The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in Week 16. The Bucs have been clicking on offense and a big contributor in recent weeks has been rookie wideout Jalen McMillan.
My NFL picks are betting on another strong performance from him, while I'm also backing CeeDee Lamb and fading Rico Dowdle with my favorite Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player props for December 22.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF props
Lamb Over 73.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
McMillan Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)- Dowdle Under 71.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF props
Prop bet #1: CeeDee Lamb Over 73.5 receiving yards
Cooper Rush might be throwing him the ball now, but CeeDee Lamb is still balling out. The Dallas Cowboys All-Pro wide receiver had six catches for 93 yards against the Bengals in Week 14 before snagging nine of 13 targets for 116 yards last week.
Lamb will be able to gain separation against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is 30th in the league in dropback success rate. Especially with Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr. ruled out for Sunday.
The Bucs were routinely getting burned by No. 1 WRs earlier in the season and have been fortunate not to face any top wideouts since the start of November. The best wide receivers they've seen since then have been DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Malik Nabers, and three of those receivers had more than 80 yards.
Prop bet #2: Jalen McMillan Over 37.5 receiving yards
The Bucs suffered a blow when they lost WR Chris Godwin to a season-ending injury in Week 7. However, Jalen McMillan has emerged as Tampa Bay's second-best receiving option over the last couple of weeks.
It took some time before the rookie wideout was able to adjust to the pro game and build rapport with Baker Mayfield, but he seems to have turned the corner. McMillan hauled in four of seven targets for 59 yards in Week 14 before racking up 75 yards on five catches last week.
Dallas is 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed per game (157.4) to wide receivers. The Cowboys have a high-caliber cornerback in DaRon Bland but will likely use him to cover Pro Bowl wideout Mike Evans.
Depth at CB is a big problem for Dallas since Trevon Diggs recently joined Caelen Carson and Josh Butler on the IR. That means a favorable matchup for McMillan, who should continue to see plenty of targets with tight end Cade Otton doubtful with a knee injury.
Prop bet #3: Rico Dowdle Under 71.5 rushing yards
Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle has been on fire, rumbling for more than 110 yards in three straight games.
That said, those contests came against Giants, Bengals, and Panthers. The Panthers are last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (173), and the Giants are second-last (143.7), while the Bengals are 30th in defensive rush EPA. It will be a big step up to go from those run defenses to a Tampa Bay stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA.
The Bucs are allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs — the seventh-lowest number in the league. The Bucs also have an average scoring margin of +15.8 ppg in their eight wins so there's a chance they get up big early and force Dallas to abandon the run.
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