Christian McCaffrey TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 15

I feel like I should warn you: You are about to enter a 5-10 minute love fest for one of the most dynamic, exciting running backs in all of the NFL, who has gone from being a superstar to an absolute offensive weapon for the San Francisco 49ers — and also has one of the best nicknames in the sport.

All hail "Run-CMC."

Can you tell I'm excited to spotlight Christian McCaffrey props this week? He's got a very juicy Week 15 matchup against a floundering Seattle defense, and the NFL odds on CMC's props are providing some intriguing value... although my free NFL picks aren't going in the direction you'd think.

Here's a hint: Both our 49ers vs. Seahawks betting preview and our best TNF player props are banking on big days from Niners pass-catchers... and I'm going to follow suit.

Christian McCaffrey TNF prop picks

• Over 36.5 receiving yards
• Over 4.5 receptions
• Longest run Under 17.5 yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Christian McCaffrey TNF props

More like McCatchrey

So, obviously, considering the Seattle Seahawks have given up almost 210 rushing yards per game over their last four contests, I'm going to insta-bet McCaffrey Over his rushing yards total right... right?

Not so fast.

Wait, hear me out: CMC's rushing line is 78.5 yards right now, which is 25-30 yards more than it's been each of the last three weeks, his second-highest total Over in his last 10 games, and a number he's topped just twice in his seven games with the San Francisco 49ers.

Instead... I'm throwing my money at McCaffrey going Over his receiving yards prop, which is sitting at just 36.5 yards: A total he's topped four times with the Niners (and he averages 45.62 receiving yards per game overall this season).

There are also some contextual factors helping this prop out for Thursday night:

This is quarterback Brock Purdy's first career road start (second career start overall) and the Niners' first true road game since late October... plus it's a short week. Safe passes and easy completions will be a priority for head coach Kyle Shanahan.

• Stud wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out for this game, and his nearly eight targets per game will have to go somewhere else.

• The Seahawks' defensive style — a lot of two-high safeties with an emphasis on keeping everything in front of them and forcing opposing offenses to go with a lot of short, underneath throws — is also conducive to check-downs and quick passes, which works in the favor of running backs racking up yards.

• Seattle has also gotten gauged against previous true pass-catching running backs this season, with Josh Jacobs (seventh in RB rec yards), Austin Ekeler (first), and Alvin Kamara (third) registering 74, 96, and 91 receiving yards.

McCaffrey is the league's second-leading receiver among RBs — even an average receiving game, by his standards, cashes this bet.

Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Gotta catch 'em all

If we like CMC to go Over his receiving yards, banking on him surpassing his receptions total isn't much of a stretch (they don't all have to be bold, daring bets, OK?).

McCaffrey is coming off one of his quietest passing games of the year, tying a season low with two receptions and his three targets were his lowest total other than his San Fran debut (when he played 29% of offensive snaps).

That, however, was a game where the Niners were up 35-0 a minute into the third quarter and McCaffrey basically didn't play the entire second half.

He's averaging 5.2 receptions and 6.6 targets per game this season — with those numbers jumping to 6.2 catches on 7.6 targets in his five Niners games with a full workload — and as mentioned above, there should be a chance to pile up those short check-down and underneath catches, especially with Samuel sidelined.

Ironically, CMC doesn't actually need to catch all his targets to top this total on Thursday, but he will get enough looks — and haul enough in — to make this play a winner.

Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions (-103)

More tortoise than hare

Going back to the whole "why-I'm-not-super-enthusiastic-about-CMC's-rushing-yards" thing, in the two games with San Francisco where he's reached 79+ yards — Week 8 against the Rams and last week vs. Tampa Bay — McCaffrey was aided in both cases by a big chunk run (25 yards vs. LA, 38 vs. TB).

Take those runs away... and not only does he fall Under 79 rushing yards in every San Fran game, but he also has just five other runs of 18+ yards in a red and gold uniform.

Now, averaging one big chunk per game isn't the worst thing, but the Seahawks' defense (for as porous as it's been) has somehow done a good job of limiting the big running plays.

Seattle has allowed just four designed rushes of 20+ yards in its last seven games, instead settling for consistently yielding moderate chunks of yards.

McCaffrey has averaged just 13.5 carries over his last six games, with his backup RBs averaging 11 rushes during that span. There's a chance that this game could also get lopsided, as the Seahawks' one-dimensional offense will struggle to keep pace against San Fran's relentless defense, and on a short week we should again see a lot of Jordan Mason, especially late in the game.

With a limited number of carries, against a defense that doesn't give up a ton of big runs, the odds seems in favor of banking on McCaffrey to keep it slow and steady on the ground Thursday night.

Prop: Christian McCaffrey longest rush Under 17.5 yards (-120)

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