Two NFC East rivals in need of a win to get back to .500 will face off on Thursday Night Football this week as the Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants. This promises to be a relatively high-scoring game, which leaves us with plenty of targets for our NFL picks this week.
I am targeting players from both sides with my Cowboys vs. Giants predictions including New York running back Devin Singletary, who is enjoying a productive start to his season.
Cowboys vs Giants TNF props
- Devin Singletary Over 60.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
- Daniel Jones Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+215 at FanDuel)
- Jalen Tolbert anytime touchdown (+420 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Cowboys vs Giants TNF props
Prop bet #1: Devin Singletary Over 60.5 rushing yards
While you won’t find Devin Singletary among the league’s leading rushers, there’s no denying that he’s been an effective weapon out of the New York Giants backfield. Singletary has scored twice this year and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’s also run the ball 42 times already this year as New York is using him as a true three-down back.
Singletary’s usage has been higher in each of the last two games — the blowout loss against the Minnesota Vikings somewhat took him out of the offense as a runner — getting 16 carries against both the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Browns. In each of those games, he has picked up at least 65 yards on the ground.
The Giants now face a Dallas team that has allowed a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry over their first three games. This Cowboys defense can be exploited in multiple ways, but the ground game has to be a part of that plan, which will mean a lot of work for Singletary.
It’s hard to imagine Singletary getting less than 15 carries on Thursday, and against the Cowboys, that should mean plenty of yardage. I’m taking the Over at a modest 60.5 rushing yards.
Prop bet #2: Daniel Jones Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Giants fans will be the first to tell you that Daniel Jones has been a disappointment, especially considering his outsized contract. But the 27-year-old has played well over the last couple of weeks, tossing two touchdowns in each of those games.
Granted, this isn’t exactly typical for Jones. He has only managed to throw multiple touchdowns 18 times in his 63 career games. That includes a couple of outings in which Jones either didn’t start or didn’t play much but gives a pretty good indication of how little scoring he has produced throughout his career.
It is hard to ignore the fact that Jones put up good numbers against both the Commanders and the Browns, however, and he gets another less-than-imposing defense on Thursday against the Cowboys. Dallas is allowing a poor 7.4 yards per attempt through the air, and opposition quarterbacks are throwing to a reasonable 85.5 rating. The Cowboys allowed 29.7 ppg, one of the worst figures in the league.
The Cowboys aren’t awful against the passing game, and Jones isn’t a great quarterback. If this bet was offering even money, I’d be uncertain about taking it. But with a +215 offer on Jones to throw two touchdowns – something that can happen either if he plays well, or if the Giants fall behind early and end up throwing the ball a lot – I think there’s tremendous value on this bet.
Prop bet #3: Jalen Tolbert anytime touchdown
The Dallas Cowboys are averaging 25.7 ppg this season and should be able to move the ball against a mediocre Giants defense that is allowing 5.6 yards per play. Dak Prescott should be able to put up numbers through the air against a New York secondary allowing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes and an overall 96.5 QB rating so far on the season.
I’m expecting the Cowboys to pick up at least a couple of touchdowns through the air, which means it’s smart to target their receivers with touchdown props. But the most obvious choice, CeeDee Lamb, is only offering -130 on an anytime score. Lamb only has one score in his first three games, so that’s not tempting me.
Instead, I’ll go with Jalen Tolbert, who is playing a surprisingly large role in the Cowboys offense so far this year. He has made 10 catches on 16 targets, making him a reliable target in an offense that likes to throw the ball. He’s second on the team in targets, receptions, and yardage, and is averaging 13.6 yards per catch.
Tolbert isn’t going to score a ton this year, but he’s coming off a game where he picked up a touchdown and was again targeted a solid five times, making three catches. Tolbert is in no way a guarantee to score this (or any) week, but the +420 odds on his anytime touchdown prop is lagging way behind his usage for Dallas. Get in on this scoring prop now while the payouts are still far too high.
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