The Minnesota Vikings head to the West Coast to face the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football.
Although the Vikes are coming off their first loss of the year, I'm expecting them to bounce back against a Rams team that is 2-4 to begin the season. That has me fading L.A. quarterback Matthew Stafford and backing a pair of Minnesota playmakers with my best Vikings vs. Rams prop bets and NFL picks for tonight's clash at SoFi Stadium.
Make sure to also check out our full Vikings vs. Rams predictions before placing your bets!
Vikings vs Rams TNF props
- Matthew Stafford to throw an interception - Yes (+106 at FanDuel)
- Aaron Jones o67.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
- Jordan Addison longest reception o19.5 yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Vikings vs Rams TNF props
Prop bet #1: Matthew Stafford to throw an interception - Yes
One of the most staggering stats from the Minnesota Vikings loss on Sunday was that Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff went 22-of-25 for 280 yards despite being pressured on a whopping 51.7% of his dropbacks. However, while Goff has been cool as a cucumber under pressure, Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has struggled facing the heat.
Stafford ranks 26th out of 27 qualifying QBs in passing grade under pressure (30.5) according to PFF, and he's also 24th in passing grade when blitzed (53.7). That's bad news with the Rams allowing pressure at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (26.4%) and Minnesota's stop unit ranked first in pressure rate (31%) and blitz rate (42.5%).
Stafford has thrown an interception in each of his last three games while the Vikes' defense leads the league in interceptions per game (1.8). With Stafford under constant pressure, expect his gunslinger mentality to surface and for him to throw another pick.
Prop bet #2: Aaron Jones Over 67.5 rushing yards
The Rams are 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (151.7) and they rank 28th in both defensive rush EPA and defensive rush success rate.
That run defense could be even worse this week with starting linebacker Troy Reeder sidelined by an injury and standout rookie Braden Fiske (seventh among all interior DL in run-stop win rate) listed as questionable.
Vikings running back Aaron Jones was limited in practice with a hamstring injury but has no injury designation and played through the same issue last week, rushing for 93 yards on 14 carries against Detroit’s strong run defense. Jones has now rushed for more than 90 yards in four of six games this year and I expect him to gash L.A. on the ground.
Prop bet #3: Jordan Addison longest reception Over 19.5 yards
Jordan Addison has been able to take advantage of defenses focused on stopping All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson. The second-year speedster has hauled in a reception of 25+ yards in each of his last three games, including a 51-yard catch last week.
The Rams have a weak crop of corners on the outside and poor safeties over the top, which has led to them ranking 26th in the league in defensive dropback EPA. They've been routinely getting torched deep and sit near the bottom of the league in explosive play rate allowed.
Sam Darnold has played well under center for Minnesota and he hasn't just been a game manager. He is second in the league with 13 completions of 20+ yards downfield and third in average intended air yards (9.2). Expect Darnold and Addison to connect on a big play against this leaky Rams secondary.
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