There are a lot of moving parts to Monday Night Football’s divisional battle between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants at MetLife Stadium.
Dak Prescott is recovering quicker than projected, Micah Parsons was held out of Friday’s walkthrough with an illness, and the Giants’ are thin in the secondary and might not have Kadarius Toney available for this game.
Find out where my best bets lie in my free NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football between the Cowboys and Giants.
Cowboys vs Giants props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cowboys vs Giants MNF props
Nothing sexy here
With Cooper Rush under center last week, the Cowboys ran the ball 46% of the time with a positive-to-neutral game script. They played conservatively with the lead, and bettors should expect the same on Monday night.
Ezekiel Elliott still got the majority of carries (15 to 9 vs. Tony Pollard), and I’m betting on Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore’s commitment to the higher-paid back in a game that should have a similar game script as Week 2.
Through two weeks, Elliott has played 30% more snaps than Pollard and out-snapped him in Week 2, 41 to 24. The real alarm for Pollard is the fact that the fourth-year RB has been on the field just 20 times through weeks on running snaps. Whether you agree or not, Elliott is the preferred back and has a great matchup vs. a New York defense that sits ranks amongst the 10 worst teams in success rate and EPA/play vs. the rush.
With Micahel Gallup likely returning, this injured New York secondary will also have to worry about two decent receiving options in Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, preventing them from stacking the box more if Gallup were out.
THE BLITZ is projecting 66 yards for the Cowboy starter. With a rushing total of 58.5 that's trending upwards, I’m hitting the Over. This is a volume-based bet in a game that has plenty of uncertainties with all the injury news.
Ezekiel Elliott Prop: Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)
What a Rush
Sometimes betting isn’t taking the best player, but taking the best price.
Cooper Rush might be a fringe starter in the NFL, but he is currently paying +170 to throw two or more TD passes.
The Dallas backup was great in a scripted opening drive last week vs. the Panthers, completing four of his five passes, including a nine-yard touchdown to Noah Brown. He almost had a second TD on the following drive, but a review called back a Tony Pollard 47-yard TD pass that he later punched in on the following play.
Rush will likely have Michael Gallup back, with a collection of Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Tony Pollard already in place. The Cowboys QB will also face a New York secondary that had two defensive backs not practice this week, with another limited.
At +180, this is one of the better plus-money plays available, and Rush was more than competent in Week 2.
Cooper Rush Prop: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (+180)
Under pressure
Daniel Jones has been under attack for two weeks. He’s been getting abused behind a porous offensive line (49% pressure on dropbacks) and has taken a league-leading 10 sacks.
Now he faces a Top-10 pass rush, and if Micah Parsons gets over his reported non-COVID cold, it could be another long game for the New York signal-caller.
Daniel Jones when under pressure:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 13, 2022
with Brian Daboll: 78% comp, 7.7 YPA
with Jason Garrett: 51% comp, 5.4 YPA
that's the good news
the bad news was the Giants allowed pressure on 53% of non-blitz dropbacks, #32 in NFL
preview of NYG/CAR via @LordReebshttps://t.co/8gQ2M3TzaS
Thanks to all the pressure and sacks, Jones has been unable to get the ball downfield and sits in the Mitch Trubisky territory in total air yards per game. Running back Saquon Barkley has seen 11 of the team’s 53 total targets and will see action in the passing game again Monday night.
Getting Barkley involved in the passing game again should offset the unavoidable Dallas pass rush. The starting RB has seen at least four targets in each game this season and saw 38 of his 61 snaps last week on passing plays.
His receiving total has also dropped to 23.5 yards after closing at 29.5 in Week 2 and 31.5 in Week 1. Dallas is allowing 25.5 receiving yards to opposing RBs, which is a middle-of-the-pack number.
Saquon Barkley Prop: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-115)
