Browns vs Colts Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7: Cleveland Shuts Down Minshew & Co.

The Cleveland Browns head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. The Browns are coming off an upset win against the 49ers and will try to avoid a letdown against a Colts squad that is fresh off a rough loss to the Jaguars. 

NFL odds opened with the Browns as 2-point road favorites for this clash but that line has ticked up to -3 in the Week 7 odds following the news that quarterback Deshaun Watson would return after a two-game absence.

Here are my best free NFL picks for Browns vs. Colts on October 22. 

Browns vs Colts odds

Browns vs Colts predictions

While Miami's high-octane offense is getting plenty of attention, the Cleveland Browns dominance on the other side of the ball might be just as impressive.

The Browns defense leads the NFL in EPA/play, success rate, and yards allowed per play (3.8). They are holding opponents to just 200.4 yards per game — an incredible 60.4 yards fewer than second-place Baltimore.

Not only have the Browns been preventing foes from getting into the end zone, but they are rarely allowing teams to even get within field goal range. The Browns are coming off a contest against the high-powered 49ers offense where they held them to 17 points and just 225 yards. They also limited the Bengals and Titans to just three points earlier this season.

As a matter of fact, they've allowed just two opponents to hit the 20-point plateau and both of those were because of turnovers on offense. The Steelers scored 24 points due to a pair of defensive touchdowns while the Ravens dropped 28 points thanks to an interception returned to the 10-yard line and another pick taken back inside the 40. 

Cleveland now faces a struggling Indianapolis Colts offense that ranks just 21st in EPA and 27th in success rate. Quarterback Gardner Minshew looked awful under center last week, throwing three interceptions. While Minshew is a solid backup option, he remains extremely limited as a starter.

Indy's ground game also hit a wall in Week 6 with Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor combining for 40 yards on 15 carries. Moss regressed after an outlier performance in Week 6 and Taylor isn't anywhere near 100% after sitting out 10 months due to injuries and a contract holdout.

Unless Cleveland's offense hands the Colts points on a silver platter, expect the Browns stop unit to keep them below their team total. 

My best bet: Colts team total Under 19.5 (-116 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Browns vs Colts same-game parlay

Colts u19.5 points (-140)

Result of first Colts drive: punt (-120)

Deshaun Watson Over 225.5 passing yards (-110)

+525 at bet365

Since I'm expecting Cleveland's defense to shut down the Colts offense, it makes sense to pair that with betting on the Colts to punt on their first drive. Indianapolis is a below-average team when it comes to third-down conversion rate and first downs per game. The Browns are holding foes to an incredible 10.4 first downs per game. To put that into perspective, the difference between that number and second-ranked Dallas (16.5) is more than the difference between Dallas and 29th-ranked Green Bay (21.6).

The Colts allowed just 181 passing yards to Trevor Lawrence in Week 6, but that was in large part due to game script, with Indianapolis trailing 21-3 at half. Prior to that contest, they allowed Ryan Tannehill to throw for 264 yards, gave up more than 300 passing yards to Matt Stafford and CJ Stroud, and surrendered 241 yards to Lawrence in their season opener.  

Deshaun Watson is coming off an injury to his throwing shoulder, but his passing yards total is too low here. Especially when you consider that he threw for 289 yards in his last game and had 235 yards versus a solid Steelers defense just before that.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Browns vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Browns at -2 and shortened to -1.5 before ticking up to -3 by Friday. Some books have even moved that spread over that key number to -3.5. The total ticked down from 40 to 39 but has moved back up to 40.5.

The big reason for that line movement was the news that Deshaun Watson would return at QB after missing the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. 

Watson has been underwhelming in Cleveland but he's still a much better option than backups P.J. Walker and Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Walker started last week against the 49ers and while the Browns pulled off the upset win, it was their defense and ground game that led the way.  

The Colts are coming off a 37-20 loss to the Jaguars to drop to 3-3, both straight up and against the spread. The Colts also had a key starter suffer a season-ending injury after rookie Anthony Richardson blew out his throwing shoulder. Minshew is an experienced passer who has helped keep teams afloat in the past when called upon but he can't make plays with his legs like Richardson. 

The Colts have been subpar on offense but they haven't been much better on the other side of the ball. Defensively, Indy ranks 19th in the league in EPA while also entering Week 7 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (243.7) and yards allowed per pass attempt (6.8)

Browns vs Colts betting trend to know

The Under has gone 9-2-1 in Cleveland's last 12 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Colts.

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