Daniel Jones Odds and MNF Props: Jonesing For Success

I wouldn't blame you if you took every opportunity to fade the New York Giants, but on Monday Night Football, in front of the MetLife faithful, Daniel Jones will lead his team to victory. Or at least — per our NFL picks — a productive day through the air.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 2, 2023 • 18:10 ET • 4 min read

As we comb through NFL Week 4 odds, it's become clear to me that the New York Giants have had a less than stellar start to this season and in particular Daniel Jones who has looked awful at times. On Monday Night Football vs. the Seattle Seahawks, Jones has the opportunity to get his team to .500 and build some momentum for the rest of October. 

This week's MNF odds have the Giants as short 2.5-point home pups with the total sitting at 47.5. 

To get in the mood for an exciting MNF matchup we’re going to be taking a long, hard look at Giants’ QB Daniel Jones odds and giving my best NFL picks (including a same-game parlay) based around the quarterback and his team.

For more MNF analysis, check out our Seahawks vs. Giants predictions and our best MNF prop picks

Daniel Jones MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Daniel Jones MNF prop pick

Over 231.5 passing yards (-110)

Monday Night Football is throwing us up a tasty battle between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants. Neither team has been at their best this season, with the Seahawks 2-1 and the Giants 1-2 after a terrible opening two weeks to the season.

I’m expecting an improvement in the Giants on Monday and central to that will be Daniel Jones. Danny Dimes isn’t a bad quarterback but my confidence in him hitting the Over in his passing yards at 231.5 is strong, not because of his ability but those around him.

The Giants have struggled with injuries at times this season but on Monday it looks like they’re going to be welcoming back two integral members of their offensive line. LG Ben Bredeson has been a full participant in practice this week after a concussion against the Cardinals in Week Two. Alongside him, Giants LT Andrew Thomas will also be returning. Thomas and Bredeson together will beef up the left side of that line and give Daniel Jones more time to pass. Bredeson only allowed two pressures in his two appearances this season and having him back will really improve the line and ultimately give Jones a platform to shine. 

The Seahawks have allowed 339.3 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and now that Jones is back with a strong line in front of him I’m confident that he’ll surpass his 231.5 passing yards line by some distance.

Prop: Over 231.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Daniel Jones MNF same-game parlay

Daniel Jones Over 231.5 passing yards

Daniel Jones Over 1.5 passing TDs

Daniel Jones Over 0.5 interceptions

Monday Night Football gives us a chance to enjoy a Same-Game Parlay and we have a +700 Daniel Jones-themed SGP for you to enjoy.

First up we’re starting with our best bet for MNF, which as detailed above is for Daniel Jones to get Over 231.5 passing yards. He’s a fairly middle-of-the-road quarterback but this Seahawks defense isn’t very good and has been leaking passing yards for fun through the first three games. With his offensive line now stronger than it has been in recent weeks I’m expecting him to be able to exploit that Seahawks passing defense far easier.

Following on from that we’re also backing Over 1.5 passing touchdowns for Danny Dimes. With that improved line I believe we see a more stable and confident performance from Jones in the pocket and as mentioned, the Seahawks have leaked yardage, as well as averaging 1.67 passing touchdowns given up per game. 

Finally to wrap up our Monday Night Football same-game parlay we’ll be backing Daniel Jones to get Over 0.5 interceptions. As we see often with Jones he’s capable of moments of brilliance, as well as some pretty poor pieces of play too. He has four interceptions on the season, one of which was returned for a TD, and at least one INT in every single game. That’s an issue and even with more time to throw I still expect him to throw a pick.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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