The Denver Broncos finally got their guy in Russell Wilson after what felt like three seasons of every disgruntled quarterback in the NFL rumored to be headed to Mile High.
Wilson joins the arms race of elite QBs in the AFC West and is free from the constraints of Seattle’s offense, which often had its quarterback fighting against the tide. An unleashed Russ is complemented by a competent defense for the first time since his Super Bowl runs.
The NFL odds suggest the Broncos will need all of it if they’re going to survive not only life in the deepest division in football, but a schedule that sends countless contenders at Denver, including a home stretch that looks like the top of the Super Bowl futures board. Oh, and the Broncos are working in a baby-fresh head coach and new coordinators. So, there’s that.
Get out the oxygen tanks and suck back a big breath of our Denver Broncos 2022 NFL betting preview.
Denver Broncos futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +2,000 |
| To win conference | +1,150 |
| To win division | +285 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 9.5 (Over -135) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -140 / No +120 |
Best futures bet: Make Playoffs — Yes -140
The Broncos’ season win total bounces between 9.5 and 10 and the lookahead lines have Denver pegged for at least 11 victories in 2022. The schedule has layups in the first half of the calendar, but shit gets real after the Week 9 bye.
I want to believe in double-digit wins for Denver, but I get stumped at nine W’s when scouring the calendar, and that’s with the Broncos splitting six AFC West matchups.
Rather than lay -130 with Over 9.5 wins, I can take Denver to qualify for the playoffs. It mixes my moderate optimism on the Broncos with my downward projections for teams like Las Vegas, Cleveland, Miami, and Tennessee.
Denver Broncos betting overview
What will win bets: DangerRuss
Russell Wilson is magic. No, I don’t mean the way soccer announcers say “magic." I mean that MFer is actually magic — straight out of Hogwarts. There are a handful of quarterbacks in the league who continue to connect on game-changing throws that have no business being completions. Russ is one of them.
You can call it luck, but Wilson has been lifting so-so offenses above and beyond with his special brand of wizardry for years. In Denver, not only does he have a cupboard stocked with quality ingredients and an operational offensive line, but a coach and system that actually wants to throw the ball.
During his time with the Seahawks (2012-2021), Wilson helped lead Seattle bettors to an 86-69-6 record against the spread (55.5%) in the regular season and missed only three of those games (coming last season with a busted finger). I’m a big believer in Wilson and think his impact is being undervalued.
What will lose bets: Coaching competition
The move to drop Vic Fangio for offensive-minded new head coach Nathaniel Hackett is a positive but the former Green Bay OC is cracking the seal on his head coaching career and does so with two coordinators new to those roles. That lack of experience worries the Broncos enough that they brought in Dom Capers as a “senior defensive assistant” — a role he played while babysitting Dan Campbell and Aaron Glen in Detroit last year.
Hackett & Co. not only find themselves up against an avalanche of top-tier NFL talent in 2022 but also some brilliant brains on the opposite sideline. Even against some of the weaker opponents on the sked, the Broncos will be outclassed by more experienced rival coaches. Then doo-doo really hits the fan in the home stretch versus strategists like John Harbaugh, Sean McVay, and Andy Reid (twice).
There will be at least a few weeks in which this young staff catches the blame for blowing a game, and Broncos bettors will be sour.
Denver Broncos game-by-game odds
The Broncos’ lookahead lines have them favored in as many as 10 games (including a OTB home date with the Jets. They were -7.5 before Zach Wilson’s injury), while some other early-bird books have as many as four pick’em lines for Denver. All in all, those spreads project 11 wins for the 2022 Broncos, which would clear their season win total of 9.5.
Pump the breaks on that Over bet, though. Denver’s sked ranks out 15th in standard strength of schedule, but it lines up across from the T-2 QB SOS — not only facing the murderer’s row of quarterbacks within the division but also taking on the likes of Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford.
There’s a bye in Week 9, separating what are two contrasting sides of the schedule. Denver plays some weaker foes in the first eight games, including Seattle, Houston, the Jets and Jacksonville (in London). It also gets two of its tougher adversaries at home in that stretch (San Francisco and Indianapolis) before a banana-balls “Hunger Games” run to the finish line from Week 10 onward, with five of those contests coming on the road.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Seattle | -5.5 | 41.5 |
| 2 | vs. Houston | -10.5 | 42.5 |
| 3 | vs. San Francisco | -2.5 | 46.5 |
| 4 | @ Las Vegas | PK | 47.5 |
| 5 | vs. Indianapolis | -3 | 45 |
| 6 | @ L.A. Chargers | +3 | 48.5 |
| 7 | vs. N.Y. Jets | OTB | OTB |
| 8 | vs. Jacksonville (UK) | -6 | 47 |
| 9 | BYE | ||
| 10 | @ Tennessee | PK | 45 |
| 11 | vs. Las Vegas | -4.5 | 46 |
| 12 | @ Carolina | -4.5 | 43.5 |
| 13 | @ Baltimore | +3 | 48 |
| 14 | vs. Kansas City | +1 | 48.5 |
| 15 | vs. Arizona | -3.5 | 48.5 |
| 16 | @ L.A. Rams | +3.5 | 47.5 |
| 17 | @ Kansas City | +4 | 48.5 |
| 18 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -1.5 | 44 |
Denver Broncos pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
Despite the acquisition of Russell Wilson, the Broncos are, in my opinion, clearly behind the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Denver Broncos early season forecast
The NFL schedule makers put a cherry on top of Week 1 with Wilson’s return to Seattle on Monday Night Football. The Broncos opened as 3.5-point road chalk and have been bet up as high as -5.5 as of this writing. The total is a diminutive 41.5 points — tied as the lowest Over/Under of opening week — and Week 1 totals of 42 points or less have produced a 6-10 O/U count the past three seasons.
A potential letdown spot awaits in Week 2, along with a massive point spread, with Denver giving 10.5 points to the visiting Texans. The Broncos will be on a short week to boot, but we get one of my favorite trends with teeth: Denver is 19-3 SU and 14-4-4 ATS in home openers since 2000. It all makes sense, with opponents still working their way into game shape and having to climb into the thin energy-sapping air of Mile High. This line has since climbed from Broncos -10 to -10.5 and could flirt with two touchdowns by Week 2.
This defense gets its first true test when the 49ers show up for Sunday Night Football in Week 3. Bookies have the Broncos as -2.5 home faves. Wilson and new OL coach Butch Barry (from Niners) bring plenty of knowledge to the table when it comes to San Francisco’s sets. Short home favorites (-2.5 or lower) were points spread poison in 2021, going 9-15 ATS, and are a collective 34-47 ATS (42%) the past three seasons.
Denver Broncos spot bet
Week 13 at Baltimore (+3, 48)
The whole back half of the Broncos’ 2022 schedule is nutso, but things get especially rough in Week 13. Denver comes off a Week 9 bye to visit Tennessee in Week 10, hosts Las Vegas in Week 11, then crosses the country to take on Carolina in Week 12 and Baltimore in Week 13.
The Ravens’ relentless rushing attack is back in action and will look to wear down a Denver defense playing its second of back-to-back travel games and third road stop in four weeks. On top of that sticky schedule spot, the Broncos could also get caught in the lookahead snare with a crucial AFC West home date versus Kansas City in primetime waiting in Week 14.
Denver Broncos totals tip
The jury is still out on just how strong this Denver defense truly is. The Broncos ranked among the top units in the league in many basic 2021 stats, including giving up less than 19 points per game and finishing eighth in yards allowed. But peeling back the onion, we see the advanced metrics weren’t so kind, with Denver rated 15th in EPA allowed and 20th in DVOA at Football Outsiders.
The Broncos offense helped protect the defense by playing a plodding style, running one of the slowest paces and chewing up the eighth-most time of possession — allotting foes the eighth-fewest plays per game. Denver was kneecapped by poor QB play and finished 26th in yards per point, which all trickled down to a 5-12 Over/Under record.
That inefficiency changes with Hackett at the helm. Wilson has plenty of weapons around him, both on the ground and through the air, and welcomes the 180 in offensive philosophy compared to his dark days in Seattle. While the pace may stay the same (Green Bay ranked 32nd in seconds per play the past two years), the Broncos will put up points.
The 2022 totals reflect last season’s output and perhaps overrate the defense, which faces a slew of top-tier passing games, while not taking into account just how good Wilson can be with a playbook built around him. Denver has nine totals of 47 points or lower, and six of those are at 45 or less. I believe we’ll see a flip in Over/Under fortunes this season.
Star power: Russell Wilson props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | +1,400 |
| Most passing yards | +2,000 |
| Most passing TDs | +1,600 |
| Passing TD total | 31.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing yards total | 4,100.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing INT total | 10.5 (Over -110) |
Best prop: Under 10.5 Interceptions -110
Wilson definitely has the potential to go Over on plenty of his season-long props, given the better setup than Seattle. On top of that potent pass game, let’s not forget Denver has a dominating rushing attack. Should the Broncos find themselves ahead in the second half, this team could handoff more and not need any of that classic DangerRuss magic.
Hackett’s system is extremely efficient and utilizes plenty of pre-snap motion and RPO to unearth soft spots and mismatches in coverage. He slow-plays the defense with short, snappy throws like a poker player holding pocket aces, then strikes for the home run when the timing is right.
Wilson consistently ranks out among the most accurate passers in the NFL (save for last season when he was down a finger in the back half of the schedule) and has posted double digits in INTs only four times during this career. Between the toned-down tempo, better system, and Wilson’s pinpoint arm, we’ll go Under on interceptions in 2022.
Denver Broncos trend to know
The Broncos undergo such an overhaul in coaching and quarterback that any trends emerging over the past few seasons are null and void. However, the one constant for this club is the home-field factor of Empower Field at Mile High — sitting 5,280 feet above sea level.
The thin air in Denver is notorious for sucking the energy out of opponents and that has a bigger impact earlier in the season as teams work their way into game shape (see home opener trend).
Since 2016, the franchise has lived in quarterback purgatory and leaned heavily on its defense. But despite that being baked into the Broncos’ totals — and helped along by the thin air factor — Denver is 6-9 Over/Under in home games between Week 1 and Week 5 since 2016, including a 2-7 O/U count in early-season home games the past four years.
Is Wilson enough to flip this total trend in 2022?
Broncos’ early home totals
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