The Carolina Panthers were a blackhole for bankrolls in 2023, finishing 2-15 SU and 4-11-2 against the spread, the worst bet in the NFL.
The funny thing about bad teams is that they eventually get so bad, they become good bets. The market swings so drastically that even the worst wagers can’t collapse under all those extra points.
We’ve seen the ATS fortunes of bad football teams flip-flop season to season, and the Panthers definitely have the point-packed lines to do so in 2024. Carolina is an underdog in every game, drawing an average spread of +4.
Futures odds and win totals don’t have much faith in the Panthers making a 180 pivot under new head coach Dave Canales, but can Carolina at least cover some spreads?
It’s a hell of a question, and I try to answer it in my 2024 Carolina Panthers betting preview and NFL picks.
Carolina Panthers odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +25,000 |
| Win conference | +12,000 |
| Win division | +1,100 |
| Make playoffs | +550 |
| Over 5.5 wins | -115 |
| Under 5.5 wins | +105 |
Best futures bet: Under 5.5 wins (-110)
Potential is a recurring theme when breaking down the Carolina Panthers, and the schedule offers potential for wins, at least in the first three months.
Carolina’s SOS ranks out among the bottom 10, with several winnable matchups in the first 10 games (Saints twice, Raiders, Commanders, Broncos, and Giants).
Tempering that potential is the fact that the Panthers play six of those 10 contests away from home, including a Week 10 trip to Germany to face New York. The look-ahead lines have Carolina as a dog in every game, and with the back half of the calendar loaded with playoff contenders, counting to six wins is a real stretch.
Carolina Panthers at a glance: Dangerous dogs
Betting Carolina will be an uncomfortable process for anyone taking the points with the Panthers. On paper, things have improved from last season.
But how could they not be? The team has to be ready to pull the rip cord on Bryce Young if the second-year QB can’t hang early on.
What will win bets: Points
If we look back at some of the worst bets in recent NFL seasons, we see that most of those teams finished in the black the following year. That flip in fortunes could be for several reasons, but market perception plays a role...and Carolina’s market perception is shite.
The Panthers are getting points in every game in 2024, including being pegged as a pup of +4 or more in nine of those 17 games. Last season, underdogs of +4 or higher covered 52% of the time and are 54% ATS winners since 2020.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Panthers’ stop unit is a rare area of consistency in 2024, with defensive coordinator Eijiro Evero retaining his role for a second season. However, that might not be a good thing. Last year’s group ranked in the back half of the league in many categories and gave away top pass rusher Brian Burn during the offseason.
The table is set for Carolina to make improvements on the defensive side of the ball in 2024, with a slew of so-so QBs and rookies to start the season: Carr twice, O’Connell, Williams, Daniels, Jones, and whoever the Broncos march out there.
If the defense folds against that competition, things don’t look good for a much tougher home stretch.
Carolina Panthers schedule + spot bet: Road could ruin everything
Strength of schedule ratings have Carolina’s calendar among the softest in the land, but while the first 10 weeks feel competitive, the rigors of the road could wreck that potential. Six of the first 10 games come away from Carolina, concluding with an international showcase in Germany in Week 10.
The Panthers get a bye in Week 11 before a treacherous final seven games begin. Five of those outings come against 2023 playoff qualifiers, and the season finale is at Atlanta in Week 17 — potentially a win-and-in scenario for the Falcons.
While Carolina was point-spread poison last season, it was one of the better Under plays (5-12 O/U). Canales’ offense promises an unwavering commitment to the run, and the defense takes on plenty of wet-noodle offenses early on. The Panthers have 12 totals shorter than 45 points in 2024.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ New Orleans |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Los Angeles |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Las Vegas |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Chicago |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Atlanta |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Washington |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Denver |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. New Orleans |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. New York (G) |
| 11 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Kansas City |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Philadelphia |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Dallas |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Arizona |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Atlanta |
Spot bet: Week 8 @ Denver (+2.5, 41)
Carolina plays back-to-back road games and three away tilts in four weeks when it goes to Denver in Week 8. Not only is the thin air working against the visitor, but the Broncos have a mini bye to prep for this game, playing on Thursday in Week 7.
The Panthers were just 1-7-1 ATS as a road team in 2023, and covering away from Carolina has been an issue the past three seasons, going 8-17-1 ATS as a visitor since 2021.
Bryce’s biggest vice
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +15,000 |
| To win OPY | +20,000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +6,000 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +10,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 18.5 passing TD | -110 |
| Under 18.5 passing TD | -110 |
| 25+ passing TD | +650 |
| 30+ passing TD | +3,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,200.5 passing yards | -110 |
| Under 3,200.5 passing yards | -110 |
| 4,000+ passing TD | +1,000 |
| 4,500+ passing TD | +4,000 |
Best prop: Over 10.5 interceptions (+100)
Young threw 10 interceptions in his first season despite the passing playbook being very conservative. Some of the blame was on the receivers and an inability to get open. The hire of Canales and the moves at WR and the offensive line will have Young looking deeper in 2024.
The Panthers will be playing from behind most weeks, which means pressure to pass (which the defense leans into). Despite the improvements around him, Young’s stature doesn’t always let him see over the line, and he is susceptible to batted and tipped balls.
Player projections call for an uptick in interceptions from Young, with a forecast of 12+ picks. The big thing going against the Over 10.5 INTs is that if he struggles early, he may never get back on the field again.
Carolina Panthers trend: Divisional Home Unders
Unders have been a solid play with this franchise in recent years, especially when it comes to divisional games. Put those NFC South showdowns in Charlotte, and you’re looking at an 89% Under winner the previous three seasons.
Carolina is 1-8 Over/Under in divisional home games since 2021, including a 0-3 O/U finish in those spots in 2023.
Carolina Panthers’ divisional home games
- Week 6 vs. Atlanta (44)
- Week 9 vs. New Orleans (40.5)
- Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay (43)
Not intended for use in MA.
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