All eyes will be on the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday night as these two hopeful division winners meet in Week 1 for the second straight season.
With all the talk about Tom Brady and the offensive line issues in Tampa, I’m looking at the Cowboys’ problems up front and how the possibility of Dak Prescott not having much time vs. this Tampa blitz could force Dallas to play behind the sticks.
I’m also looking at how Jerry Jones’ love for Ezekiel Elliott affects Tony Pollard. Here are my three best prop picks for Buccaneers vs. Cowboys.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys prop picks
- Pollard Under 30.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Prescott Under 13.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Pollard Over 10.5 yards longest reception (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF props
The Zeke show
I already went into full length about this in my weekly props picks on how Jerry Jones’ lust for Ezekiel Elliott is not great news for Tony Pollard out of the gates.
The Dallas owner has been quite vocal about how his team goes as Zeke goes and when he's the one who greenlit the running back's $90 million contract, there's a reason he wants to ride his RB1 — even with Pollard possibly being the more explosive back.
Elliott will for sure be getting the opening drives in both halves and Pollard might just enter the season as a change-off-pace back — which would not help any of his Overs in Week 1 vs. a tough opponent.
The Cowboys face one of the best run defenses in the Buccaneers — who allowed just 91.6 rushing yards per game last season — and who held Elliott to 11 carries and 33 yards and Pollard to 14 yards on three carries in Week 1 a season ago.
The Cowboys also had a much stronger O-line in 2021. Gone this season are Connor Williams (15 starts at LG last season) and La’El Collins (10 starts at RT last season) while All-Pro Tyron Smith is out with a serious injury.
This is still a decent O-line considering the situation, but facing Tampa who only ran the ball 18 times last year, and Dallas likely struggling to move the chains easily with a weak receiving group, Pollard’s opportunities in the running game will be very limited Sunday night — especially with a very healthy Elliott.
Tony Pollard Prop: Under 30.5 rushing yards (-110)
Danger with Dak
The Cowboys are reportedly signing 40-year-old left tackle, Jason Peters, which shows the state of the Cowboy’s O-line and backside protection for Dak Prescott.
Slotted into that role for Week 1 is rookie Tyler Smith who was drafted as a developmental project with many analysts who have stated that he’s a raw talent. Now he’ll be protecting the blindside vs. a defense that blitzed at the highest rate a season ago and created the second-most pressure on opposing QBs.
Some are projecting the NFL game to be too fast for the rookie out of the gates, and considering he was penalized 25 times over his last 21 games at Tulsa, things could go south on the left side early and often on Sunday night.
Tyler Smith is currently very raw. Undisciplined hands. Chaotic timing leads to balance issues.
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) April 29, 2022
But...
I know two teams (behind DAL) that were targeting Smith in the 1st. And I get the thinking for DAL. Starts at LG in 2022 and is the LT-in-waiting behind Tyron as he develops. https://t.co/QUY6jstVt6
Not to be a pessimist, but Prescott also popped up on the injury report midweek with an ankle injury which might not be anything, but combined with the matchup, is painting a grey outlook on Dak’s mobility and time in the pocket Sunday night.
So how can we correlate this to a betting market? QB rushing yards. Dak could be under pressure all day, and if he decides to escape the pocket on an ankle that maybe isn’t 100%, this incredibly fast Tampa defense will hunt him down. The potential beating could also deter him from taking more punishment down the field.
Lastly, McCarthy will unlikely be drawing up designed runs for his QB as the next option after Prescott is a question mark after the team cut all three guys competing for the job. Will Grier and Cooper Rush both got signed to the practice squad so the organization has little trust in whoever backs up Dak in Week 1. Some books have already moved to 12.5.
Dak Prescott Prop: Under 13.5 rushing yards (-110)
Third and long
Just because we are down on Tony Pollard’s rushing outlook, doesn’t mean we can’t hit him on his longest reception total.
Dak could be seeing a ton of pressure with his new O-line, and with the rookie left tackle’s propensity for penalties, Dallas could be facing some third-and-longs and won’t have the time to go deep. So what will Kelln Moore draw up? Likely a screen pass to his third-down back which, for the most part, should be Pollard.
Facing a third and 25 is the easiest way for a back to break off a gain of 10-plus yards in the screen game while the defense is happy to give up those yards while still forcing a 4th down.
Pollard had four grabs for 29 yards with a long of 11 in the Week 1 showdown vs. the Bucs last year and tied for 10th in the league in yards after contact per game (receiving) despite seeing just over 3.0 targets per game.
The heavy blitzing of Tampa should also help in the passing game with Pollard who could see some open room ahead of him on each reception. Tampa gave up 45.9 receiving yards per game to opposing backs a season ago which was a Top 5 mark.
Tony Pollard Prop: Over 10.5 yards longest reception (-115)
