Commanders vs Eagles Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 4: Taking Washington to the Limit

The NFL schedule takes a page from Cobra Kai in Week 4 and shows the Washington Commanders “no mercy,” sending them to the City of Brotherly Love to tangle with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Washington is still sore from a 37-3 crane kick to the junk from the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and bookies are piling on the points against the reigning NFC champs.

Philadelphia improved to 3-0 with a one-sided win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday and even the short turnaround to play Sunday isn’t slowing down early action on the Eagles.

I break down the NFL odds, spread, and Over/Under total for this NFC East encounter and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Commanders at Eagles on October 1.

Commanders vs Eagles odds

Commanders vs Eagles predictions

The Philadelphia Eagles don’t need to play perfect football to win games. They don’t even need to play mistake-free to cover the spread. Case in point: Monday Night Football.

The Eagles easily covered as a 5-point road favorite in Tampa Bay with a 25-11 win in which they dominated the host Buccaneers but were far from perfect. The biggest blemish in the Eagles’ box score is a 1-for-5 result inside the red zone (one of which was a kneel-down on the 1-yard line to end the game).

This is typically an area of strength for Philly, which finished last season scoring TDs on 68% of its red-zone trips (third best). The Eagles were 4-for-6 in the RZ in the first two games before that misfire against the Bucs.

But had Philadelphia scored on two or three of those five possessions inside the 20-yard line Monday, we’d be talking double digits with this Week 4 spread.

Philadelphia’s game plan is the same one that sunk the Commanders in Week 4. The Bills exploded out of the gate with a 10-0 lead after one quarter and a 16-0 lead at halftime, forcing Washington to play much faster than it likes and lean heavily on the pass in order to catch up.

That left QB Sam Howell in a bad spot. He was playing beyond his comfort zone and pushing the ball further than he had in the first two games, while also missing his favorite target TE Logan Thomas (out with a concussion). The Bills made the most of that one-dimensional playbook and blasted Howell for nine sacks while picking him off four times.

That’s essentially the same blueprint Philly will follow in Week 4. This defense gets great pressure with just the front four and after Buffalo’s ball-hawking Week 3, the stop unit sits just behind the Bills for the league lead in takeaways with eight — including two in the win over Tampa.

Oh, any hesitation due to Philadelphia playing on a short week should be tempered by the fact that the offense controlled the ball for almost 39 minutes on Monday, leaving the defense with plenty of gas in the tank for this divisional rivalry.

Adding a little extra to the Eagles in Week 4 is a rare home spot for this team. It will be playing just the second game inside Lincoln Financial Field in the opening six weeks of the 2023 schedule, so expect the football-starved Philly faithful to be loud and proud.

Philadelphia owns one of the biggest home-field advantages in my ratings system and they’ve come through for Eagles backers on their own turf with an 11-7-2 ATS mark as hosts since 2021, including 10-3-2 ATS as a home favorite.

My best bet: Eagles -8 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Eagles same-game parlay

Eagles -8

Jalen Hurts Over 41.5 rushing yards

Jalen Hurts anytime TD

+330 at DraftKings

My NFL power ratings are calling for a double-digit win for the Eagles, who won’t be taking Washington lightly after a home loss to the Commanders in 2022.

Hurts’ rushing projections call for more than 41 yards rushing with a ceiling as high as 64 yards.

The QB keeper on the goal line is always live for the Eagles, and Hurts has three rushing TDs over the past two games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line set in the summer was Eagles -7.5. Heading into Week 3, that spread was down to -7 with the Commanders off to a 2-0 start. However, with Washington falling well short of the jump up in competition against Buffalo, books have tacked on added points.

Philadelphia officially opened as an 8.5-point home chalk and bounced between -8 and -9 on Tuesday afternoon. My NFL power ratings pumped out a double-digit spread for this NFC East rivalry, and early Covers Consensus numbers show 69% of picks on Philadelphia.

The Eagles are the best two-way team in the NFC and showed that with a dominant effort on Monday Night Football. Philly outgained the Bucs by almost 300 yards on offense and stymied the Tampa Bay attack to only 4.0 yards per play.

Through three weeks, Philadelphia ranks No. 8 in EPA allowed per play and is doing its best work stuffing the run. The Eagles are budging for only three yards per carry and holding foes to a 31% success rate on the ground.

As for its own rushing attack, it’s no surprise to see Philadelphia atop the running stats. The Eagles are the No. 2 team in EPA per handoff and are picking up almost five yards per run heading into Week 4. That ground game was out in full force Monday, rolling a solid Bucs run defense for 201 yards.

The Commanders have their hands full. Washington was able to bottle up pop-gun attacks like Arizona and Denver in the opening two wins but were torched by the Buffalo offense in Week 3. The Bills went for 386 total yards, doing damage through the air and on the ground.

The Washington offense came back to earth in a bad way in Week 3 with quarterback Sam Howell completing only 19 of 29 passes for 170 yards, no touchdowns, and four — count’em — four interceptions. Howell wasn’t only facing an uptick in defensive competition but was out there without his safety blanket in TE Logan Thomas, who was out due to a concussion. Thomas is still in protocols ahead of Week 4.

The total for this divisional dance hit the board as high as 46 points and quickly slimmed to as low as 44.5 in the first 12 hours of action.

The Commanders offense runs one of the slower tempos in the league and currently sits 28th in EPA per play, which has led to a 1-2 Over/Under mark so far.

The Eagles, given the game script with this big spread and total, could get up big early and then go run heavy in the second half to secure the win. Injuries did impact the defensive results from Philadelphia early on, but the Eagles got some of those guys back and the stop unit looked very strong Monday.

Washington did get the best of the Eagles in their most recent meeting, stunning Philadelphia in front of the Philly faithful 32-21 in what was a weird November for the Birds. However, the Eagles did beat the Commanders 24-8 in D.C. in Week 3 of the 2022 campaign.

Commanders vs Eagles betting trend to know

The Eagles are 13-2 SU and 10-3-2 ATS as home favorites the past three seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Eagles.

Commanders vs Eagles game info

Commanders vs Eagles latest injuries

Commanders vs Eagles weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic