Cowboys vs Eagles Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Cooper Rush Held in Check

The heated NFC East race gets the primetime treatment in NFL Week 6 when the Dallas Cowboys visit the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

Philadelphia is a perfect 5-0 straight up (3-2 ATS), living up to the offseason hype that made this team the darling of the futures markets this summer. The Eagles are also getting love from the Week 6 odds, jumping up as high as 6.5-point home favorites for this vital divisional matchup.

Dallas has momentum after looking lifeless way back in Week 1, taking a 4-1 SU mark with it into the Linc. The Cowboys continue to survive without QB1 Dak Prescott, thanks to the steady play of backup Cooper Rush and a defense that’s playing an extremely disruptive brand of football.

I try to make sense of the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Cowboys at Eagles on October 16.

Cowboys vs Eagles best odds

Cowboys vs Eagles picks and predictions

If you read my Bet Now, Bet Later and NFL Underdogs articles earlier in the week, you’ll know I’m on the Under 43.5 (bet Sunday night) and grabbed the Cowboys +6.5 when that spread spiked Wednesday. 

I don’t want to double up on analysis for those bets, so that means an oven-fresh wager for this NFL picks and predictions piece. And suddenly, I’m starting to have a lot of action on this Sunday nighter.

Cooper Rush has been one of the most compelling stories of the 2022 season, leading the Cowboys to four straight wins in place of the injured Dak Prescott. Rush has done what Dallas needs him to do: give some semblance of a passing game and DO NOT TURN THE BALL OVER. So far, so good.

The shine is coming off Rush, however, after the ballyhooed backup finished 10-for-16 for just 102 passing yards against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. He dropped back only 19 times in that game and when he did, Rush wasn’t sharp. Dallas finished Week 5 with the second lowest EPA per dropback across the league as well as owned the worst success rate for a passing offense (31.6%).

Rush’s Sunday night passing yards prop has a total of 222.5 yards — a mark he’s only surpassed once in 2022 and this Eagles stop unit is the best pass defense he’s faced all season. On top of that, the Cowboys are leaning into the ground game of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott.

The Dallas attack was more run focused in Week 5 and has gradually been ramping up the rush in recent outings. The Cowboys handed off on 34 plays for 163 yards against the Rams (over 64% of offensive snaps), bullying the second-best run stop unit in terms of EPA allowed per handoff. 

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore told the media that the offense wants to complement the defense and help it out by running the ball, controlling the tempo, and not turning it over. He said last week that the Cowboys wanted to run the ball more in respect of the Rams’ pass rush, getting gains with the rushing attack and avoiding longer third downs. 

Moore added that the plan had success and they continued to run the ball — a strategy that fits this matchup with Philadelphia very well. The Eagles have a nasty pass rush that has drummed up pressure on almost 28% of dropbacks and manifested itself into 17 sacks through five games. 

What’s more, this Eagles team is susceptible to the ground and pound — an area of Philadelphia’s defense that hasn’t been tested much due to the offense building big leads early on and forcing foes to abandon the run game. On the season, Philly is allowing five yards per carry and ranks out 20th in run defense DVOA. 

Philadelphia could very well opt to sell out against the run on Sunday and stack the box, putting the pressure on Rush to make plays. Philly has a very sound secondary along with good coverage linebackers in T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s deep zones protect against anything over the top.

As well, the Eagles are a possession team behind a run-centric attack that keeps the chains moving, either with the stable of RBs or with the legs of dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia is second in time of possession (average 33:52) and could keep the Cowboys offense parked on the sideline for extended series.

As the Cowboys proved in the win at Los Angeles last Sunday, they don’t need Rush to be a superstar and can win without him playing above expectations. My rough projections have him topping out between 180 and 190 yards passing, giving plenty of headroom for the Under 222.5 yards on Sunday Night Football.

My best bet: Cooper Rush Under 222.5 passing yards (-115)

Cowboys vs Eagles spread analysis

The look-ahead line for the divisional dance was set at pick’em back in the summer but a lot has changed over five weeks of football. The official Week 6 opener hit the board at Eagles -5.5, touting that undefeated record and facing a Dallas offense still without Prescott under center.

This is also a tougher schedule spot for America’s Team. Dallas will be playing its second straight road game Sunday night and its third away tilt in four weeks – a compressed stretch of four games in the past 21 days.

Injury issues to Philadelphia’s offensive line trimmed this spread to -5 earlier in the week but as positive updates about that pass protection leaked out of Wednesday’s practice, we saw a surge of action on the Eagles and that pumped this point spread as high as -6.5.

PointsBet books are reporting 64% of bets on Dallas but just 54% of the handle. Our Covers Consensus is showing 66% of picks on the visiting Cowboys as well, but the line is still moving away from that public opinion and books react to larger and more respected wagers on Philadelphia.

Cowboys vs Eagles Over/Under analysis

This look-ahead total was sitting as high as 49.5 points this summer, but that was before Dallas lost QB Dak Prescott to injury in Week 1. The official Week 6 opener hit the board at 43.5 points on Sunday night and instantly took Under money, dragging this number down as low as 42 as of Thursday afternoon.

The Cowboys' offense has been much tamer with Rush under center, with the playbook leaning heavily on the run game. Dallas is handing off on 54.39% of snaps the past three games while the offense is gaining only 5.3 yards per play in that span.

The beef of this low total is based on the prowess of these two defenses, however. Dallas enters Week 6 ranked out No. 4 in EPA per play and is doing a great job getting to quarterbacks with the highest pressure rate per dropback in the league. 

Philadelphia also sits among the defensive elite after five games, sitting No. 6 in EPA allowed per play. The Eagles are very stingy against the pass, ranked No. 3 in Pass Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders, allowing only five yards per attempt and racking up 17 sacks so far – something the 2021 team struggled with.

Dallas enters this Sunday night game with a 0-4-1 Over/Under count while Philadelphia has gone 2-3 O/U in 2022. According to PointsBet, 52% of bets are on the Under while 83% of the money is banking on a low-scoring finish in Philly Sunday night.

Cowboys vs Eagles betting trend to know

The Under is 13-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 17 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Eagles.

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