The final Thursday night game of the season features the 10-point favorite Dallas Cowboys traveling to Nashville to take on Malik Willis and the Tennessee Titans. The home side has nothing to play for this week, as its Week 18 matchup with the Jaguars will determine the AFC South winner.
Because of this, bettors won’t be seeing many player prop markets open early, if at all. But fear not, there is still some value out there in the touchdown market, and I have a +3,300 banger that I absolutely love Thursday night.
Here are my player prop picks for Thursday Night Football’s battle between the Cowboys and Titans.
Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Titans betting preview and Jared Hochman's CeeDee Lamb prop picks.
Cowboys vs Titans props
- Elliott anytime TD (+105)
- Davis anytime TD (+750) / last TD (+3,300)
- Willis Under 40.5 rushing yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cowboys vs Titans TNF props
Auto-Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott gets the majority of carries in the red zone, has a touchdown in eight straight games, and is plus money to score on Thursday night...
Zeke is coming off a game where he out-carried Tony Pollard 16 to nine (his biggest rush percentage since returning from injury) and took one of his three red zone attempts into the end zone — something he's done in each of his six games since returning to the lineup.
Elliott is being priced at +105, likely due to the Titans’ No. 1 rush defense, but this is a Dallas team that went into Week 16 without posting a PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation) in a single game on the season.
Dallas is running the ball at the fourth-highest rate on the road. It’s hard to see a scenario where Elliott doesn’t get a good couple of opportunities to score near the goal line as a 10-point favorite, as he faces a team with a quarterback that can’t (or isn’t allowed) to throw the ball.
Considering his production, usage, and the game script, Elliott to score should be set at -130 or shorter. The Titans just lost to Houston, and the quick turnaround isn’t helping them either.
Ezekiel Elliott Prop: Anytime touchdown (+105)
The other Davis
Tony Pollard is nursing a thigh injury this week at practice, and coach Mike McCarthy has already stated that third-string running back Malik Davis will be a featured player at practice and a contingency plan for Pollard.
This is great news for Elliott but also for Davis, who could see plenty of late action if this game gets out of hand — especially with the Titans not having anything to play for.
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy on what RB Tony Pollard (thigh) will do in practice today: “We’re not doing a whole lot, but he’ll be a part of it.” Team to also make sure RB Malik Davis sees a good amount of reps, McCarthy added.
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) December 27, 2022
Davis saw a garbage-time role back in Week 13, where he took three carries for 39 yards and a touchdown with the Cowboys leading by 28 points in the fourth quarter. This week, with the quick turnaround, his role could be even bigger.
It’s not often we hear coaches talking about their third RB, and it has me immediately running to Davis’ touchdown market (he has no other prop markets), where he can be found as long as +750 to score anytime and +3,300 to get the last TD.
Malik Davis Prop: Anytime touchdown (+750 at bet365) / Last touchdown (+3,300 at bet365)
Inflation and uncertainty
Malik Willis did not have a great game in his third NFL start. He attempted 23 passes (mostly because of the game script) but also only threw for 99 yards thanks to just 4.5 yards per attempt. Only Nick Foles had a worse passer rating in Week 16. Willis also took four sacks and was under a ton of pressure.
Willis’ rushing total closed at 33.5 last week and after collecting 43 yards on seven carries vs. one of the softest defenses in football, it has jumped to 40.5 yards for Thursday in a game I’m not even sure the QB will finish.
Week 17 means nothing to the Titans, who are only concerned about their Week 18 game vs. the Jaguars for the divisional crown. This could mean a quick hook for Willis if things are getting out of hand or even just to protect him and ensure he can play in next week’s season-deciding game as Ryan Tannehill won’t be an option.
Willis has also taken at least three sacks in each of his three starts this season and considering the lack of volume he’s had as a passer, there could be some concerning hits on the hopeful Week 18 starter if Willis needs to pass often vs. the Dallas defense.
With a rushing market that has jumped from 33.5 to 40.5, a ton of uncertainty in this game regarding playing time for all the Titans, and Tennessee missing their best offensive player in Derrick Henry, this offense is going nowhere Thursday.
I even think the 40.5 total is two yards too high — even if the Titans wanted to win this game.
Malik Willis Prop: Under 40.5 rushing yards (-110)
