Buccaneers vs Vikings Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Evans Bails Out Baker in Minnesota

The Tom Brady era is over, and it will be Baker Mayfield leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Week 1 as a 6-point dog vs. the Minnesota Vikings and their new defensive philosophies. The total has held firm at 45.5. 

With the Bucs sitting as decent dogs in the NFL odds and playing indoors vs. a very inexperienced secondary that is transitioning to new DC Brian Flores, is there a lot to like in Tampa’s passing game despite the usual distrust in Mayfield?

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Vikings on September 10.

Buccaneers vs Vikings odds

Buccaneers vs Vikings predictions

The Vikings allowed the second-most passing yards per game a season ago, and over 280 per game at home. This season, three of their Top 4 corners are either rookies or in their second year, and considering they’ve been a predominantly soft zone team over the last two years, the switch to a more blitz-heavy system from new DC Brian Flores could create a ton of issues one-on-one downfield with this inexperienced secondary. 

Flores has been a blitz-first defensive coach over his career, but he’s also had better personal in Miami and Pittsburgh. Things could be different in Minnesota where his current outside corners have a combined 162 NFL snaps and two starts between them. Mike Evans and his 6-foot-5 frame could be winning one-on-one battles all game long for the Buccaneers.

Baker Mayfield is a tough quarterback to trust, but he has shown very good chemistry with both Evans and Chris Godwin so far, and his deep-ball completion rates are better than assumed. Over his five-year career, Mayfield has three Top 8 seasons in deep-ball completion percentage, and he ranked eighth in 2022 in pressure completion percentage. 

If a now-healthier Tampa O-line can give Mayfield some time and he can keep the knocked-down balls to a minimum, the game is shaping up to be one where Mayfield and Evans could have big days.

Being a 6-point dog helps, as does the indoor environment, but the Minnesota offense is going to push the pace and could force Tampa to play catch-up early. There have been reports out of camp that the Vikings are happy winning games this year 40-30. As a NFL player prop bettor, I’m down with that. 

I’m high on Evans’ Over 53.5 receiving yards. THE BLITZ is projecting 68.03. His matchups vs. 5-foot-10 rookie Mehki Blackmon or two-game starter Akayleb Evans on the outside are prime for big gains — especially if Flores is putting his inexperienced DBs on an island with a heavy amount of blitzes. 

My best bet: Mike Evans Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buccaneers vs Vikings same-game parlay

Evans o53.5 rec yds

Hockenson o47.5 rec yds

Over 45.5

+450 at bet365

There is plenty of correlation with the total and receiving Overs, but I'm projecting another shootout indoors in Minnesota. They Vikings were the best Over team in football by far last year and are looking like another solid squad to expect points on both sides of the ball when they play.

Evans' matchup is prime with his big body vs. these shorter and inexperienced Minnesota DBs. He is one of the more underrated receivers in all of football and has been a 1,000-yard receiver in every one of his nine NFL seasons. 

T.J. Hockenson was a target magnet last year and averaged nearly 10 targets a game after coming over from Detroit. If he even sniffs that number Sunday, this yardage total could be a first-half winner.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Buccaneers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis

The Vikings opened at -6.5 at most places and hit as high as -7 in a few spots, but have settled back down to -6 heading into the weekend. The total has also stayed put at 45.5, where it has been since late August across the board.

Tampa is without Brady, and Mayfield won the starting job over Kyle Trask. It was the heaviest pass offense in football last year, but will likely lean more on the run this season and will have a stronger and healthier O-line than last season where injuries derailed it. 

The Bucs added second-round rookie Cody Mauch and free agent Matt Feiler to the O-line while Ryan Jensen (done for the season again) will be replaced with Robert Hainsey, who started 17 games last year. It might be a disrespected offense that could score some points with Evans and Godwin facing an inexperienced secondary.

It’s easy to assume that this Minnesota offense will push the field and pace in Kevin O’Connell’s second year as the head coach. Hockenson will have a full year to digest a difficult offense after he averaged 9.4 targets and 56 yards per game after coming over from Detroit. The offense also added first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison. With the shape and inexperience of the secondary, the Vikings could be the best Over team in football just as they were last year at 12-6 O/U and 8-1 O/U as a home favorite. 

The Vikings’ defense also lost six starters from last year while the Bucs lost three starters, including two members of the defensive line in Akiem Hicks and William Gholston. 

With an indoor setting, Minnesota being a high pace-of-play team, solid matchups for both offenses, and a lower 45.5-point total, this looks like one of my favorite Over plays of Week 1. It just isn’t getting enough action because of the Mayfield stink attached to it. Ignore that. Minnesota will be in shootouts all year with this defense. 

Buccaneers vs Vikings betting trend to know

The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.90 Units / 62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Vikings.

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