Browns vs Dolphins Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Waddle Burns Cleveland's Defense

The Cleveland Browns are fresh off their biggest win of the season, and they’ll try to build some momentum against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium Sunday afternoon.

Can Cleveland string together victories for the first time in 2022, or will Tua Tagovailoa and Miami make it four straight triumphs here? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Browns vs Dolphins on Sunday, November 13.

Browns vs Dolphins best odds

Browns vs Dolphins picks and predictions

The Cleveland Browns bring a mediocre pass defense into this game, ranking just 15th in yards allowed per game through the air (208.3). More advanced metrics make this unit out to be even worse than that. 

Cleveland’s passing defense is seventh-worst in the NFL in yards per attempt by opposing quarterbacks (7.4), and fourth worst in yards allowed per catch (12.0). it's also picked off opposing passers just three times — the third-worst mark in football. 

This all points to another fantastic day for the Miami Dolphins' quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who’s averaging 336.8 passing yards per game when you don’t factor in the two games in which he was forced to depart due to injury.

He’s come a long way since averaging 225.6 passing yards per game over 11 four-quarter efforts last season, but not to the point where I’d feel comfortable taking the Over on his aggressively-priced passing line of 270.5. Altering course to a receiving prop is logical, but top target Tyreek Hill’s line is always one of the highest in this area on a weekly basis. Week 10 is no different, as Hill is holding at 93.5 at most shops. However, Jaylen Waddle’s receiving yards line of 67.5 appears generous enough for Over bettors.

Waddle has cleared this mark in each of his last four games, averaging 102 yards in that span. He’s averaged 97 receiving yards per game over four home contests in 2022. 

The Alabama product ranks third in the NFL in yards per target (11.8), fifth in yards per reception (17.8), and second in juke rate (evaded tackles per touch) at 18.4%, so he makes the most of his opportunities on a weekly basis. Waddle should prove to be undervalued in this prop market against a soft Cleveland defense. 

My best bet: Jaylen Waddle Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)

Browns vs Dolphins spread analysis

The Browns’ pass defense has benefitted from some easier quarterback matchups to this point, particularly on the road, but their run of luck ends in Miami this week. 

Cleveland has played only three road games through Week 9 and faced Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, and Lamar Jackson in that span. The first two are no longer starting for their respective teams, and Jackson threw a season-low 16 times for a net of 94 yards in a winning effort. 

Tagovailoa, Hill, and Waddle are all in line for excellent performances in Week 10. But not to be overlooked are running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., who combined for 98 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in a victory over the Bears last Sunday. The Browns’ rush defense is not much to brag about, checking in 22nd in yards allowed per game (123.1). This unit has surrendered 13 rushing touchdowns — only Chicago has allowed more (15) through nine weeks.

Cleveland went into its bye week riding high with a 32-13 triumph over Cincinnati but typically struggles to sustain such momentum. The Browns are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. The Dolphins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with losing road records. 

Browns vs Dolphins Over/Under analysis

The Browns are first and foremost a rushing offense, which makes sense when you have an incredible talent like Nick Chubb in the backfield. Cleveland should be able to do enough damage on the ground against a susceptible Dolphins defense to send this game Over the total.

Miami is a modest 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.4) and is coughing up 4.6 yards per rush, tied with Cleveland for 20th in the NFL. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards through nine weeks (870 to 841), and ranks 11th in yards per carry (5.6). His 10 touchdowns on the ground currently pace the league. 

Cleveland’s Jacoby Brisset-led passing offense is a much more modest 16th by yardage, but this unit should be able to do enough to get into the red zone a few times. That might be all they need against the Fins’ shoddy stoppers, which allow a touchdown in 70% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line — 28th in the NFL. 

Look for Chubb to cross the plane at least once in what promises to be a high-scoring tilt.

Browns vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Dolphins.

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