Derrick Henry TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 11

This week, my NFL player props spotlight is going to keep it simple. Just as Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel will keep it simple.

Just like famed early-2000s rapper Obie Trice kept it simple for his entire rap career (which may or may not have spanned a whole four years):

"Real name. No gimmicks."

The real name we're speaking is King Henry, and there are no gimmicks behind what Vrabel will do tonight — run Henry all game long.

My colleagues Jason Logan and Josh Inglis both had a cheesy flavor to their Titans vs. Packers betting preview and TNF player prop picks — but in this space, I'm all about Derrick Henry props.

So let's Escalade to the nearest Super 8 and get straight to business, as my free NFL picks like the Titans' main man to run wild in Lambeau.

And when we wake up, hopefully these bets got some teeth.

Derrick Henry TNF prop picks

• Over 22.5 rush attempts
• Longest rush Over 17.5 yards
• To score a second-half touchdown

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Derrick Henry TNF props

The set up

On numbers alone, Derrick Henry is an absolutely terrible matchup for the Green Bay Packers. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound monster has been terrorizing opposing defenses for years, but the Pack are among the league's worst at stopping the run.

Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most opponent rushing yards and fifth-worst opposing yards per carry, plus it has surrendered at least 153 rushing yards in five of its last seven games — with the opposition running at least 31 times in six of those games and the lead back averaging 22.

For Henry and the Tennessee Titans, they live and die (and live again) by the running game. They only sit seventh in the league in rushing attempts per game, but five of the teams ahead of them have highly mobile QBs, meaning they run as much as any RB-focused rushing attack in the league — with Henry getting the bulk of the work, as he leads the NFL with 202 rushing attempts and 22.4 carries per game. 

In addition to the numbers, the weather is what also works in our favor: The current TNF weather forecast shows wind gusts in the 20 mph range and temperatures in the single digits.

It will truly be the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field, which doesn't portend to an overly pass-heavy scheme to begin with, but add in how brutal Ryan Tannehill looked in his return from injury last week (19/36, 255 yards) and this script seems like it was is designed for Henry to run wild against a battered Green Bay defense on a short week.

King Henry had some light work over the past two weeks with just 36 carries, but the Titans were out-possessed by about 22 minutes combined in those games (including facing a stout Denver run defense last Sunday) and those games came on the heels of a four-week stretch where he averaged 28 carries per contest.

Vrabel's best bet at getting a win is to just continuously feed Henry the ball all night and let him punish the Packers. I think he's going to do just that and will happily take even money on the King to top a rushing attempts total that is equal to his season average in what should be an advantageous game script.

Prop: Derrick Henry Over 22.5 rushing attempts (+100)

There he go

Henry got off to a sluggish start to the season but started to kick things into gear in Week 4, when he averaged 135.6 yards per game on 5.26 yards per carry over a five-game stretch through to Week 9.

I originally was going to look at his rushing yards total, which started at 97.5 yards and now sits north of 100. While I still happily will bet that, I'm to instead focus on his longest rush total of 17.5 yards.

Henry is currently second among all RBs with seven runs of 20+ yards this season, but he has nine runs of 18 or more yards in 2022 — and not only does Henry get to face an already bad Green Bay rush defense... but the Packers have also given up more rushing yards in the second half this season.

Add in being on a short week, and they could be quite tired after taking a beating from trying to tackle the ultra-physical Henry in bitterly cold temperatures all game — don't be surprised if he wears the Pack down and breaks a big run or two later in the game.

Prop: Derrick Henry longest rush Over 17.5 yards (-118)

Second round's on me

Doubling down on that second-half dominance theory, I'm also looking at Henry to score a TD in the second half.

First, it's a fantastic value at +170 (considering his anytime TD is priced around -150), but I feel it's also a little mispriced because his splits this season are out of whack for his career numbers.

Henry enters this prime-time battle with seven first-half rushing touchdowns (and 5.5 yards per carry) against just two rushing scores (and 3.5 ypc) in the second half of games.

This is a stark contrast from last year, when he averaged a yard better (4.8 ypc vs. 3.8) per run in the second half, with eight TDs against just two first-half scores — or from his career numbers, where he averages 5.0 ypc in the second half (vs. 4.6 in the first half) and has 42 career rushing TDs in the final 30 minutes (against 31 in the first half).

With an incredibly run-heavy game script expected, a very bad run defense trying to stop him, and freezing cold temperatures making Henry tougher to tackle as the game progresses, I'd venture to say he looks more like the King Henry we've come to know — and he saves his best for the back end of the game.

Prop: Derrick Henry to score a second-half touchdown (+170)

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