Chargers vs 49ers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Aiyuk Has Become Jimmy G's Favorite Target

Sunday Night Football is in a “Golden State” of mind in Week 10 when the Los Angeles Chargers visit the San Francisco 49ers for an all-California non-conference clash under the primetime lights.

San Francisco is coming off a bye, beginning an advantageous stretch of schedule that could put it in the NFC's driver’s seat. This matchup is one of four home games over the next five weeks, with that lone away tilt coming in a neutral-site meeting with Arizona in Mexico City next Monday.

Los Angeles is trying to keep pace in the AFC, picking up wins in four of its last five outings despite a constant rash of injuries plaguing the Bolts on both sides of the ball. The Chargers' defense just lost nose tackle Austin Johnson, and now brace for a dynamic San Francisco attack that hung 31 points on the defending Super Bowl champs last time out.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Chargers vs. 49ers on November 13.

Chargers vs 49ers best odds

Chargers vs 49ers picks and predictions

With the 49ers coming off a bye week, everyone is excited to see how Kyle Shanahan folds Christian McCaffrey into the playbook. We got a taste of that in Week 8, with Run CMC doing a little bit of everything for San Francisco.

But while McCaffrey’s projections spike – along with Deebo Samuel’s prop totals — another of the 49ers’ dangerous weapons seems to be downgraded despite a string of solid showings.

Receiver Brandon Aiyuk has a receiving yards total of 545 yards for Week 10 but is coming off three 80-plus yard performances which all blew his yardage props out of the water in those respective weeks. Aiyuk’s targets have jumped significantly in the last three outings, drawing a total of 27 balls thrown his way for a combined 21 receptions, which have added up to 246 yards through the air.

Now, two of those games saw San Francisco trailing — vs. Atlanta and Kansas City — which ticked Aiyuk's targets to 11 in each of those outings. But he caught all six passes his way against the Rams in Week 8, amassing 81 yards, and needed only three catches to total 58 yards versus Carolina in Week 5.

According to Shanahan, Aiyuk's emergence isn't just a product of the 49ers falling behind on the scoreboard. The Niners' head coach told the media he could see the improvements coming from Aiyuk before he caught eight of 11 passes for 83 yards against the Falcons in Week 7. Shanahan gushed over his receiver’s versatility and told the media that Aiyuk can do it all for this passing game, especially becoming Jimmy Garoppolo’s go-to guy on third down. 

While we do expect the 49ers to hand off a lot against the Bolts’ bad rush-defense unit in Week 10, San Francisco will open up shots over the top on play-action as L.A. sells out to stop the bleeding on the ground. 

Considering his involvement in the offense and praise from Shanahan, as well as the San Francisco head coach talking about opening up the playbook for Samuel in terms of more handoffs as a “wide back", Aiyuk could step up as the 49ers’ true WR1 in term of targets.

My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)

Chargers vs 49ers spread analysis

The lookahead line for this non-conference contest was as low as San Francisco -3.5 before Week 9.

The 49ers enjoyed a much-needed bye, not only getting healthy after an injury-riddled first half of the schedule but also allowing Kyle Shanahan to retool his playbook with McCaffrey now on the roster. 

As for the Chargers, they won 20-17 as 2.5-point closing faves in Atlanta last Sunday but enter this week with plenty of injury concerns on both sides of the ball.

The official Week 10 opening number hit the board as low as San Francisco -6 and quickly ran up to a touchdown spread with early play on the 49ers.

The Bolts’ missing bodies on the defensive line compound problems for a unit that has had a tough time slowing down rival rushing games, ranked just 29th in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. San Francisco is the perfect offense to exploit that weakness, handing off on more than 44% of snaps and boasting a deep roster of ball carriers.

According to DraftKings, the bet count is relatively split, with 53% of tickets on the Chargers and the points, while 51% of the money is siding with the visitor. Covers Consensus shows 62% of picks backing the host Niners.

Chargers vs 49ers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under opened at 47.5 and has trimmed to as low as 45, with early play on the Under. 

San Francisco can not only dominate the football with its rushing attack, but the 49ers' defense is one of the best in the land. The Niners are No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and feature a feared pass rush drumming up the fifth-highest pressure rate per dropback along with 26 sacks while blitzing less than 25% of the time.

Los Angeles’ offense is missing wideout Mike Williams, and veteran WR Keenan Allen is once again questionable to play as he fights through a hamstring injury. The Bolts have struggled to put up points in recent weeks, averaging a mere 0.283 points per play in their last three outings — 22nd in that span. 

The Chargers enter Week 10 with a 4-4 O/U record, playing to the Under in two of their last three games, while the 49ers are 3-5 O/U but have gone Over in two straight outings before their Week 9 bye.

DraftKings are reporting 57% of bets on the Over, but 73% of the money is backing the Under on Sunday Night Football.

Chargers vs 49ers betting trend to know

Since moving back to Los Angeles, the Chargers are 13-10 SU and 14-9 ATS versus NFC opponents. This includes a 7-4 SU mark and 9-2 ATS record in non-conference road games since 2017. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. 49ers.

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