The Dallas Cowboys treated the offseason the same way you would a bear that crosses your path in the woods: No sudden moves.
As other Super Bowl contenders were busy wheeling and dealing their way up the NFL food chain, the Cowboys did little to plug any roster gaps or even take care of their own.
Despite the penny-pinching — and the loss of heralded defensive coordinator Dan Quinn — Dallas remains among the top dogs in the NFC. The NFL odds have it near the top of the conference futures, win totals project 10 victories, and look-ahead lines have Big D favored in 14 games.
Are those lofty odds just a reflection of the Cowboys’ public appeal or their actual capacity? We find out in my 2024 Dallas Cowboys betting preview complete with NFL picks.
Dallas Cowboys odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +1900 |
| Win conference | +700 |
| Win division | +155 |
| Make playoffs | -210 |
| Over 10.5 wins | +150 |
| Under 10.5 wins | -180 |
Best futures bet: Second in NFC East (+120)
Not all shops book the “division finishing position” market, so you’ll have to search (bet365 has it). The NFC East remains a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia and the Cowboys backed into the 2023 division title due to the Eagles’ incredible belly-flop last December.
Dallas is favored in more games than Philly (14 vs. 13) but has a shorter win total (9.5 to 10.5) and a much tougher strength of schedule, both in terms of 2023 win percentage and projected wins in 2024. The Eagles also hold the home-field advantage for a crucial clash with the Cowboys in Week 17.
Dallas Cowboys at a glance: The Star is marred
Despite being one of the most publicly backed teams in the NFL, Dallas has proved profitable with a 33-18 ATS record the past three seasons (65%). A blend of high-powered offense and chaos-causing defense was the catalyst for those covers. In 2024, the offense is worse and the defense is under new management, yet the Cowboys’ spreads remain chalky.
What will win bets: Defense
If Dallas is to continue that cash flow, the defense needs to make a seamless transition from Dan Quinn to new coordinator Mike Zimmer and his 4-3 base. “Game-changing plays” have been the calling card for the Cowboys the last three years, stacking up 93 takeaways.
Those pivotal plays are tough to bank on each week (and make you susceptible to allowing home runs) but having Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence giving rival QBs night terrors helps the ball-hawking secondary sniff out mistakes. Zimmer is also focusing on stuffing the run after Dallas allowed the highest success rate per handoff in the land.
What will lose bets: Offense
Dak Prescott is coming off a career year in which he led the NFL in passing touchdowns. And to reward such an accomplishment, the Cowboys invested diddly-squat into the guys around him. Dak’s pass protection is no longer elite, the run game is a joke, and Prescott’s top target is currently in a contract holdout.
Dallas hung beefy scores last fall but did so against some craptacular teams, with 11 of its 17 games coming against clubs ranked 21st or worse in defensive DVOA. There’s no way the Cowboys average 30 points per game again in 2024.
Dallas Cowboys schedule + spot bet: Low money, mo problems
We’ll find out if Jerry Jones’ frugality is actually carelessness in the opening six weeks of the schedule. Dallas ranges between -1.5 and +2 in four of those half-dozen games, coming to a head as a 1-point home fave in an NFC litmus test against Detroit in Week 6.
The Cowboys have a win total of 9.5 with the Over juiced as high as -150 and the look-ahead lines giving the points in 14 contests. Dallas was 10-3 ATS as a point-spread favorite in 2023 and was laying -6 or more in nine of those outings. The 2024 board has them -6 or higher just three times.
The back nine of the schedule helps the Cowboys’ cause, with six of the final nine games in Arlington. Dallas is wonderful in Jerry’s World, with a 21-4 SU and 17-8 ATS mark at home the past three seasons. There could be value in buying back the Cowboys’ adjusted division or playoff futures come November.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Cleveland |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. New Orleans |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. Baltimore |
| 4 | Thursday, September 26 | @ New York Giants |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Detroit |
| 7 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | @ San Francisco |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Atlanta |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Philadelphia |
| 11 | Monday, November 18 | vs. Houston |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Washington |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | vs. New York Giants |
| 14 | Monday, December 9 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | @ Carolina |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Philadelphia |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Washington |
Spot bet: Week 13 vs. N.Y. Giants (-8, 45.5)
Dallas snapped a Thanksgiving Thursday curse with a win and cover in its annual home game last season, improving to 2-11 ATS over the last 13 holidays. This year, Turkey Day cooks up the Cowboys’ biggest spread of the season, laying -8 to the Giants in a mid-week matchup.
That divisional dinner comes with a side of “schedule spot,” as Dallas plays its third game in 10 days on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have a Texas-sized showdown with Houston on Monday Night Football in Week 11, putting them on a short week to travel to Washington in Week 12, and an even tighter turnaround for this Thursday game with New York.
A Step Back For Dak
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +1700 |
| To win OPOY | +6000 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +750 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +650 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 passing TD | +110 |
| Under 30.5 passing TD | -130 |
| 30+ passing TD | -160 |
| 35+ passing TD | +260 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 4,150.5 passing yards | +105 |
| Under 4,150.5 passing yards | -125 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | -220 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +300 |
Best prop: Under 30.5 passing touchdowns (-130)
In Year 1 of Mike McCarthy calling Brian Schottenheimer’s offense, Prescott pumped out the passing touchdowns, topping the pros with 36 scoring strikes in 2023. Dak has played a full slate in three of the last five seasons and tallied 30 or more TDs in each of those campaigns.
This year is different. He doesn’t have the same depth around him when it comes to the skill players or offensive line — the latter of which is scary considering Prescott’s past injury issues. Any downtick from Dallas’ stop unit will also impact Prescott's output, with the defense handing the ball back to the offense often and helping it rank Top 4 in TOP and second in plays per game in 2023.
Prescott’s projections sit on the fence at 31 passing touchdowns but with a toothless rushing attack, rival defenses can focus on slowing down the few weapons the Cowboys do have. Dak will be put to the test early on with four of the first six foes finishing 2023 ranked Top 10 in EPA allowed per dropback.
Dallas Cowboys trend: Divisional home games
We mentioned the Cowboys’ success in AT&T Stadium (68% in the last three regular seasons). Big D dials up the intensity even higher for divisional home games, having not lost to an NFC East foe inside Jerry’s World since 2020.
Dallas is a perfect 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in divisional home games the past three years, including a 3-0 SU and ATS jewel in 2023. In fact, going back to 2017, “America’s Team” has been the American Dream in those rivalries on home turf, boasting a 19-2 SU record and 17-4 ATS windfall.
Dallas Cowboys’ divisional home games:
- Week 10 vs. Philadelphia (-2)
- Week 13 vs N.Y. Giants (-8)
- Week 18: vs. Washington (-5.5)
Not intended for use in MA.
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