Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday and the first game features the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans.
It's been a turbulent season for C.J. Stroud odds, and I anticipate the Texas quarterback struggling against a stingy Chargers pass defense. Find out more in my latest NFL picks for Saturday, January 10.
C.J. Stroud player prop picks
- Best bet
Stroud Under 34.5 passing attempts
(-120 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Stroud Under 34.5 passing attempts
Mixon Over 73.5 rushing yards
Schultz Over 3.5 receptions
(425 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
C.J. Stroud prop pick
My best bet
C.J. Stroud Under 34.5 passing attempts (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There have been a lot of questions asked about C.J. Stroud this season, as the sophomore quarterback has failed to live up to the incredible performances that we saw in his rookie year.
Finishing with a disappointing TD/INT ratio of 20-12 and a passer rating of 87.0, the Houston Texans pivot has cashed the Over on 34.5 passing attempts in just five of 16 starts this season. Four of those five high-passing games took place in the first eight weeks of the season, as Stroud’s passing volume has severely dropped down the stretch.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense ranks ninth in defensive DVOA and has been great against the pass, with only six teams allowing fewer rushing yards per game. With the Los Angeles offense featuring a run-heavy scheme that chews up the clock, Stroud will also be provided with less time to cash his passing attempts total.
C.J. Stroud same-game parlay
C.J. Stroud Under 34.5 passing attempts
Joe Mixon Over 73.5 rushing attempts
Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 receptions
In addition to my best bet, I'm backing Joe Mixon to have Over 73.5 rushing yards. Mixon finished the regular season with another 1,000-yard year, and he’s primed to be a big part of a tight matchup that features both sides leaning heavily on the run.
Meanwhile, with injuries to both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, we’re going to see tight end Dalton Schultz featured more in the passing game. The Chargers have allowed an average of 5.3 receptions per game to TEs, so I expect the veteran to eclipse his O/U on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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