Cardinals vs Commanders Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Many Men, Not Many Rushing Yards

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season and even with eight other 1:00 p.m starts, bettors will find a reason to tune into this game. 

NFL odds has the Washington Commanders as -7 point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals with the lowest total on the board of 38. 

With new OC Eric Bieniemy in town and running back Brian Robinson showing very little with a bell-cow workload in 2022, should bettors be looking to hit the Under on the Washington runner with a possible bigger timeshare and an offense that might struggle to move the sticks?

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Commanders. 

Cardinals vs Commanders odds

Cardinals vs Commanders predictions

Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson got a bell-cow workload in 2022 vs. an easy strength of schedule that ultimately got his OC Scott Turner fired.

Robinson ran to 3.9 yards per carry which ranked outside the the top 35 among NFL RBs. He had five games of 20-plus carries and failed to reach 100 yards in any of them.

His breakaway speed is also concerning if his carries are diminished as he will struggle to get big yards. In 2022, Robinson had just six carries of 15-plus yards, and that equated to a 2.9% breakaway run rate which ranked 46th in football. 

If Antonio Gibson cuts into his workload Sunday, Robinson will struggle to get 60 yards without seeing more than 15 carries.

Plays could be an issue with a Sam Howell-led offense as he is arguably the worst starting quarterback in Week 1. There might not be a ton of plays for the Commanders and with their O-line issues (their offseason moves were more lateral than anything), Washington could be seeing plenty of passing downs.

Lastly, the Arizona Carindals offense is absolutely going to struggle to move the ball — hence the Commanders’ 7-point spread. This might seem advantageous for the Washington run game, but if the Commanders are getting the ball near mid-field consistently, there just won’t be a ton of yards with the short field.

Robinson had a huge workload last year and did nothing with and now with a possible bigger timeshare, the Under on his 58.5 rushing yards is showing a lot of value. THE BLITZ is projecting 52 yards yards for Robinson while Gibson is projecting Over his rushing total of 30.5 yards. 

My best bet: Brian Robinson Under 58.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Cardinals vs Commanders same-game parlay

Brian Robinson Under 58.5 rushing yards

ARI team total Under 16.5

Sam Howell anytime TD

+1,200 at bet365

Let's go big on a game that could be tough on the eyes.

Arizona and Josh Dobbs are in a bad place Sunday to run a competent offense with so many new pieces to the system and possible injuries.  

Robinson could lose some carries to Antonio Gibson with a new OC in the works and he wasn't very effective last year even with a ton of carries. 

Howell to score a TD is really boosting this SGP which has true odds of +1024. Howell ran five times in his only start last year for 35 yards and a score. He also ran for over 800 yards and 11 scores in his final year as a Tar Heel. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cardinals vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis

This might be a battle of the two worst starting Week 1 QBs but the Commanders have been a substantial favorite since opening and hit -7 at Pinnacle in late August after sitting at -6.5 previously. 

It might be tough to trust Washington QB Sam Howell as VP of risk at SuperBook, Ed Salmons, has him worth -0.29 points (spread) vs. his backup, but this Washington defense is going to smother the Joshua Dobbs-led Arizona offense. Howell just needs to not turn over the ball and Washington can cover and still score 21 points.

Dobbs was brought in on August 24, meaning he has not had a lot of time with this offense that's already with a new defensive-minded and monotone head coach in Jonathan Gannon and a new OC in Drew Petzing (Browns’ QB coach in 2022). So not only is it a crash course on Dobbs, but everyone in the entire offense is trying to comprehend a new offense that has no track record. 

Dobbs has made two starts in his career (both against the Titans) and totaled 411 yards, two TDs to two INTs, and a 73.8 completion percentage vs. the league’s worst pass defense. His team totaled 29 points and lost both games. 

The Arizona O-line added some talent but ultimately is still an untrustworthy group vs. an elite Washington defense that finished fourth in success rate a year ago. It could also have Chase Young back after he played just three games last year.  

If bettors are unwilling to trust Howell with seven points, the Arizona team total Under 14.5 is in play. At the time of writing, Pinnacle had an Under 16.5 at -147 which doesn’t go across any key numbers in 15 and 16. Some books are hanging 13.5. 

Howell started one game last year as a rookie and completed 11 of his 19 passes for 169 yards vs. a Dallas team that sat everyone. 

To make matters worse for the Over and the Arizona offense in general, tight end Zach Ertz was limited Wednesday and is coming off an ACL/MCL injury from back in Week 10 while No.1 WR Marquise Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury and was also limited at practice Wednesday.

It’s a tough total to judge, especially when you look at the 7-point spread. Sub-40 totals are not frequent but this game has the potential to be very ugly. With the offenses unlikely to move the ball consistently, we could see plenty of punts in teams’ own ends. 

Arizona currently rosters a punter with zero NFL kicks to his name Nolan Cooney who has bounced around the league for a couple of years without finding a home. Washington will use Tress Way who finished 18th in yards per punt in 2022 but sixth in punts inside the 20 percentage. Washington will have a significant special teams advantage and I’d expect the offense will be dealing with solid starting field position for the entirety of the game. 

This is also a game featuring two brand-new offensive coordinators. 

Cardinals vs Commanders betting trend to know

The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in one of their last 14 games (-13.00 Units / -86% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Commanders.

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