Commanders vs Cowboys Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Dallas Covers as Favorites at Jerry World

When Dak Prescott went down in Week 1, morale was beyond low for the team and its fans. But between the two straight wins with Cooper Rush under center and with Dak Prescott's recovery coming faster than anticipated, the Dallas Cowboys (2-1) have every right to believe that their season and playoff hopes are still on track.

This week they will host the Washington Commanders (1-2), who started off the season beating the Jaguars but have since dropped games to the Lions and Eagles.

Can Carson Wentz and crew get right in Week 4, or will Rush maintain his undefeated record as a starter for the Cowboys?

Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for Commanders vs. Cowboys on Sunday, October 2. 

Commanders vs Cowboys best odds

Commanders vs Cowboys picks and predictions

Prior to the season, there was a lot of talk that this would potentially be Mike McCarthy's last as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. After Week 1's 19-3 loss to the Buccaneers and Dak Prescott's injury during that game, there wasn't really much reason to believe McCarthy would survive.

But to his credit, the Cowboys have played very impressively in the two weeks since. A 20-17 win against the Bengals followed by a 23-16 road divisional win against Brian Daboll's Giants have the Cowboys at 2-1, with Dak Prescott potentially returning as early as next week:

#Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is not expected to practice today, having just gotten his stitches out of his surgically repaired thumb. This week appears too ambitious though he does have an outside shot for next week vs. the #Rams.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 28, 2022

A win over the Commanders this week would be the ultimate icing on the cake by putting their NFC East counterparts at 1-3 and potentially out of the divisional race. There is plenty of reason to believe they can get it done this week, as CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott are both coming off their best games of the young season. 

Those two, as well as the likes of Tony Pollard and surprise breakout Noah Brown, have a golden opportunity to tee off on a Washington defense that has struggled thus far. Through three games, the Commanders rank fourth-worst in defensive DVOA.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense might be the real MVP to this 2-1 start, allowing fewer than 20 points in all three contests thus far. They rank eighth in defensive DVOA, and Micah Parsons has continued to be one of the league's most impactful players. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year has already racked up four sacks and another five tackles for loss to start 2022.

Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence will have a juicy matchup on Sunday against a Washington offensive line that ranks third-worst in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate metric, which has led to Carson Wentz taking a league-leading 15 sacks. Wentz is actually tied for that distinction with Joe Burrow, who the Cowboys sacked six times in their Week 2 win.

My best bet: Cowboys -3 (-107 at PointsBet)

Commanders vs Cowboys spread analysis

While McCarthy has proven to be no coaching mastermind, he at least has offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to help right the ship week in and week out.

Across from him Sunday is Ron Rivera, who has four straight losing seasons as a head coach (and is likely en route to his fifth). Beside him is Scott Turner as his offensive coordinator (who helped mastermind the putrid offenses with Ron during that span), and Jack Del Rio as his defensive coordinator. Del Rio took the Washington defense that ranked third in defensive DVOA in 2020 and sunk it to a 27th place finish last season.

Quite simply, the Cowboys have the coaching advantage as well as a steep talent advantage on both offense and defense. Throw on top the fact that they get to play from their home turf?

This is the Cowboys game to lose.

Commanders vs Cowboys Over/Under analysis

Books are expecting a slower game between these two, setting the total around 41. And to be quite frank, that is probably entirely fair.

The Cowboys have mustered up just 46 points through three weeks, with the Commanders coming with 49. To that point, Washington ranks 20th in points per offensive drive while Dallas ranks an even worse 24th. They also respectively rank 23rd and 21st in yards per drive, and 17th and 22nd in drive success rate.

Neither team has shown any semblance of consistent offensive proficiency through three weeks, and expecting it in this divisional showdown would be unwise.

Commanders vs Cowboys betting trend to know

Carson Wentz is 18-25 on the road compared to 27-17-1 at home. He is also 0-4 in dome stadiums. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Cowboys.

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