New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is one of the more polarizing players in the NFL, especially after the G-Men started the season 0-2, and many called on the team to bench their high-priced passer.
However, Jones played his best game in a long time in the Week 3 win over Cleveland, and tonight's Cowboys vs. Giants predictions expect him to carry that momentum into TNF by putting his legs to work.
Find out all the deets in my NFL picks for the latest primetime matchup.
Cowboys vs Giants TNF prediction
My best bet
Daniel Jones Over 6.5 rushing attempts (+100 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Daniel Jones makes up for his ho-hum passing prowess with his ability to break off plays with his legs, and against an aggressive Dallas Cowboys defense, he could be running for his life.
The Cowboys continue to blitz a lot under new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, generating the highest pressure rate per dropback entering Week 4. That will have Jones hearing footsteps in the pocket, tucking and taking off as Dallas turns up the heat.
While Jones struggles as a passer under pressure, PFF charts him as one of the better running QBs in those situations. He ran six times vs. the Vikings’ blitz-heavy schemes in Week 1, five times in the weirdo loss to Washington in Week 2, and carried the ball eight times against the Browns last Sunday.
On top of those carries prompted by pass pressure, the New York Giants will call Jones’ number on designed runs and give him the choice to rush with plenty of RPO schemes in the playbook.
The Giants should go after the Cowboys' defense on the ground, considering Dallas ranks dead last in many run-stop stats to start the season. Big D watched Lamar Jackson run 14 times for 87 yards rushing and a touchdown last Sunday.
Jones, who has recorded nine or more carries in three of his last five full games against Dallas, is projected for as many as 7.6 rushing attempts on Thursday night. My number is a bit more tempered at 6.6 with a higher ceiling, considering the makeup of the Cowboys’ stop unit.
Cowboys vs Giants TNF same-game parlay
Daniel Jones 25+ rushing yards
Daniel Jones anytime touchdown
New York Giants +5.5
With all those carries come rushing yards. Jones is projected for more than 25 yards on the ground this Thursday.
With Malik Nabers getting blanketed in the red zone, Jones is a threat to tuck and take it. Dallas has already allowed two touchdowns to QBs this season.
The Cowboys defense is losing faith in new DC Mike Zimmer and the offense can’t do much beyond CeeDee Lamb. I like the divisional dog at home on Thursday.
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Cowboys vs Giants odds
Cowboys vs Giants live odds
Cowboys vs Giants opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -6.5 (-120) | New York +6.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Dallas -334 | New York +270
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-115) | Under 43.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Cowboys vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line for this NFC East rivalry was Dallas -7 in the summer, but with the Cowboys buckling for big points the past two weeks, the official Week 4 open hit the board at Dallas -5.5.
- That spread dropped quickly, with Giants money moving the line as low as -4. Respected money bought back the Cowboys at that low and pumped this spread back to Dallas -5.5 and even -6 at some shops.
- A whopping 83% of tickets and 86% of handle are on the Cowboys spread according to FanDuel.
- The Over/Under total opened at 43.5 points and has crept up to 45.5 O/U after the Giant's offense showed life in the win over Cleveland.
- Bettors are nearly divided on the game total, with 55% of tickets and 54 of handle on the Over.
- The weather for East Rutherford could be wet on Thursday night. Rain showers are in the region, possibly showing up in the second half of Thursday’s outing.
☁️TNF WEATHER REPORT: DALLAS @ NY GIANTS🌧️
— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) September 26, 2024
Rain in the area and some forecasts showing a 75% chance of showers in the first half of this 8:15 pm ET kickoff.
Rain expected to clear for second half. Temps "feel like" 88 degrees with light winds and gusts up to 17 mph in 1H. pic.twitter.com/2d8Sxexl9i
Cowboys vs Giants betting trend to know
New York is 11-6-1 ATS inside MetLife Stadium under head coach Brian Daboll. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Giants.
Cowboys vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-26, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
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