Commanders vs Texans Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Washington Runs Wild in Houston

Week 11 is in full swing, and we have a terrific non-conference matchup when the Washington Commanders meet the Houston Texans. 

Washington enters this matchup fresh off a 32-21 Monday night victory over Philadelphia, while Houston hopes to end a four-game losing streak. 

Who will win this matchup? Find out in our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Commanders vs. Texans on Sunday, November 20. 

Commanders vs Texans best odds

Commanders vs Texans picks and predictions

The Commanders have been hot, and my best bet for this contest is Washington -3.

The Commanders have won four of their last five games, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke is a huge reason why. Since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz, Washington has won three of his four starts. The Old Dominion product has delivered, throwing for 840 yards with five TDs alongside four interceptions. Heinicke is more mobile than Wentz but has suffered nine sacks. 

The Commanders don’t expect much from Heinicke, and he will have his work cut out against Houston. The Texans allow just 212 passing yards but rank 25th in passing DVOA. Washington wideouts Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have a combined 37 receptions for 563 yards with two scoring strikes during Heinickes' four starts.

Washington might have better success running the football against the league's worst rushing defense. The Commanders RB by committee Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. combined for 40 carries for 130 rushing yards and a TD last week against Philly and should eat against the Texans' rushing defense. Robinson currently handles the bulk of the rushing duties, while Gibson is the third leading receiver.

The Commanders' defense is one of the best in the league — ranking ninth in total yards — and hasn’t allowed 21.5 points or more in their last five contests. They could see a boost with the return of defensive lineman Chase Young, but if he does suit up will likely be on a snap count.

Texans' QB Davis Mills slung it for 319 yards and a TD last week against the Giants but threw his fifth interception over his previous four games. Wideouts Nico Collins and Chris Moore have been steady, and WR Brandin Cooks leads the team with 60 targets and 391 receiving yards.  

The Texans are a team that competes, but the Commanders should cover the spread Sunday. Houston is 28th in scoring, and outside of rookie RB Dameon Pierce, the Texans don’t have enough offensively to hurt Washington. Pierce is a good one, but the Commanders boast an above-average rushing defense, and they will slow him down. The Texans' offense will stall if they can't get the NFL’s leading rookie rusher from exploding.

Heinicke is a game manager who throws the occasional deep ball. The Texans' defense is solid, but Washington can hurt them on the ground with Robinson and Gibson. That should set up enough passing opportunities to keep the chains and the clock moving, Washington outscores Houston and covers the spread. 

My best bet: Commanders -3 (-107 at PointsBet)

Commanders vs Texans spread analysis

I’ve already shared my reasons for taking the Commanders -3 as my best bet, but I have some additional notes.

Pierce is among the favorites (+200) to win the NFL Rookie of the Year Award. He’s sixth in rushing yards and has scampered for 80 or more yards in six of his nine contests. Washington is 12th in rushing yards allowed, and while Pierce may find a seat at the table, he won’t eat enough to cover the spread. 

Davis Mills has been sacked a dozen times over the past five and faces a Commanders defense with 24 sacks but four interceptions. 

Washington is 5-4-1 against the spread and 3-2-0 ATS as the away team. Houston is 4-4-1 ATS and 2-2-0 ATS this season at NRG Stadium.

Commanders vs Texans Over/Under analysis

The total is 40.5 points, and I’m leaning Under the oddsmakers’ number. 

DVOA metrics don’t love either offense. Washington is No. 25, and Houston ranks 30th in overall DVOA. Defensively, the Commanders are 13th, and the Texans 28th. That suggests the defenses are better than the offenses.

Washington has allowed 85 points over its last five, well under the 21.3 season average. Meanwhile, Houston has surrendered 114 points over its previous five, slightly below the 23 points per matchup it's allowed over its first nine games.

We’ve previously mentioned the Commanders' pass rush, but the Texans are 16th in sacks, and Washington doesn’t protect its quarterback. That could magnify if Commanders center Tyler Larsen can’t play and that can’t be good for the scoreboard.

Washington games trend toward the Under. The Under is 6-4 this season and 3-2 over its five away games. The same trend applies to Houston — as the Under is 5-4 overall and 2-2 at NRG Stadium.

Commanders vs Texans betting trend to know

The Commanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Texans.

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