The Cincinnati Bengals were among the elite for a very short time last season. From Week 5 to Week 10, the Bengals scared the crap out of the rest of the NFL.
They ranked Top 5 in many advanced metrics and went 4-1 SU and ATS in that span, including wins over Buffalo and San Francisco. That hot stretch came on the heels of a 1-3 SU start due to Joe Burrow’s calf strain in camp and ended with Burrow suffering a season-ending wrist injury in Week 11. Cincinnati finished the year 4-4 SU and 3-4-1 ATS.
The NFL odds haven’t forgotten Cincy’s sizzle in that small window, installing the Burrow-led Bengals as favorites in 14 of their 17 games. They have a season win total of 10.5 (Over -140) and sit among the frontrunners in the futures markets.
Luckily for Cincinnati, the most dramatic Burrow news out of 2024 training camp is his “Slim Shady” inspired hairdo (AKA “The Marshall Mathers JB”). As long as the Bengals quarterback is healthy, this team is a contender in the AFC.
Here are my NFL picks and my 2024 Cincinnati Bengals NFL betting preview.
Cincinnati Bengals odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1300 |
| Win conference | +700 |
| Win division | +140 |
| Make playoffs | -260 |
| Over 10.5 wins | -140 |
| Under 10.5 wins | +120 |
Best futures bet: Win AFC North (+165)
The Cincinnati Bengals schedule is softer than the Ravens, who will be neck-and-neck with Cincinnati in the AFC North. That’s no more evident than the opening four games before these foes meet in Ohio in Week 5.
Both teams tangle with Kansas City in that span but the Bengals clash with cupcakes in New England, Washington, and Carolina while the Ravens face Las Vegas, Dallas, and Buffalo. Depending on where you bet, you can find Cincy as a divisional favorite at +140 or get it as the second option as high as +165. Shop around.
Cincinnati Bengals at a glance: No average Joe
There’s still some summer left, as of this writing, but it looks like Joe Burrow will enter Week 1 healthy. That’s been a rarity for the Bengals during Burrow’s tenure with the team. The high-powered offense will continue to click but defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has to coach up a less-talented stop unit.
What will win bets: Passing Game
Burrow played the first four games of 2023 on one leg but once he healed up from that calf strain, the Bengals took off. From Week 5 to Week 10, Burrow was back among the top QBs in terms of advanced measurements, Cincinnati was No. 3 in success rate per dropback and averaged almost 27 points per game. That paid out to the tune of 4-1 SU and ATS.
This year, Tyler Boyd is gone but Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and new TE Mike Gesicki headline one of the best receiving corps in the land. AFC North games are always tough sledding, however, outside of the division the Bengals’ air attack brings a bazooka to a knife fight when compared to the competition.
What will lose bets: Defense
This group ranked near the bottom of the NFL last season, finishing 27th in EPA allowed per play. Their biggest weakness was giving up crippling chunk plays, allowing 65 completions of 20-plus yards and 17 runs of 20 or more. The 2024 forecast has all three defensive units – DL, LB, and secondary – sitting middle of the road.
Cincinnati faces a few top-tier quarterbacks along the way in 2024. But outside of dates with Lamar Jackson (twice), Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott, the schedule gives Anarumo’s squad little threat – at least in terms of passing prowess. Can the D do enough to help Cincinnati cover with the average spread as a favorite at -4.5?
Cincinnati Bengals schedule + spot bet: Avoid Slow Start
To quote Arrowsmith, the Bengals’ “get up and go, musta got up and went” as they’ve started the season with all the enthusiasm of a sedated sloth on a Sunday morning.
Since 2020, Cincinnati is 7-8-1 SU and 7-7-2 ATS in the opening four weeks – a stark contrast to its 31-18-1 ATS mark from Week 5 onward 63%). Some of that has to do with Burrow’s early-season ailments but there’s no excuse in 2024 considering the silky start being served up.
Cincinnati hosts New England (-9) and Washington (-7) and visits Carolina (-6.5) in the opening four games, flanking a trip to “Burrowhead”… I mean Arrowhead in Week 2. Cincy is 23-10 SU and 19-12-2 as a favorite the previous four years.
The back half of the schedule has the Bengals at home only three times between Week 10 and Week 18, with a bye in Week 12. Cincinnati is 15-17-1 SU as a visitor since 2020 with a stellar 20-13 ATS mark in those road games.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. New England |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Kansas City |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Washington |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Carolina |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs Baltimore |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ New York (G) |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Cleveland |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs Las Vegas |
| 10 | Thursday, November 7 | @ Baltimore |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs Pittsburgh |
| 14 | Monday, December 9 | @ Dallas |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Tennessee |
| 16 | Thursday, December 19 | vs Cleveland |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs Denver |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Pittsburgh |
Spot bet: Week 7 @ Cleveland (-1, 46.5)
The Battle of Ohio serves as a sticky schedule spot for the Bengals, who play the second of back-to-back games and their third road game in four weeks against the rival Browns in Week 7.
This AFC North rivalry has been a little one-sided the past four years, with Cincinnati owning a 2-4 SU record versus Cleveland. A 5-3 ATS count in those games numbs the pain a bit.
Fun fact: Cincy hasn’t won at Cleveland since 2017 and is 0-6 SU and 3-3 ATS in those recent road meetings.
Say It Ain’t Joe
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +900 |
| To win CPOY | +300 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +1100 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +850 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 28.5 passing TD | +110 |
| Under 28.5 passing TD | -130 |
| 30+ passing TD | +125 |
| 35+ passing TD | +550 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4,000.5 passing yards | -105 |
| Under 4,000.5 passing yards | -115 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +425 |
Best prop: Over 9.5 Interceptions (+100)
Burrow or no Burrow, Zac Taylor’s offense is chucking it. His playbook has sat among the most pass-happy in the NFL during his time in Cincinnati. And why not? Burrow is one of the best QBs in the league. That doesn’t mean he’s immune to mistakes, however.
Burrow was picked off six times in his 10 games last year and threw double digits in INTs over 16 games in each of the previous two seasons. Player projections range from 11.5 interceptions to closer to 13 for 2024.
The Bengals play the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens six times and each of those AFC North foes finished with 16 or more interceptions in 2023. If the defense can’t stop the bleeding, Burrow could be pressed to make plays into the teeth of rival stop units.
Cincinnati Bengals trend: Beware Big Faves
The Bengals have been one of the best bets in the NFL in recent seasons, owning a 38-25-3 count overall since Burrow showed up in Cincy (60%).
That windfall includes meeting expectations as a point spread favorite, with a 19-12-2 ATS clip when giving points since 2020 (61%). But there is a breaking point for the Bengals’ spreads.
Tab Cincinnati as a favorite of a touchdown or more and the team is 5-3 SU but 3-5 ATS. The 2024 look-ahead lines have the Bengals laying -7 or higher in four games this season (and another at -6.5).
Cincinnati Bengals’ biggest spreads
- Week 1 vs. New England (-9)
- Week 3 vs. Washington (-7.5)
- Week 9 vs. Las Vegas (-7)
- Week 17 vs. Denver (-8)
Not intended for use in MA.
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