Chiefs vs Jaguars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 2: Buy Low on The Chiefs

After a disappointing night in the NFL opener last Thursday night, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars for the third time since last November. The Chiefs have bounced around from a 3- to a 3.5-point favorite on the NFL Week 2 odds board with a Week 2-high total of 51. 

With the Chiefs on extra rest, possibly getting some more bodies back in the lineup, and facing a Jacksonville team with a banged-up O-line, is getting the -3 the best move in the NFL odds heading into the weekend?

Here are my free NFL Week 2 picks for Chiefs vs. Jaguars.

Chiefs vs Jaguars odds

Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs missed Travis Kelce in Week 1 but they also let the game slip away from them. The defense held a very good Detroit offense to 14 points and the offense ranked first in EPA/play on first down. The drops and some questionable playcalling cost them plenty of first downs, but with Kelce and Chris Jones suiting up this week, I’m backing the Chiefs on the road at -3.

These two clubs met twice last year where KC was a 10-point home fave and won 27-17 after jumping out to a 20-0 lead in the first half. The second contest, also at Arrowhead as a 10-point favorite, was a 27-20 KC win as Patrick Mahomes dealt with a high-ankle sprain for three quarters and Chad Henne saw seven pass attempts. 

Now bettors are seeing a 7-point swing? I think that is a little too much.

Jacksonville Jaguars All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff was limited at practice Thursday and is dealing with an ankle issue. He is looking like a go but his backup is on IR and LT Cam Robinson is still serving the remainder of his four-game suspension. 

This line also lost its best pass blocker in Jawan Taylor who moved to KC and swing tackle Josh Wells is done for the year. To make matters worse, Starting center Luke Fortner was limited this week with an ankle issue but looks like a go Sunday. 

Jacksonville only has eight active O-linemen on its roster and could be in tough if Chris Jones suits up.

Jones in the lineup means a solid matchup vs. an O-line that ranked in the bottom 10, per Pro Football Focus, and has to face an underrated Steve Spagnuolo defense that held the Lions to 14 points and a 29.4% success rate on money downs. 

It’s tough to have as bad luck with drops as KC did on Thursday night and if Kelce and Jones are to suit up, this should move to -3.5. Jacksonville won last week but also entered the fourth quarter trailing 21-17 to a rookie QB, a new coaching staff, and an RB3. Reid will get the boys ready with the extra time. 

My best bet: Chiefs -3 (-115 at bet365)

Chiefs vs Jaguars same-game parlay

Chiefs -2.5

Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards

Edwards-Helaire anytime TD

+1,100 at bet365

The Clyde Edwards-Helaire TD is certainly bumping up these odds but there is a chance he sees goal-line carries. KC had just one carry in the RZ last week and it was Isiah Pacheco. Both guys saw carries as Pacheco saw eight and CEH had six. It's a value play at its current +400 price and one that could be played alone. 

Patrick Mahomes has a lot of inexperience in his pass-catching group and we saw him lead his team with six carries for 45 yards vs. a very fast Detroit defense. Mahomes ran for 39 yards vs. the Jags last year in the regular season. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chiefs vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis

Since my best bet is on the Chiefs at -3, I’ll be focusing on the total and player usage here.

The total opened as high as 52.5 on Sunday and as of Friday has been bet down to 51 with a few stray 51.5s on the board.

It’s the week's highest total and one bettors might not want to tag the Over.

This is a very good KC defense that gave Jared Goff and the Lions plenty of resistance in prime time and now could have Chris Jones back vs. a banged-up Jacksonville O-line. 

The Jags survived Week 1 thanks to three Indy turnovers because the Colts' 4-for-15 on third and fourth down didn’t help. Gardner Minshew came in for Anthony Richardson and had three cracks at goal-to-go from the one-yard line late to crush Colts spread backers late but the Colts also welted in the second half — giving up a fumble TD, an interception, and a turnover on downs over the final five Indy possessions. The other two were three-and-out punts for minus-one yard.

Looking at pace of play, the Chiefs finished 11th in Week 1 and ran 62 plays (19th) while the Jaguars ranked 26th in pace of play and ran 69 plays (ninth). Dating back to 2022, the Chiefs and Jaguars rank first and fourth respectively in offensive success rate. 

Looking at player usage, the Chiefs used all three backs with Isaiah Pacheco getting 29 snaps, eight of the 14 RB carries, and four targets. Clyde Edwards-Helaire was back at practice and will see some touches. Jerrick McKinnon saw just two targets and no carries on 14 snaps. Mahomes spread the passing game around but it was Skyy Morre (43) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (39) seeing the most snaps followed by Richie James (23), and rookie Rashee Rice (20). It looks like Pacheco will get the goal-line carries. 

Calvin Ridley dominated in Week 1 with a 34% target share and 45% of the team’s air-yard share. Zay Jones saw 61 snaps to Ridley’s 59 and was targeted on 24% of routes ran. Christian Kirk is the No.3 WR right now. 

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