NFL bettors will want to treat the Buffalo Bills like a carton of milk one day after its expiration date: It’s probably still good but give it a cautionary sniff before consuming.
The Bills once again came up short of their Super Bowl dreams in 2023, getting bounced by the Kansas City Chiefs for the third time in the past four postseasons. And while Kansas City and other AFC contenders like Baltimore and Cincinnati stand strong in 2024, my NFL picks are not bullish on the Bills.
There are notable departures on both sides of the ball, including a new-look offense and a revamped receiving corps. The defense is also down bodies and may not have the same bite that changed games last season. But Josh Allen is still at quarterback and that keeps the Bills ahead of the curve most Sundays.
The offseason odds aren’t predicting a stumble, with Buffalo tagged with a win total of 10.5 (Under -155) and look-ahead lines setting the Bills as favorites in 11 games. This comes despite a strength of schedule that ranks Top 10 via 2023 win percentage and 2024 projected wins, with the AFC East providing more pushback.
Has the milk gone sour in Orchard Park? We find out in my 2024 Buffalo Bills NFL betting preview.
Buffalo Bills odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,500 |
| Win conference | +800 |
| Win division | +180 |
| Make playoffs | -175 |
| Over 10.5 wins | +130 |
| Under 10.5 wins | -155 |
Best futures bet: Second in AFC East (+170)
The offseason sentiment around the Buffalo Bills isn’t pretty, reflected in the “division finishing position” market which has Buffalo at +170 to finish either first or second in the AFC East. And depending on how Aaron Rodgers performs in New York, even a Top 2 spot isn’t cut and dry. The one thing that threatens a fifth straight division title for Buffalo is the start of the season.
The Bills’ first six games put them on the road four times and features Arizona, Miami, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Houston, and N.Y. Jets. The Dolphins and Jets have a much softer entry into 2024 and a slow start from the Bills — combined with four years of broken dreams — could buckle the knees of this franchise before we even get to Halloween.
Buffalo Bills at a glance: Table the Super Bowl conversation
The Bills are the seventh overall Super Bowl favorite, which is the furthest this team has been down the board in a few seasons. Buffalo recognized the same shit wasn’t going to work, so the offense received a facelift while the defense is asking a lot of guys to step up. Josh Allen for MVP has life (+850) if he can keep the Bills in contention.
What will win bets: Offense
Joe Brady showed what he could do after getting the keys to the offense in the second half of last season, with Buffalo averaging 27 points over the final seven regular season games. The downfield attack with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis is done, replaced by a quick-hitting approach that leans into taller targets.
The offensive line enters 2024 among the Top 10 blocking units in the NFL, which will help the rushing game gain traction. James Cook was a monster on the ground in 2023 and Brady will look to utilize Allen’s wheels as well. Buffalo was No. 4 in red-zone touchdown rate last year and will be great inside the 20-yard line again.
What will lose bets: Defense
Buffalo’s advanced stats lumped the defense into the middle of the pack in 2023, with the Bills getting a boost in terms of game-changing plays. They finished with 54 sacks and the sixth highest pressure rate, helping generate 30 total takeaways – third most in the league. Granted, the stop unit faced some bad offensive opposition, including the Patriots (twice), Jets (twice), Raiders, Commanders, Giants, Broncos, and Herbert-less Chargers.
Those 2023 numbers will be hard to replicate with the departures on defense, the health of some key players, and an uptick in opposition. Bobby Babich is taking over the play calling from head coach Sean McDermott, but that sets up a power struggle early in the season considering the competition on tap. If the Bills can’t get the same pressure up front and create opportunities for takeaways, Buffalo becomes a bottom-third defense.
Buffalo Bills schedule + spot bet: Ticking time bomb
The first six weeks of the schedule will make or break the Bills. Buffalo is an underdog in only six games, according to look-ahead lines, and four of those spreads come in the opening six weeks. It’s catching points at Miami, at Baltimore, at Houston, and at New York. A 2-4 SU start isn’t too farfetched.
Based on that possibility, I like a flyer on Sean McDermott to be the first head coach fired in 2024. It’s a +1,400 long shot but McDermott hasn’t been able to get Buffalo over the hump and has also had his blips, like praising the 9/11 terrorists when explaining teamwork. The axe may not fall in Week 7 but if that slow start sends the Bills into a tailspin, the Week 11 date with the Chiefs — with the bye week looming — could be the nail in the coffin.
Look-ahead lines install the Bills as favorites in 11 games and six of those spreads sit at a field goal or shorter. Since taking over as head coach, McDermott is 16-6 SU and 13-7-2 ATS as a fave of three points or less. In fact, Buffalo has 12 games with field goal spreads (-3 to +3) which means the potential for plenty of drama.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs Arizona |
| 2 | Thursday, September 12 | @ Miami |
| 3 | Monday, September 23 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Baltimore |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Houston |
| 6 | Monday, October 14 | @ New York (J) |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Tennessee |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Seattle |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Miami |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Indianapolis |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Kansas City |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. San Francisco |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Los Angeles (R) |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Detroit |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. New England |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. New York (J) |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ New England |
Spot bet: Week 6 @ New York Jets (+1.5, 47.5)
That grueling start to the schedule concludes in East Rutherford on Monday Night Football in Week 6. This meeting with Gang Green with be Buffalo’s third straight road game on the heels of stops in Baltimore and Houston the two weeks prior.
McDermott is 21-5 SU versus the division since Tom Brady left New England, but just 13-12-1 ATS in those AFC East encounters. Put Buffalo on the road in a divisional game and it’s 8-4 SU but 6-6 ATS the past four years.
Allen won’t score more
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +900 |
| To win OPOY | +4,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1,200 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +1,800 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +800 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 27.5 passing TD | +110 |
| Under 27.5 passing TD | -130 |
| 30+ passing TD | +160 |
| 35+ passing TD | +700 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,750.5 passing yards | -120 |
| Under 3,750.5 passing yards | +100 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +160 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +800 |
| Over 480.5 rushing yards | -120 |
| Under 480.5 rushing yards | +100 |
Best prop: Under 9.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-120)
Allen is one of the best rushing QBs in the NFL and dashed for 15 touchdowns on the ground last season after topping out at nine rushing TDs over his previous five seasons. Allen was second among QBs in red-zone carries with all 15 scores coming inside the 20-yard line.
This year’s team has several options in the red zone, starting with the tight end combo of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and including taller WRs in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins. Brady’s offense wants to get the ball out quicker, which means Allen won’t feel the time in pocket ticking and be tempted to take off as much.
Player projections range from 8.9 to as low as five rushing touchdowns from Allen, staying Under his inflated total of 9.5 touchdowns on the ground for 2024. The schedule also features some stingy defenses, especially in the red zone with the Jets and Patriots twice, Baltimore, Kansas City, Tennessee, and San Francisco ranking Top 11 in RZ touchdown rate allowed.
Buffalo Bills trend: First Three Weeks
I’ve harped on and on about the Bills’ challenging start to the season, but the first three weeks are pretty soft compared to the Week 4 to Week 6 slog. Buffalo opens at home to Arizona, visits Miami on Thursday Night Football, and hosts Jacksonville — all winnable games.
McDermott is great at getting his guys going early on, boasting a career 15-6 SU record and 13-7-1 ATS count in the opening three weeks of action since 2017. That includes a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in the first three games last year, with the loss being the weird Week 1 game with the Jets in which Rodgers was injured.
Buffalo Bills’ first three games
- Week 1 vs. Arizona (-6.5)
- Week 2 @ Miami TNF (+1)
- Week 3 vs. Jacksonville (-5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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