The final Monday Night Football game of the 2021 NFL season takes place between the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers tonight.
Cleveland has been eliminated from the playoffs but Pittsburgh is holding on by a thread — and longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will likely be playing his final home game at Heinz Field. Big Ben has gone a commanding 25-2-1 against Cleveland in his career and oddsmakers are expecting him to add to that tally with NFL betting lines jumping the fence to install the Steelers as 2.5-point home faves after they opened as underdogs.
Here are our best free Browns vs. Steelers NFL betting picks and predictions for Monday, January 3.
Browns vs Steelers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Browns opened as 3-point road favorites but that line shifted to a pick'em on Sunday night after Cleveland was officially eliminated from postseason action before swinging all the way to favor the Steelers at -2.5 by Monday. The total opened at 41 before ticking up to 43.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Browns vs Steelers predictions
Predictions made on 01/03/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Browns vs Steelers game info
• Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Monday, January 3, 2022
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Browns at Steelers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Browns: John Johnson III S (Out), Ronnie Harrison Jr. S (Out), Troy Hill CB (Out), Kareem Hunt RB (Out), Jack Conklin OT (Out).
Steelers: Buddy Johnson ILB (Out), Chris Wormley DE (Out), Joe Schobert ILB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in Cleveland's last six games on grass while going 8-3 in Pittsburgh's previous 11 on grass. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Steelers.
Browns vs Steelers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Browns are coming off back-to-back losses and have been eliminated from the postseason after the Chargers won on Sunday. Cleveland was derailed by COVID-19 and various injuries in the last two weeks but covered the spread both times and now looks much healthier heading into this Week 17 divisional showdown.
The Steelers have a 7-7-1 record and will need to win out and get a lot of help if they want to make the playoffs for the 12th time in Roethlisberger's career. They've dropped four of their last six, including a 36-10 beatdown at the hands of the surging Chiefs last Sunday. The Steelers edged the Browns 15-10 as 5.5-point road pups in Week 8 but could find it much tougher to come away with the victory this time around.
Roethlisberger is a legend who will likely wind up enshrined in Canton, but the 39-year-old is nowhere near the passer he was in his prime and injuries have taken their toll. Big Ben ranks just 27th in the league in average yards per pass attempt (6.6) this season and has thrown for fewer than 160 yards in each of his last two outings.
The Browns are vulnerable in the secondary but Roethlisberger won't be able to exploit that weakness, especially with the Browns' powerful pass rush likely pressuring him into quick throws and check-downs as they rip through a porous Steelers offensive line.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will have trouble containing a Cleveland attack that ranks second in the league in offensive rush DVOA and piles up 144.9 yards per game on the ground.
The Steelers are 30th in the league in defensive rush DVOA and allow a league-high 142.7 rushing yards per game. They could be even worse with defensive end Chris Wormley and starting inside linebackers Joe Schobert and Devin Bush on the reserve/COVID-19 list, while backup linebacker Buddy Johnson is out with a foot injury.
This line has seen massive movement, mostly due to Cleveland's perceived lack of motivation after being eliminated. However, this has become a heated rivalry and plenty of Browns players have something to prove.
Although Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb might not receive his usual workload, the Browns have great depth at that position and a strong offensive line. Expect the three-headed monster of Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson to shred the Steelers defense and back the Browns to ruin Roethlisberger's goodbye party.
Prediction: Browns ML (+130)
Over/Under analysis
There's nothing sexier than a matchup featuring a pair of superstar quarterbacks, but this game is the exact opposite with Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield ranking 24th and 25th respectively in QBR.
However, this game does feature two of the best defensive players in the NFL with Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt leading the league with 17.5 sacks and Browns defensive end Myles Garrett ranking third with 15. Both teams can get after the QB, which will hinder a couple of already limited passing attacks.
The Steelers also rank just 28th in the league in rush DVOA and although rookie running back Najee Harris has impressed at times, he's averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and can't find holes with Pittsburgh's poor blocking up front.
The only area where we see either team succeeding on offense is via Cleveland running the ball, but that run-heavy approach will likely soak up the clock and result in the slower-paced game that Cleveland prefers. With the Under 5-1 in the Browns' last six games on grass, back another Under on Monday night.
Prediction: Under 43 (-110)
Best bet
We mentioned that the Steelers running game hasn't been very efficient. Efficient or not, Harris just keeps getting the rock. The first-round pick out of Alabama has managed to be productive despite an inept offensive line and is coming off a game against the Chiefs where he rushed for 93 yards on 19 carries.
The Over/Under on Harris' rushing attempts total tonight is set at 18.5, a number he has surpassed in eight of his last 11 games, which includes a season-high 26 carries for 91 yards against the Browns on Halloween. And in two of the contests where he was held below that number, the Steelers fell way behind early and had to abandon the run game.
This game should be much more competitive and with no real competition for touches in Pittsburgh's backfield, Harris should eclipse this number.
Pick: Najee Harris Over 18.5 rush attempts (+100)
