Caleb Williams’ first game for the Chicago Bears is right up there with “Deadpool & Wolverine” among the must-see events of the summer.
The first overall pick has hopes soaring in the Windy City and the NFL odds buzzing. The Bears have a season win total of 8.5 (Over -160) and look-ahead lines peg Chicago as a favorite in 10 games this year. To put that betting market into perspective, the Bears have been a favorite just 10 total times in the past three seasons.
Williams ranks among names like Manning, Luck, and Burrow as surefire franchise quarterbacks, and the Bears have given him one of the best receiving corps in the entire league to work with. However, it will take more than big names on the backs of those blue and orange jerseys to climb out of the NFL basement.
Can Matt Eberflus’ defense build on the second-half improvements in 2023 and support the rookie QB on the scoreboard? I dig into that delicious deep dish in my 2024 Chicago Bears betting preview and NFL picks.
Chicago Bears odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +3,500 |
| Win conference | +1,500 |
| Win division | +275 |
| Make playoffs | -115 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -165 |
| Under 8.5 wins | +140 |
Best futures bet: Third in NFC North (+200)
The Chicago Bears have the easiest schedule in the NFC North, ranked both by 2023 win percentage and 2024 projected wins. Chicago has stiff divisional battles with Green Bay and Detroit, but several winnable games are on the calendar beyond those rivalries. The Bears are dogs of more than four points just once (+5.5 @ San Francisco in Week 14).
Last year’s crew suffered six of their 10 losses by one possession and finished the second half of the schedule on a 6-2-1 ATS run. A big part of that was the defense finding its way in Eberflus’ zone schemes and coming away with game-changing plays (fifth in takeaways with 28).
Chicago Bears at a glance: Not all on Williams
The promise of Caleb Williams doesn’t come with much patience, but the Bears’ success in the standings and at the sportsbook isn’t squarely on his shoulders.
Honestly, there’s just as much weight on defensive end Montez Sweat to keep the pressure on opposing passers, as there’s no one else with that impact. Chicago needs to keep the takeaways coming, and it begins with the pass rush.
What will win bets: Takeaways
I could point to the Bears’ star-studded passing game, but the reason why Chicago’s 2023 ATS fortunes flipped from 2-5-1 ATS in the first eight games to 6-2-1 ATS in the final nine was the chaos-causing defense. With Sweat getting after QBs, the ball-hawking zone snapped up an NFL-best 22 interceptions.
While takeaways are tough to count on each week, the Bears’ 2024 schedule leans into that strength. Chicago’s defense will potentially face seven QBs either in their first or second year in the first 11 games.
What will lose bets: Expectations
As mentioned, it’s been a long time since Da Bears brought this much heat into Week 1.
The betting markets are very positive and despite NFC title contenders like Detroit and Green Bay in the mix, Chicago is drawing the second-highest ticket count to win the NFC North and fifth-most tickets/handle to win the conference.
A lot of that love surrounds the offense, which is learning a brand-new system from OC Shane Waldron. As great as Williams can be, let’s not forget he’s a rookie. First-year quarterbacks thrust into the starting gig haven’t been exactly sharp out of the gate, and the majority of those rookies don’t carry the clout of Caleb.
Chicago Bears schedule + spot bet: Set Up For Success
The schedule makers gifted one of the lighter slates of 2024 to Chicago. The Bears’ SOS is cushy no matter how you slice it, and while Williams is a rookie QB, the defense takes on plenty of unproven passers in the opening two and a half months. I smell early Unders.
Besides a Week 2 trip to Houston, a UK game versus Jacksonville in Week 6, and a Week 14 date in San Francisco, Chicago’s highest hurdles come from within the division. The Bears have been absolute ass inside the NFC North, lugging a 6-18 SU record and 7-17 ATS mark the past four years.
Chicago has a friendly run of games from Week 4 to Week 12, playing only two true road outings in that stretch (and a neutral-site contest in Week 6 before a Week 7 bye). However, that leaves a backloaded slate, making the Bears visitors in four of the last five games of the year. Eberflus is just 3-14 SU and 6-11 ATS on the road as head coach.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Tennessee |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Houston |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Indianapolis |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | vs. Los Angeles |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Carolina |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 7 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ Washington |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Arizona |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. New England |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Green Bay |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | vs. Minnesota |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | @ Detroit |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ San Francisco |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Minnesota |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Detroit |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Seattle |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Green Bay |
Spot bet: Week 15 @ Minnesota (-1, 46)
This Monday Night Football trip to the “Land of the Purple One” will be Chicago’s third straight road game and marks the third game in which the Bears are road favorites in 2024. That’s a badge Da Bears haven’t worn since Week 12 of the 2021 season. In two years under Eberflus, the club is 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS in divisional road games.
Chicago does get the extra day of rest with the divisional showdown on Monday and also enjoys a mini bye due to playing Detroit on Thanksgiving Thursday in Week 13, before heading to the Bay to butt heads with the 49ers the week before this primetime stage.
Williams or Won’t He?
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +5,000 |
| To win OROY | +195 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +2,200 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +2,800 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +1,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 23.5 passing TD | -125 |
| Under 23.5 passing TD | +105 |
| 25+ passing TD | +115 |
| 40+ passing TD | +550 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 3,500.5 passing yards | -125 |
| Under 3,500.5 passing yards | +105 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +350 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +2,000 |
Best prop: 25+ Touchdown Passes (+115)
Projecting the output of rookies is tough, with some models hovering around 25 touchdown passes from Williams. There have been only four other first-year passers to post 25 or more touchdowns (Herbert, Mayfield, Wilson, and Manning).
Williams has the weapons to do so. D.J. Moore is incredibly versatile, Keenan Allen is a jump ball option in the end zone along with TEs Gerald Everett and Cole Kmet, and RB D’Andre Swift has good hands.
The Bears face only six defenses that finished in the top half of EPA allowed per dropback and nine stop units rated 20th or worst in that advanced stat. What could be the kicker though is Chicago’s takeaways setting up Williams & Co. for great field position and more scoring chances.
Chicago Bears trend: One-Score Games
When the going gets tough, head coach Matt Eberflus gets got. In his two seasons in Chicago, Eberflus is just 3-13 SU in one-score games (eight points or less) with a 6-7-3 record against the spread in those nail-biters.
The optimistic odds call for close ones in all of the Bears’ outings in 2024, with no spread bigger than 5.5 points. In the tightest of games — spreads between -3 and +3 — Chicago is a measly 6-10 SU and 4-9-3 ATS under Eberflus. It currently has 10 look-ahead spreads in that range in 2024.
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