The Dallas Cowboys rank up there with the more public teams in professional sports, as legions of Blue and Silver faithful blindly bet into their NFL odds every Sunday.
“America’s Team” has made good on that action. Dallas has won 12 games in each of the last two seasons and has a combined 23-11 against the spread record in that span (67.6%).
Expectations are always high among Cowboys fans, but the betting markets believe in Dallas as well.
NFL futures has the season win total leaning toward 11 victories and the look-ahead lines agree, with the Cowboys laying the points in at least 11 games. Even Super Bowl odds are showing Big D some big love, pricing Dallas as the sixth overall favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1995.
This is one of the better two-way teams in the NFL, which should mean more gambling gold again this season. At least until the playoffs. Here’s my 2023 Dallas Cowboys NFL betting preview.
Dallas Cowboys futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1,400 | +1,300 | +1,500 |
| Win conference | +600 | +600 | +650 |
| Win division | +190 | +175 | +165 |
| Make playoffs | -230 | -225 | -210 |
| O9.5 wins | -170 | -162 | -145* |
| U9.5 wins | +145 | +132 | +125* |
*Win total is 10.0 at Caesars
Best futures bet: Second in NFC East (+135)
Dallas sits high up in my 2023 NFL power ratings, pegged as the ninth-best team (64.37/100) when you consider the season win projections, early spreads, and strength of schedule. That’s still well behind the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 2 at 79.41/100).
The Eagles are the betting chalk in at least 15 games, with a pick’em in place for their Week 14 trip to Dallas on Sunday Night Football.
The Cowboys have a slightly easier schedule in 2023 — mostly because they miss Kansas City and Philly does not — but things could go sour early on for Dallas. It faces a daunting task in the first six weeks and a losing record would throw gas on the fire under McCarthy’s office chair.
That’s not to say the Cowboys won’t have a great season, but the NFC East standings will mirror last year’s finish when 12 wins weren’t enough to claim the division crown.
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Dallas Cowboys betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
One of the best stop units in the NFL got better this offseason, and it all started with convincing Dan Quinn to stick around.
He’s the mastermind behind one of the more disruptive defenses in recent years, with Dallas leading the land in takeaways the past two seasons (67 totals) along with 95 combined sacks and a Top-4 pressure rate in that span.
Edge rusher Micah Parsons enters Year 3 looking for his third All-Pro nod, Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs haunts the dreams of rival QBs, and the Cowboys added depth in the secondary by trading for former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore.
It’s not just those game-changing plays cashing in Cowboys bets either. Dallas checks all the boxes in terms of advanced metrics too, sitting No. 2 in EPA allowed as well as Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Preseason polls have Dallas’ defense in that same spot heading into 2023, ranked among the league’s elite stop units. The addition of Gilmore should stop some of the bleeding in the pass game, as the Cowboys’ aggressive style has left them vulnerable to home run plays.
What will lose bets: Turnovers
At first, they were unlucky bounces that popped up in the air and found their way into the hands of defenders. But then things got even uglier for Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.
Bad decisions, piss-poor timing, and forcing throws led to six multi-interception games, including a crushing two INTs in the Divisional Round loss to San Francisco. The Cowboys went 3-3 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in those awful outings.
When it was all said and done, Prescott threw a league-high 17 interceptions in 2022-23 and negated those extra possessions being handed over by the work of the ball-hawking defense. Oh, and he did so in only 14 total games (regular and postseason).
McCarthy and new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer are trying to remedy those miscues by installing a quicker-hitting offense that would limit the amount of time Prescott holds the ball. This is a new system that features new receivers, with Brandin Cooks now the No. 2 and a rotation of unproven tight ends — a position Prescott loves to target.
Dak isn’t expected to log any preseason reps which could mean growing pains for this playbook, especially with dangerous defenses like the Jets, Patriots, and 49ers on deck in the opening five weeks. Prescott’s interception prop sits at 12.5 (Under -125). He could be halfway there by Halloween if he doesn’t get right.
Dallas Cowboys 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @  New York Giants |
-3 |
| 2 | vs  New York Jets |
-3 |
| 3 | @  Arizona Cardinals |
-7 |
| 4 | vs  New England Patriots |
-4.5 |
| 5 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+2.5 |
| 6 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
+1 |
| 7 | BYE | |
| 8 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-7 |
| 9 | @  Philadelphia Eagles |
+3 |
| 10 | vs New York Giants |
-5.5 |
| 11 | @  Carolina Panthers |
-3.5 |
| 12 | vs  Washington Commanders |
-6 |
| 13 | vs  Seattle Seahawks |
-3.5 |
| 14 | vs Philadelphia Eagles |
-1 |
| 15 | @  Buffalo Bills |
+4 |
| 16 | @  Miami Dolphins |
+1.5 |
| 17 | vs  Detroit Lions |
-3.5 |
| 18 | @ Washington Commanders |
-3 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
As mentioned, the preseason odds are optimistic about the Cowboys in 2023.
The season win total is a juiced Over 10 (-120) and the look-ahead lines have Dallas laying the points in 11 games with one sitting at a pick’em (Week 14 vs. Philadelphia). In seven of those games, the Cowboys are -4 or higher and are underdogs of a field goal or less in three of those contests as pups.
A strength of schedule ranked 10th in toughness tempers my NFL power ratings a bit, but the Cowboys come in ninth overall, behind the likes of Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers but ahead of teams like Detroit, New Orleans, and the Jets.
We’ll find out if the Cowboys are up to the task in 2023 with a very challenging opening slate that sends them on the road for four of their first six showings, including facing Top-5 defenses in the Jets, Patriots, and 49ers. It all starts, however, in East Rutherford for Sunday Night Football in Week 1.
Bookies have Dallas laying -3 visiting the Giants while my ratings produce a spread of just shy of -5. Given, divisional games should be shown a bit more respect. The Cowboys have absolutely owned their NFC East rivals in recent history, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS against New York since 2017 — including 5-1 SU and ATS on the road.
Dallas does enjoy a home-friendly middle of the slate, playing away from Jerry’s World only twice in a 54-day stretch from Week 7 (bye) to Week 14. The Cowboys are 11-6 ATS at home the past two seasons, including an 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS count as hosts in 2022.
One of those home stands is the franchise’s annual Thanksgiving Day showcase, which has spoiled the holiday for Dallas bettors for more than a decade. The team is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Thanksgiving Day games.
Last season’s Turkey Day finish was tough to swallow, beating the Giants 28-20 but failing to cover as 10.5-point chalk, thanks to a last-second TD from New York. This year, the Cowboys are laying -6.5 vs.Washington on the holiday Thursday in Week 12.
Dallas Cowboys schedule spot bet
Week 6: @ Chargers
The Cowboys will enjoy some West Coast living in the fall, playing back-to-back outings in the Golden State in October.
Dallas visits San Francisco — the postseason boogeyman the past two years — for Sunday Night Football in Week 5 before coming to Los Angeles to challenge the Chargers on Monday night in Week 6.
Not only is this stop in SoFi the second of two straight road games, but it will be Dallas’ third road game in four weeks (at Arizona in Week 3) and its fourth away tilt in the opening six slots on the schedule.
The Cowboys are 2-point underdogs in what will be a very friendly venue in Inglewood, as “The Star” travels well and has legions of fans in La-La Land. My ratings are pretty much spot on with this look-ahead line at L.A. -1.98.
That road-heavy schedule and the oasis of a Week 8 bye make this a sticky situational spot for the Cowboys, especially with the Chargers having two weeks to prep given their Week 5 bye.
Star power: Dak Prescott props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +2,500 | +1,600 | +2,500 |
| OPOY | +10,000 | +10,000 | +5,000 |
| Pass yards leader | +1,300 | +2,000 | +1,600 |
| Pass TD leader | +1,600 | +2,000 | +1,500 |
| O26.5 pass TD | +100 | -118 | -115 |
| U26.5 pass TD | -120 | -108 | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 4,000.5 | 3,875.5 | 3,995.5 |
Best prop: Over 26.5 TD passes (+100)
Prescott finished with 23 passing touchdowns in a dozen regular-season games last year, following 37 TD strikes in 16 games in 2021. This offense still ranks among the best in the NFL and more of that scoring load could be on the arm of Prescott.
He has playmakers in CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Michael Gallup and the red-zone attack no longer has RB Ezekiel Elliott (12 TDs in 2022) to feed, opting for speedy RB Tony Pollard on screens and short passes.
The takeaways from the defense are going to set up Dak & Co. with extra possessions in great field position and if he can limit his interceptions, those drives will end in six. Full-season projections bounce between 26 and 29 touchdown passes for Prescott, which is solid +EV considering we can get the Over 26.5 at EVEN money.
Dallas Cowboys betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-point favorites or more in 10 of their 17 games, and are favored in 12 of them overall. I know Mike McCarthy is not regarded as an elite coach, but if the Boys go 12-5 or heaven forbid, 13-4, shouldn't the Dallas bench boss get a little love for coach of the year?
Currently, there is only one coach with longer odds to win COTY at bet365, as McCarthy sits at +4,000. I get that his situation seldom wins this award, but if Dallas wins the NFC (+600), he has to get some sniffs for COTY, no? The defense is legit, Zeke is gone, and Dak’s interceptions won’t be as prominent this year. Dallas could go 14-3 with losses in San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Buffalo. The rest of the schedule is doable.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
If you’re interested in placing a regular season-related futures bet on Dallas, have at it. They’ve proven to be a really good regular season team under Mike McCarthy with back-to-back 12-win seasons. They’ve also proven under McCarthy that they can’t be trusted in a big spot. That’s on both the head coach and Dak Prescott, who’ve gone out of their way to embarrass themselves in their last two playoff exits.
There’s a lot of talent on both sides of the ball for the Cowboys, and that will win games in the regular season. However, this appears to be a case of history repeating itself with McCarthy following in the footsteps of Jason Garrett, whose teams routinely underperformed in important games. Bet with your brain and not your heart by steering clear of bets for Dallas to make any noise come playoff time.
Dallas Cowboys trend to know
Dallas is undefeated in home divisional tilts the past two seasons, with a 6-0 SU record and 5-1 ATS result when hosting NFC East foes. It went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in those games last year (facing a Minshew-led Eagles team in Week 16).
AT&T Stadium has pretty much been an impenetrable fortress in those key matchups for a while, with the Cowboys owning a 16-2 SU mark and 14-4 ATS output at home to those division rivals since 2017 (including a 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS count in a disaster of a 2020 campaign with multiple QB injuries).
They’ve also gone 13-5 Over/Under when hosting NFC East opponents the previous six years.
Dallas Cowboys Divisional home games
- Week 10 vs. Giants (-5.5)
- Week 12 vs. Commanders (-6.5)
- Week 14 vs. Eagles (PK)
