Is the NFL about to have a new rushing king?
Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry is averaging 124 yards per game through seven weeks, putting him on pace to finish with 2,120 rushing yards across 17 games. That's 15 yards more than the NFL single season rushing record set by Pro Football Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson, who set the mark in 1984 during his sophomore season with the Los Angeles Rams.
Henry is leading the league’s No. 1 rushing offense and is paying +150 to break the rushing record this season at Sports Interaction. That represents 40% implied probability. The plus-money is warranted, however, as averaging 124 yards per game over the next 11 weeks will be no easy task for the 31-year-old.
Will Derrick Henry break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record?
| Outcome | Odds |
| Yes | +150 |
| No | -182 |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction on October 23, 2024.
Time's were different during Dickerson's historic season
Even when Dickerson set the record, he was at just 780 rushing yards after his first seven games and then averaged an insane 147.2 rushing yards per game over his final nine matches.
This was also during a time in the NFL when there were no bye weeks. A real argument can be made that even if Henry technically breaks the record, he will have done so in 17 games versus Dickerson’s 16.
Sure, Henry is proving doubters wrong this year and could be the only back to have two 2,000-yard rushing seasons, but almost everything has to go his way to keep up this pace and set the NFL rushing record.
Derrick Henry on the Ravens is unfair pic.twitter.com/YrENZVknww
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) October 22, 2024
Henry faces a tough road ahead
The Ravens still have four games against Top-10 rush defenses (EPA/rush), including three games against Top 3 teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers (2x) and the Los Angeles Chargers. They have just one game against a team in the Bottom 10 in EPA/rush remaining (Cincinnati Bengals).
I personally believe that if Henry can’t do it in 16 games, it isn’t his record, but that’s not what the betting market is asking.
Even with an extra game and a bye in Week 14, I’m on the NO for Henry to break the rushing record. His age, the difficulty of the upcoming matchups, and the volume are just too much to overcome. The odds of -182 might seem steep, but it's the right play in my opinion.
Pick: No (-182)
