Before we get to the weight of the final slate of the NFL season, we have one last Monday Night Football matchup in Week 17.
The Cleveland Browns come to Heinz Field to take on the rival Pittsburgh Steelers – an AFC North grudge match that means very little to the postseason picture but is packed with pride and perhaps a proper Steel City send-off for Ben Roethlisberger.
Still not sold?
Well, how about piquing that interest by playing some Monday Night Football props. There’s a massive menu of alternative odds and options, and these are our favorite free NFL prop picks for Browns at Steelers on January 3.
Browns vs Steelers prop picks
- Pittsburgh 1Q Team Total: Under 3.5 (-130)
- D'Ernest Johnson TD anytime (+375)
- Roethlisberger Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Browns vs Steelers MNF props
Slow motion
The Pittsburgh offense hasn’t scored in the first quarter in any of its last four games, eating rotten goose eggs in the initial 15 minutes going back to Week 13.
In fact, the Steelers have mustered a mere six total points in the opening frame in their last six outings (a pair of field goals), average only 2.3 1Q points per game, and rank 29th in first-quarter offense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Some of that early ineptitude has to do with Pittsburgh’s pop-gun attack (30th in 1Q EPA per play and dead-last in 1Q success rate 37.2%) but also with the pace of this playbook, pegged among the most methodical in football.
Tack on some chilly winter weather at Heinz Field tonight, with “feels like” temperatures in the low 20s, and it could take the Steelers even longer to warm up. Books have their first-quarter team total at 3.5 points for MNF – a total this team has gone Over just four times all season.
PICK: Pittsburgh 1Q Team Total: Under 3.5 (-130 at Bet365)
The Importance of Being D'Ernest
Cleveland has nothing to play for in its final two games, which could have head coach Kevin Stefanski protecting key talents and kicking the tires on others. Running back D'Ernest Johnson is one of those players who could get extra reps as the Browns play out the schedule.
He stepped in with four carries for 58 yards on the ground along with two targets and one catch for eight receiving yards in the loss to Green Bay on Christmas, picking up slack with Kareem Hunt out due to injury. Hunt is currently questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle injury and a meaningless matchup in the cold may not be the best plan of action for one of the Browns’ biggest weapons.
Props are thin for many skill positions, so good luck tracking down a rushing total for Johnson. However, he’s on the board to score a touchdown at some point during tonight’s primetime game. Johnson only has two touchdowns on the season – one of which came against Pittsburgh in Week 8.
Some books like DraftKings have his TD anytime prop padded at +175 (same price as Hunt) while Bet365 is offering a Johnson TD with a payout as high as +375.
PICK: D'Ernest Johnson TD anytime (+375 at Bet365)
Bye Bye Ben
We couldn’t do a Monday Night Football prop picks piece for Week 17 and ignore Roethlisberger’s Steel City swan song.
I fully believe that should the Steelers show well tonight, Roethlisberger could sit out the Week 18 finale and allow the team to get a closer look at QB2 Mason Rudolph in next Sunday’s game at Baltimore. With that in mind, Big Ben could have the green light in primetime.
Head coach Mike Tomlin recently talked about letting Roethlisberger run the offense, especially on opening drives, since the Steelers have been plagued with slow starts (as mentioned above) during those scripted series.
Matt Canada’s offense is conservative, to say the least, ranked fourth in pass attempts per game but with an average of just 6.8 intended air yards per attempt (third-lowest in NFL). Roethlisberger threw the ball 34 times in the win over Cleveland on Halloween – which is where his passing attempts total is parked for Week 17 - but has seen his activity rise and fall the past month.
He’s topped 34 pass attempts in four of his last six games, mostly due to trailing on the scoreboard, but should he have the “keys to the car” tonight, Roethlisberger will make the most of that freedom and go out throwing.
PICK: Roethlisberger Over 34.5 pass attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
