Chargers vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7: Rice Torches AFC West Rivals

The AFC West goes to war when the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 odds.

Los Angeles comes to Arrowhead Stadium on a short week after a dud of a loss to Dallas this past Monday night, while Kansas City has enjoyed an extended break after dropping Denver two Thursdays ago.

The NFL odds have the Chiefs installed as 5.5-point home chalk, giving K.C. its respect but also guarding against this heated rivalry that has seen L.A. cover the spread in four of the last five head-to-head clashes.

We'll size up this AFC West grudge match as I give my best NFL picks for Chargers vs. Chiefs on October 22. Be sure to check out our favorite Patrick Mahomes props heading into this matchup as well.

Chargers vs Chiefs odds

Chargers vs Chiefs predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs are obviously not happy with their wide receiver room, as evidenced by the move to bring back former wide receiver Mecole Hardman in a trade with the Jets this week.

With the quality of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, it shouldn’t be too hard to shine, but KC’s receivers have been well below average to start 2023. Well, all but rookie wideout Rashee Rice.

Rice has emerged as the team’s top receiver — besides tight end Travis Kelce — collecting 245 total yards on 21 catches through six games. His Week 7 receiving yards prop is parked at 35.5 yards (Over -110).

He’s coming off a season-high 72 yards on four grabs versus Denver last Thursday, lining up for 35 snaps — another high for 2023. According to Mahomes, Rice left yards on the table after getting caught from behind by Denver’s last defender on two big catches for 23 and 28 yards.

“I told him, I was like, ‘You got to get those knees up, man. There’s two of them that, if you get those knees up, I think you can get in the end zone,’” Mahomes told reporters. “So that’s going to be the next progression for him.”

Rice has moved around in the offense, used in the slot as well as out wide, and at 6-foot-1 he’s a great blend of size and speed. His 35 snaps last Thursday are a notable increase from his 20 snaps in Week 5 and his 28 total targets are second only to Kelce, as the first-year WR out of SMU continues to win the trust of his Hall of Fame QB.

The rookie wideout now faces a Los Angeles Chargers defense for the first time and will take advantage of a secondary that has bled big gains through the air. Los Angeles is second worst in yards allowed per attempt (7.7) and ranks 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. Rice can then tack on bonus gains with his ability to grab yards after the catch.

Player projections for Week 7 have Rice forecasted for as many as 54 yards receiving, with all major models calling for more than 35.5 yards and my number coming out to more than 44 yards against the Chargers.

Los Angeles does have some bodies banged up in the secondary and are playing on a short week after watching Dallas’ WR1 CeeDee Lamb dominate them for 117 yards Monday night — a similar receiver to Rice, who can collect those yards after the catch.

My best bet: Rashee Rice Over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Chargers vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Rice Over 35.5 receiving yards

Rice anytime touchdown

Chiefs moneyline

30% boost available

+425 +552 at bet365

Rice is playing a bigger role in the playbook and was very close to a monster Week 6 effort.

Rice was one defender away from scoring two touchdowns in Week 6 and faces an L.A. defense that has allowed seven touchdowns to WRs.

This AFC West rivalry has been closer than oddsmakers expected in recent meetings, so we’ll go safe and stay with Kansas City to win outright. Also, bet365 will do early cashout on MLs if a team gets ahead by 17 or more points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chargers vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

If we follow the life cycle of this point spread, we have to go back to the spring when offseason odds hit the board shortly after the release of the schedule. There we see Kansas City laying -6 at home in Week 7.

The look-ahead lines weren’t too different heading into Week 6, with the Chiefs as big as 6.5-point home chalk. Kansas City would win and cover against the Broncos on Thursday Night Football and the Bolts fell 20-17 to the Cowboys as 2.5-point home dogs on Monday night.

The official Week 7 line opened with Kansas City as big as -6 while most markets hit the board at -5.5, and that is where the consensus spread has been this week. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of picks are laying the points with the Chiefs as of Thursday morning.

Kansas City has won five straight outings since losing the Week 1 opener to Detroit, going 4-1 against the spread in that span. The Chiefs offense isn’t hitting the usual highs we’re accustomed to under Mahomes and Andy Reid but is still Top 10 in many advanced offensive measurements.

The defense has been the real story for Kansas City. The unit usually takes a few months to find its championship form, but the Chiefs stop unit has been impacting outcomes since Week 1. Kansas City sits ninth in DVOA and No. 6 in EPA allowed per play.

The pass rush is the beating heart of that unit, with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo dialing up extra blitzers on over 36% of dropbacks and cooking up the second-highest pressure rate in the league. That’s led to 17 sacks and KC’s defense is among the leaders in QB hits and QB hurries.

Los Angeles QB Justin Herbert doesn’t have much time to get right after a bad performance against Dallas in Week 6.

Even with the team coming off the bye and OC Kellen Moore facing his former team, Herbert completed less than 60% of his passes for just 227 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. That seems to be a carryover from Week 4, in which he finished with even uglier stats against a much softer Las Vegas defense. Herbert is also playing through a fractured finger on his non-throw hand.

As for the Los Angeles defense, it allowed 342 yards to the Cowboys but turnovers and bad red zone play from Dallas let the Bolts off the hook. This stop unit still ranks at the bottom of most stats, sitting 27th in EPA allowed per play and 26th in DVOA at FTN.

Mahomes is 7-2 against the Chargers franchise and owns a career passer rating of 99.9 versus the Bolts. Last season, he upped that measurement to 113.4 with 574 total passing yards, five TDs, and zero interceptions in two meetings with L.A.

This season, however, the Chiefs’ passing game hasn’t been as sharp. Mahomes’ numbers aren’t the standard in the league by any means, especially when it comes to his five interceptions and a dwindling yards per attempt (7.1 is the lowest of his career).

Plenty of blame could be put on the receiving corps around him. Kansas City leads the AFC in drops with 15 and outside of Kelce, the Chiefs’ other targets have been inconsistent. Kansas City’s top-rated WR at Pro Football Focus is Rice (No. 16) while others rank 73rd or worst — not what you’d expect with Mahomes on the other end of those throws.

The Over/Under for Week 7’s divisional clash opened at 50 points and has sunk to as low as 47.5, as of Thursday. Covers Consensus shows 65% of picks on the Over.

The Chiefs’ elite defense and underperforming attack has led to a 2-4 Over/Under record on the season. However, Kansas City runs one of the quicker tempos in terms of seconds per snap (eighth fastest) and will dial up non-huddle when they have defenses on their heels.

As for L.A., it’s gone Under in three straight games to sit 2-3 O/U on the year. The Chargers sit middle of the pack in terms of pace but rank among the Top 10 in yards per play (5.6) and sit fourth in big plays with 14 strikes for 20-plus yards so far this season.

Should this total stay below 50 points, it would be the first time in five games this AFC West rivalry has had a sub-50 Over/Under.

Chargers vs Chiefs betting trend to know

Since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, the Chargers are 31-18-5 ATS on the road (62%). Given the Bolts points as road underdogs and they’re 16-7-3 ATS (67%). That includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark as pups at Arrowhead Stadium. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs.

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