Browns vs Seahawks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 8: Strong Flexes His Muscles

A pair of 4-2 teams collide at Lumen Field on Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks host the Cleveland Browns as Week 8 odds favorites. The Browns are coming off back-to-back victories but there are problems brewing in Cleveland, with Deshaun Watson sidelined by an injury to his throwing shoulder.

With Watson ruled out for another week, NFL odds moved the Seahawks to 4-point home favorites and the total dropped to 38. Here are my best Browns vs. Seahawks free NFL picks and predictions for October 29.

Browns vs Seahawks odds

Browns vs Seahawks predictions

With Watson on the sidelines, backup P.J. Walker has led the Cleveland Browns to back-to-back victories against the 49ers and Colts. That said, let's pump the brakes on calling Walker a decent QB, since he completed just 50% of his passes for 370 yards with zero touchdowns and three picks in those two starts. 

If this Cleveland offense wants to move the chains, it's going to have to run the ball. The Browns run at the seventh-highest rate in the league, but they're thin at the RB spot, with Jerome Ford now sidelined by an ankle injury. They had already lost Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury back in Week 2, and Ford was just starting to hit his stride after rushing for more than 70 yards in back-to-back contests. 

According to Cleveland's depth chart, the next man up is Kareem Hunt. However, Hunt wasn't on an NFL roster until being signed on September 20 and he hasn't displayed much burst over the last few years. He had 3.8 yards per carry as Cleveland's backup RB last year, and this season, he's averaging just 3.2 yards per pop. 

Instead, I'm zeroing in on the other RB on Cleveland's roster, Pierre Strong Jr. The 24-year-old is younger, faster, and capable of more explosive plays than Hunt. On just 21 carries this season, he's rushed for 102 yards and is averaging 4.33 yards after contact per attempt. 

To be fair, the Seahawks defense has been excellent against the run this year, holding opponents to just 3.5 yards per carry and ranking eighth in rush EPA. However, Cleveland has a powerful offensive line that's tied for fifth in the league in run block grade according to PFF. 

Strong might concede goal-line touches to Hunt, but he still out-snapped him 23-19 in Week 7. He should get the ball enough on Sunday to eclipse his low rushing yards total. 

My best bet: Pierre Strong Jr. Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Browns vs Seahawks same-game parlay

Pierre Strong Jr. Over 35.5 rushing yards

Geno Smith Under 223.5 passing yards

Under 40.5

50% boost available

+375 +562 at bet365

Seahawks QB Geno Smith suffers a massive drop-off in his play when he doesn't have time to throw. He ranks sixth in the league with a passing grade of 89.9 when kept clean but sits 19th with a grade of 54.7 under pressure. 

He might be under pressure an awful lot in this matchup since the Browns have the highest-graded pass rush in the league according to PFF, while the Seahawks are 22nd in pass block rate. Cleveland's defense had an outlier of a performance last week, surrendering 305 passing yards to Gardner Minshew, but they're still holding foes to a league-low 149.2 passing yards per game.

With both teams playing well on defense (Seattle is ninth in defensive EPA while Cleveland is first) and the Browns starting Walker under center, I originally loved the Under in this matchup. However, we're not getting the best number at this part of the week so I'll buy a couple of points back with this SGP play where I'll throw in the Under 40.5. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Browns vs Seahawks spread and Over/Under analysis

The Seahawks opened as 2.5-point faves in this matchup, but after it was confirmed that Watson would be sidelined, the line moved to Seattle -3.5 and is up to -4 at some books as of Thursday. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 40.5 to as low as 38.

Watson hasn't looked great since making his highly-anticipated Cleveland debut last December. He did put together his best game as a Brown in Week 3, but has thrown just five passes since as he deals with an injury to his throwing shoulder. The Browns were crushed by the Bengals in Week 4 with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center but rebounded with back-to-back wins against the San Fran and Indianapolis with Walker at the helm. 

Walker is a subpar QB but he's still much better than Thompson-Robinson. However, his ability to win games will be tested by those injuries at RB — especially against a Seahawks defense that has made massive improvements this year. The Seahawks were embarrassed in their season opener but have won four of five games since, going 3-1-1 ATS during that span. 

Browns vs Seahawks betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in Seattle's last six games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Seahawks.

Browns vs Seahawks game info

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