The Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles at Super Bowl LIX on February 9.
This is a Super Bowl rematch from two years ago when Kansas City won 38-35 but my Chiefs vs Eagles predictions are betting on Philly to get revenge in a lower-scoring contest at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Super Bowl 59 on Sunday, February 9.
Chiefs vs Eagles predictions
Chiefs vs Eagles spread
Eagles +1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs' advantages in coaching, experience, and quarterback play aren't enough to offset the fact that the Philadelphia Eagles are better everywhere else. Philly has the better defense, the superior rushing attack, and more talent at wide receiver.
The Chiefs seldom lose during the Patrick Mahomes era but when they have come up short, the formula has been similar. Don't blitz Mahomes, instead dropping multiple defenders into coverage, and keep the Chiefs superstar QB off the field by running the ball.
The Eagles generate pressure despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate in the league and they've been excellent in coverage, allowing just 5.5 yards per pass attempt — a whopping 0.7 yards fewer than second-best Houston. They also have the best RB in the NFL in Saquon Barkley who has rushed for an incredible 2,447 yards in the regular season and playoffs.
I did have doubts about Philadelphia's ability to throw the ball with QB Jalen Hurts, No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown, and tight end Dallas Goedert nursing lower-body injuries. But all three players were impressive in the NFC Championship game and the extra week off before the Super Bowl should help them get closer to full strength.
The Eagles are 15-1 straight up and 11-5 against the spread since their bye in Week 5, with their only defeat coming on a last-minute TD in a game where Hurts was sidelined with a concussion. The Chiefs have won plenty of razor-close contests where the bounces and calls have gone their way. That luck will dry up in the Super Bowl.
Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under
Under 49.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
The public loves to bet the Over in the Super Bowl so it's a bit telling that the total hasn't moved off the opening number of 49.5. Books might be reluctant to move an already lofty total even higher given how strong both defenses have been.
The Eagles lead the NFL in defensive success rate and have allowed just 16.4 points per game since the start of October. They have been excellent against both the run and the pass, ranking first in the league in defensive dropback EPA and defensive rush EPA over that span.
If you omit the Chiefs' regular-season finale when they rested most starters, K.C. is second in the league in scoring defense (18.4 ppg). The Chiefs have been stout against the run and while their secondary struggled down the stretch, it's improved since CB Jaylen Watson returned from the IR in the divisional round.
Both offenses are also methodical and prefer to control the clock. KC finished the regular season 23rd in the league in yards per play (5.1) and Mahomes was 41st out of 43 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards (6.3). Meanwhile, Philly runs the ball at the highest rate in the league and leads the NFL in average time of possession (53.5%).
Chiefs vs Eagles prop bet
Dallas Goedert Over 52.5 receiving yards (-120 at Caesars)
My analysis
The O/U for Dallas Goedert's receiving yards total opened at 48.5 and has already been bet up to 52.5. Goedert had an injury-plagued regular season but the veteran is an important cog in Philadelphia's aerial attack when healthy. The sure-handed tight end has been reliable in the clutch and has the highest target share on the team on third down.
Goedert had seven catches for 85 yards against the Commanders in the NFC Championship game despite playing through an ankle injury. He has now logged 55+ receiving yards in three of his last four games and the extra time off before the Super Bowl will help him get closer to 100%.
The Chiefs surrendered a league-high 70.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season. Steve Spagnuolo's defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league which will result in Hurts throwing the ball more to shorter pass options like Goedert.
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Chiefs vs Eagles live odds
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