The NFL season is down to just three games, starting with a pair of conference championships next Sunday.
The Conference Championship odds are rolling out as the Divisional Round comes to a close and I’ll be reacting to the opening NFL odds with my best spread and totals to “Bet Now” and which lines you may want to “Bet Later”.
Conference Championship bet now, bet later picks
- Chiefs at Ravens (-3): Bet Now
- Lions at 49ers (Under 52): Bet Later
- Chiefs at Ravens (Over 44.5): Bet Now
- Lions (+7) at 49ers: Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs at Ravens (-3): Bet Now
The Baltimore Ravens got to sit back and watch the Kansas City Chiefs and Bills tear each other apart in Sunday’s Divisional Round showdown.
Baltimore gets a significant rest edge, having smashed Houston on Saturday, while the Chiefs come into the AFC Championship Game with a laundry list of ailments on the defensive side.
The Ravens are one of the most physical teams in the NFL — on both sides of the ball — so injuries could be a major issue for Kansas City if the stop unit is still tender.
Baltimore has stepped up to the challenge when facing the NFL’s elite, picking up wins over playoff teams like Houston (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Miami.
The Chiefs’ win in Buffalo was solid, but it came on a missed field goal from the Bills, not a game-winning drive from Mahomes. The market perception is a little lukewarm on that result, so I expect money on Baltimore early and often as bettors try to get out ahead of any injury updates to the K.C. defense.
Grab the home side at -3 and avoid the eventual move to -4, which is an underrated key number of football betting.
Best odds to bet Ravens -3 right now: (-110 at DraftKings)
Lions at 49ers (Under 52): Bet Later
The look-ahead lines for this NFC Championship matchup had the total listed as high as 51 points, with the official opener hitting the board at 50.5 points.
It took only minutes to run this number as high as 52 points at some sharper books Sunday night, and I could see the mainstream market following suit.
If you missed out on the shorter opener or expect a lower-scoring finish on Sunday, wait it out and see how high this goes before coming back on the Under. Anything on the other side of the key O/U total of 51 points is good.
The Detroit Lions hit the road to play on the West Coast, marking the first time since Week 14 that Detroit has played outdoors. That’s a span of almost 50 days. The last time the Lions played in an open-air stadium, they managed only 13 points on 267 yards at Chicago.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff — who the San Francisco 49ers know all too well from his days with the L.A. Rams — saw his passing production nosedive in outdoor games this season.
His completion percentage slumped to 63.59% (70.2% indoor), his yards per attempt sunk to 6.47 (vs. 8.09 indoors), and his QB rating looks very different at 82.0 outdoors compared to 108.9 indoors.
The 49ers are the stiffest defensive test Goff & Co. have faced in a while. San Francisco was able to hold Green Bay to 21 points in the Divisional Round, thanks in part to a red zone defense that limited the Packers to 2 of 5 success inside the 20-yard line. That 24-21 final stayed under the closing total of 50.5 points on Saturday.
San Francisco’s attack could be down a big weapon in Swiss Army knife Deebo Samuel, who left the Divisional Round game with a shoulder injury. He did suffer a hairline fracture in his shoulder earlier this year, so keep an eye out for an update on his status.
The Niners can also run a plodding pace with the football, leaning into their ground game and pre-snap motion which saps seconds off the play clock. San Francisco ranked slowest in tempo in terms of seconds per snap.
If you wonder about the Under in the NFC Championship, wait and make sure you get something north of 51 points.
Chiefs at Ravens (Over 44.5): Bet Now
The look-ahead total for this potential AFC Championship Game pairing was 44.5 points before the Chiefs snuck out of Orchard Park with a 27-24 win on Sunday. The official opener landed between that number and 45.5 points.
Kansas City didn’t come out of that Divisional Round contest unscathed. The Chiefs have notable injuries on defense with Willie Gay and Mike Edwards leaving Sunday’s game, and All-Pro corner Trent McDuffie playing through an ankle injury.
Kansas City was bullied on the ground for 186 rushing yards and Buffalo just missed on some home run passes in the second half. The Chiefs now face a well-rested Ravens crew that can run and pass with potential big gaps in their defense.
Baltimore scored 34 points against the Texans on Saturday while holding C.J. Stroud and the Houston offense to only 10 points. Patrick Mahomes & Co. are a big step up in competition and experience.
The Chiefs offense sputtered at times this season but seems to be peaking at the perfect spot. Kansas City had 26 points against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card Round and 27 points vs. the Bills, and still left points on the table with a 4-for-10 record inside the red zone.
Weather could be rainy in Baltimore this coming Sunday, but winds aren’t expected to be as wild as Saturday’s contest with Houston. If K.C. is going to be competitive, it’s all on the offense. I only see this going up.
Best odds to bet Over 44.5 right now: (+102 at Pinnacle)
Lions (+7) at 49ers: Bet Later
The Lions were +6.5 on the look-ahead line ahead of their Divisional Round win over Tampa Bay. Once the confetti popped inside Ford Field on Sunday night, oddsmakers stuck to their guns with the 49ers officially opening as 6.5-point home chalk.
That number ticked up to the touchdown within the first 15 minutes of action, and as of 7:30 p.m. ET, most sportsbooks are dealing Detroit as an expensive TD underdog while a few shops are still at +6.5.
There are several factors pushing that spread up: San Francisco’s rest advantage, the Lions playing on the road and outdoors for the first time in forever, and a dinged-up Detroit offensive line.
Anchoring this spread at the -6.5/-7 is an injury to 49ers’ dual-threat talent Deebo Samuel, who left the Divisional Round win early on with a shoulder injury. As of Sunday night, Deebo told reporters he was “OK” while coach Kyle Shanahan was bit more guarded with the status of his star WR.
Tests on Samuel’s shoulder will be done early this week, and he does get the extra day to rest with the 49ers beating Green Bay this past Saturday. Should he get the thumbs up (be it before or on gameday), we could see this spread push up to Detroit +7.5 — a vital stop above the key number if you like the underdog.
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