A recent Hollywood trend has seen movie studios mothball finished films rather than release them, opting to take the tax credit instead of risking a box office bust.
The Denver Broncos and head coach Sean Payton did the same thing with former quarterback Russell Wilson, eating an $85 million shit sandwich with his release rather than sitting through another season with the polarizing passer.
Payton handpicked Wilson’s replacement, drafting Bo Nix in the first round to run his quick-hitting, timing-based passing playbook. Nix looked sharp in early preseason snaps and could be under center for Denver in Week 1.
Because of that, the NFL odds aren’t expecting much from the Broncos in 2024. The win total is listed at 5.5 (Under -120), which is the lowest in the AFC, and look-ahead spreads have Denver as an underdog in 15 of its 17 regular season games. Those projections are foreign for a Payton-led team, with the legendary game planner earning at least seven victories in each of his 16 years as a head coach.
Is the betting market missing the mark on the Broncos? We climb the mountain to find out with my 2024 Denver Broncos betting preview and NFL picks.
Denver Broncos odds
| Market |  |
|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +30,000 |
| Win conference | +15,000 |
| Win division | +1,800 |
| Make playoffs | +700 |
| Over 5.5 wins | +105 |
| Under 5.5 wins | -125 |
Best futures bet: Over 5.5 wins (+105)
The Denver Broncos have been the laughingstock of the league the past two and a half seasons, starting with the Nathaniel Hackett fiasco in 2022, rolling into the Russell Wilson vs. Sean Payton drama of 2023, and eventually, the massive cap hit the franchise chewed back just to get rid of DangerRuss. That doesn’t paint the prettiest picture in the eyes of the betting market.
Sure, the 2024 Broncos are led by a rookie quarterback (or some bad veterans), but Payton is one of the best game planners in the league and has a sound offensive line and respectable run game anchoring his offense. Defensively, Denver shook off a shite start and ranked sixth in EPA allowed per play from Week 6 onward. The Broncos also benefit from some situational spots, so six wins are within reach.
Denver Broncos at a glance: How Bo can you go?
We seem to get a standout rookie QB just about every season, and with Sean Payton holding his hand, Bo Nix has a secure safety net to play beyond expectations. However, while all eyes are on the QB decision, it’s Denver’s defense that holds the most weight.
What will win bets: Run game
Whichever QB is on the field, the Broncos must protect their passer with a reliable rushing attack. Denver entered 2024 with a sound group plowing the road, returning all but one starter from an offensive line that finished Top 3 in run block win rate.
Running back Javonte Williams has a high ceiling entering this year, and reports from camp say the third-year rusher looks like the guy who rumbled for 900 yards as a rookie in 2021. A successful run game will not only make life easier on the passing offense but also help Denver control the clock and limit the exposure of a suspect defense.
What will lose bets: Defense
The 2023 defense resembled the peaks and valleys of the surrounding Rocky Mountains, playing historically bad football to start the season, flipping the switch in the middle of the schedule, and then running out of gas in the home stretch.
On paper, this year’s group isn’t any better. The front seven could be the worst in the league and got bullied on the ground last year, ranking 27th in success rate allowed per handoff. The secondary is the strength, thanks to Patrick Surtain II, but the Broncos face arms like Mayfield, Rodgers, Herbert (twice), Jackson, Mahomes (twice), Cousins, and Burrow.
Denver Broncos schedule + spot bet: Sneaky Sked
Grading the Broncos’ 2024 slate is tough. Based on 2023 win percentage, Denver takes on the 20th-ranked schedule in terms of strength. But if you add up the projected 2024 wins for those same opponents, the calendar is among the Top 10 toughest in the land.
The Broncos will be up against it in the early weeks of 2024, with three road games in four weeks, including 1 p.m. ET starts at Tampa Bay and the N.Y. Jets. Denver’s lone home game is in Week 2, nullifying one of the better home-field edges in the NFL. The Broncos are 20-4 SU and 14-6-4 ATS in home openers since 2000, with the thin air impacting visitors as they work their way into game shape.
Denver also catches its non-conference opponents in tough spots this season, with the NFC South on deck. The Broncos visit a Saints team playing its third game in 10 days on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, host the Panthers for their second of back-to-back road trips and third away game in four weeks in Week 8, and welcome the Falcons in a similar road squeeze in Week 11.
| Week | Date | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Seattle |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Tampa Bay |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ New York (J) |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Las Vegas |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Los Angeles (C) |
| 7 | Thursday, October 17 | @ New Orleans |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Carolina |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Baltimore |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Kansas City |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Atlanta |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Las Vegas |
| 13 | Monday, December 2 | vs. Cleveland |
| 14 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Los Angeles (C) |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | @ Cincinnati |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Kansas City |
Spot bet: Week 4 @ New York Jets (+7.5, 42.5)
As mentioned, the start of the schedule doesn’t take it easy on Denver. The Broncos are in East Rutherford for a 1 p.m. ET start in Week 4, playing their second of back-to-back away games, and their third roadie in the opening four weeks.
Denver plays in Tampa Bay in Week 3, so Payton may opt to keep the club on the East Coast ahead of Week 4 rather than do two cross-country trips. The Jets will have the rest advantage as well, with New York hosting New England on Thursday night in Week 3.
Sean Payton has been an underdog of a touchdown or more only seven times in his career as a head coach, going 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS when getting that pile of points.
Nothin’ From Sutton
| Market | |
|---|---|
| To win MVP | +40,000 |
| To win AWARD | +8,000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +5,000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +7,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 5.5 receiving TD | +110 |
| Under 5.5 receiving TD | -130 |
| 7+ receiving TD | +175 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +1,000 |
| Market | |
|---|---|
| Over 800.5 receiving yards | -105 |
| Under 800.5 receiving yards | -115 |
| 1,000+ receiving yards | +300 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +800 |
Best prop: Under 5.5 touchdowns (-130)
Courtland Sutton is the only Broncos player with season-long prop markets. That tells you a little something about the offensive uncertainty around this team, namely with the QB1 decision.
You would think with Jerry Jeudy gone, Sutton would be the next man up on the depth chart, but the veteran receiver could take a step back. The WR room now features Marvin Mims and Josh Reynolds, as well as rookie Troy Franklin, who came with Nix from Oregon.
The Broncos were straight doo-doo in the red zone in 2023, scoring a TD on less than 51% of trips inside the 20-yard line. Sutton scored eight of his 10 total TDs inside the RZ on 17 targets but may not get those same looks in 2024, as Payton emphasizes the run game behind a solid offensive line. Player projections for Sutton sit short of six TDs with some models shorter than five touchdown grabs.
Denver Broncos trend: Home Underdog
The energy-sapping altitude in Denver gives the Broncos a unique home-field advantage, which is why we rarely see this team getting points at Mile High.
Well… until this season. Look-ahead lines have the Broncos pegged as pups at Empower Field six times in 2024.
Denver has been a home dog only six times total over the past three seasons, going 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in those rare spots. The Broncos have long been a tough out on top of the mountain, with a 29-19 ATS clip as a home underdog since 2000 (60%).
Payton has been a home underdog only 16 times as a head coach in the regular season, going 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS in those games, including a 24-9 upset of Kansas City as 7-point dogs in Week 8 last year.
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