The Chicago Bears’ first game with Thomas Brown as interim head coach didn’t go as planned, but Caleb Williams is well positioned to get back on track against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.
With Minnesota’s style of defense, Williams should be able to put up impressive numbers in the same way he did against the Vikings the first time. Our Caleb Williams odds analysis and NFL player prop picks for Monday, December 16 expect the rookie to continue to flash his potential.
Caleb Williams MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Caleb Williams Over 223.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Caleb Williams Over 223.5 passing yards
Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing TDs
Caleb Williams Over 24.5 rushing yards
(+468 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Caleb Williams MNF prop pick
My best bet
Caleb Williams Over 223.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
While it hasn’t been the exact rookie season many in the Windy City hoped for with the No. 1 pick, one thing is clear; Caleb Williams is the most talented QB the Chicago Bears have had since Jim McMahon.
Arguably Williams’ most explosive game of the year came in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings. In the 30-27 OT loss, while nearly leading an improbable comeback, he managed to throw for 340 with two scores and five big-time throws, per PFF.
Despite Brian Flores’ defenses having a history of taking advantage of younger QBs with his maniacal blitzing style, Williams frequently beat the blitz to expose the unprotected backend with a combo of his ability to extend plays and make throws off-platform.
Flores doesn’t mind playing this all-or-nothing style because it ultimately works, but it also allows QBs to rack up serious passing yards numbers. Minnesota is allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game in the NFL (250.6), that includes allowing at least 260 passing yards to opposing QBs in four straight games.
In fact, the only starting QBs to throw for fewer than 223.5 yards against Minnesota this season are Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, and CJ Stroud (who was pulled early in a blowout loss).
It’s safe to say Williams is a far superior QB to Flacco and the Joneses. And after a sporadic start to the season, he’s really started to pick up his play in recent weeks.
Even with his struggles against the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday, Williams has been on another level since Brown was moved to interim offensive coordinator in Week 11. In the four games with Brown as interim OC/head coach, Williams is 18th in EPA per play among QBs. From Week 1 to Week 10, he was just 27th in EPA per play.
Williams only threw for Over 223.5 passing yards twice in those first nine games of the season, and he also accounted for just eight big-time throws. But he’s accomplished the feat three times in his last four games while racking up eight big-time throws.
Given the Bears are a 7-point road underdog, it’s fair to assume Chicago will likely be playing from behind for a good chunk of this game too. That will only help Williams’ cause.
Caleb Williams MNF same-game parlay
Caleb Williams Over 223.5 passing yards
Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing TDs
Caleb Williams Over 24.5 rushing yards
It’s not shocking to see Williams’ passing TDs line set at 1.5, but the odds being +182 for him to hit the Over certainly is with those odds implying just a 35.46% probability he’ll cash that leg of this parlay.
However, he’s thrown for two-plus TDs in three straight games, including against the Vikings in Week 12. Williams has gone Over 1.5 passing TDs six times this year, but clearly he’s been in more of a rhythm as of late and he should be capable of hitting the Over on this line.
It hasn’t just been what Williams has done with his arm in recent weeks that’s been impressive either. He’s emerged as a true scrambling threat as a rookie.
Williams has gone Over 24.5 rushing yards in four straight games and seven of his last nine. Over that nine-game stretch, he’s averaging 36.2 rushing yards, and he sits sixth in the league in rushing yards among QBs (405).
While Williams isn’t known necessarily as a runner, he’s doing more than just taking what’s there, he’s creating with the ball in his hands. The USC product is 10th in rushing yards after contact among QBs (171) and sixth in missed tackles forced (14).
With Flores' penchant for blitzing, Williams should be able to scramble and pick up chunk yardage as a runner to hit this Over.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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