NFL Contract Incentives and Statistical Milestones: Mahomes Needs Huge Game to Break Manning's Record

There is no "I" in team, but there’s certainly some "me" in milestones. Now that Week 18 has arrived, NFL player prop bettors should be paying very close attention to single-season records, NFL milestones, and contract incentives to gain a profitable edge.

Last season we saw a handful of players get some extra looks over the final couple of weeks strictly because of these powerful enticements. This year should be no different with plenty of money — and glory — on the line and only one week of games remaining.

Here are some of the most notable milestones and thresholds NFL prop bettors should consider as the 2022 season winds down.

Single-season records

Patrick Mahomes: Single-season passing record

Patrick Mahomes needs 430 more passing this week vs. the Las Vegas Raiders to pass Peyton Manning’s single-season record of 5,477 passing yards.

The KC quarterback threw for 296 yards vs. the Raiders in Week 5 but Mahomes has a few things in his favor this week, which includes an indoor game vs. a bad defense, a push for the No.1 seed in the AFC, and a rejuvenated Vegas offense that could push the scoring.

Justin Jefferson: Single-season receiving yards record

Justin Jefferson needs 194 receiving yards to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yard record of 1,964. A tall task indeed.

The Minnesota receiver was more worried about his matchup with Jaire Alexander and posted his lowest volume day of the season in Week 17 with just one catch for 15 yards.

Now, the betting favorite for offensive player of the year has to record a number he’s topped just once this year vs. a bad Chicago defense. Soldier Field isn’t the greatest setting for this, either. Jefferson had 154 yards receiving vs. the Bears in Week 5, but that was indoors. 

NFL contract incentives Week 18

Kalif Raymond

Detroit Lions WR Kalif Raymond will make $125,000 for 50 catches and another $125,000 at 500 yards. He currently has 48 catches and 400 yards heading into a Week 18 meeting vs. the Packers at Lambeau Field. His prop markets aren’t widely available but could open closer to Sunday’s kick-off.

Jamaal Williams

Raymond's teammate Jamaal Williams will make $250,000 for 1,000 yards rushing and currently sits at 994 rushing yards with a Week 18 date vs. the Packers’ No. 31 DVOA rush defense.

Zay Jones 

Jaguars receiver Zay Jones will make $250,000 at 80 receptions and another $500,000 at 900 receiving yards. The Jacksonville receiver currently sits at 78 catches and 802 yards.

He’ll face the Titans' No.28-ranked DVOA pass defense in Week 18 in a must-win game. He’s topped 100 receiving yards twice this season and posted an 8/77/1 line vs. Tennessee in Week 14.

Christian Kirk

Another Jacksonville wide receiver can pad his pockets with a big game this weekend as Christian Kirk can earn $500,000 for 80 catches and another $500,000 at 1,100 receiving yards. He currently has 78 catches for 1,009 yards and has a great matchup vs. the Titans in Week 18. Kirk had five catches for 45 yards vs. Tennessee in Week 14.

DeAndre Carter

DeAndre Carter has been losing snaps since the Chargers’ receivers have gotten healthier, but he can earn $250,000 with two more receptions this weekend vs. the Broncos.

Since Week 13, he’s seen just nine targets that he's turned into five catches. This could also be a market that opens closer to Sunday and would certainly be worth a look if his reception total opened at 1.5.

Gerald Everett

Chargers tight end Gerald Everett is set to make an extra $250,000 if he can reach 60 receptions on the season. He currently has 55 but has posted six five-catch games this season and faces a Denver defense that allows the second-most receptions to opposing TEs at 5.9 per game. Everett caught five of his seven targets vs. Denver back in Week 6.

Tyler Higbee

Sticking with tight ends, Tyler Higbee needs just 13 more receiving yards to hit 600 on the season and earn $500,000. His receiving total closed at 36.5 yards last week but should see a drop in Week 18 after a three-catch, 11-yard performance last week.

He’ll face a Seattle team against whom he went 2/14/0 in Week 13. With the injuries to the L.A. offensive line, Higbee has been asked to block more frequently, which is decreasing his role in the passing game.

Za'Darius Smith

Minnesota’s Za’Darius Smith needs just one more sack to earn a $750,000 incentive bonus. The Vikings will face the Bears, who gave up seven sacks last week alone. He has 0.5 sacks over his last six games and recorded 0.5 sacks in the last meeting this season vs. the Bears.

Carl Lawson

Jets’ EDGE rusher Carl Lawson can earn $600,000 if he can record eight sacks this season. He currently has seven and faces Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins, who gave up two sacks last week.

Season milestones

Passing yards

Tom Brady needs 390 passing yards vs. the Falcons indoors this week to reach 5,000 passing yards on the season, which would be just the third time he’s done it over his 23-year career. 

Meanwhile, Patriots QB Mac Jones needs 247 passing yards to hit 3,000 on the season. The Pats face the Bills in Week 18. Jones was limited to 195 yards on 22 of 36 passing against Buffalo on December 1. 

Rushing yards

Derrick Henry is 71 yards shy of 1,500 rushing yards on the season. His rushing total will be higher than this in Week 18 vs. the Jaguars, against whom he ran for 121 yards on 17 carries in Week 14. He’ll also be rested after not playing last week.

Najee Harris needs 46 rushing yards to hit 1,000 on the season. The Steelers face the Browns and their awful run defense this week and if Harris can hit the century mark vs. the Ravens, 46 yards should be a lay-up vs. Cleveland.

Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III is 64 yards away from 1,000 yards rushing in his rookie NFL season. He's been leaned on heavily since returning from injury and faces the flag-waving Rams in Week 18. He has back-to-back 100-yard games going into the final week.

Looking at another rookie, Atlanta’s Tyler Allgeier needs 100 yards to hit the 1,000-yard mark on the ground. He rushed 20 times for 83 yards last week and faces the Bucs at home this week. The fifth-round rookie has only hit the century mark once this year (139 yards vs. New Orleans in Week 15) but is averaging 5.6 yards per carry and 98 yards per game since the Falcons switched to QB Desmond Ridder. Allgeier’s rushing total closed as high as 80.5 yards in Week 17 vs. the Cardinals.

Receiving yards

Brandon Aiyuk needs 44 yards to reach 1,000 yards on the season. He is coming off a 100-yard game and has topped 80 yards in three straight — all with Deebo Samuel out. The 49ers face the Cardinals and their 20th-ranked DVOA pass defense this weekend.

A.J. Brown is 99 yards shy of 1,500 receiving yards on the season and faces the Giants in Week 18. The Eagles wideout hauled in 70 yards on four completions in his last game vs. New York on December 11, the lowest total of his last five games.

T.J. Hockenson needs a big game vs. the Bears this week if he wants to hit the 1,000-yard mark, with the Minnesota TE currently 102 yards short of the mark.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is also 102 yards shy of 1,000 receiving yards. He’ll face the Raiders indoors this week. The KC receiver has two 100-yard games this season but none over his last eight games. He hauled in just 33 yards in Kansas City's Week 5 clash with Vegas.

Michael Pittman Jr. needs 105 receiving yards this week vs. the Texans but with Sam Ehlinger under center, Pittman making back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons is unlikely. 

Finally, DJ Moore needs a massive Week 18 if he wants to hit the 1,000-yard milestone. The Carolina receiver is currently sitting at 878 receiving yards and is coming off a 117-yard performance last week. He’ll face the Saints indoors this week. Moore's season-high came against the Falcons when he tallied 152 yards on six receptions in Week 8. However, he caught just one pass for two yards in the Panthers' win over New Orleans in Week 3.

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