If you're like me, you've been dissecting the NFL Divisional Round odds since they hit the board, looking for prime wagering opportunities. The only thing better than hitting a straight bet is cashing a lucrative NFL odds parlay, and I'll try to do just that this Saturday and Sunday.
I'm linking a rushing prop from Saturday's Texans vs. Ravens game with a passing prop from Sunday's Buccaneers vs. Lions tilt, while also throwing in my top play for the hotly-anticipated Chiefs vs. Bills showdown. I'll then take a deep dive into the Packers vs. 49ers Saturday night feature with a three-leg same-game parlay.
The Super Bowl odds for 2023-24 will be gone before you know it, so don't miss out on one of your last opportunities to view our free NFL picks.
Divisional Round NFL parlay picks
- G. Edwards u52.5 rush yds, J. Goff u1.5 pass TD, KC/BUF u45.5 +685
- J. Love o1.5 pass TD, D. Wicks o32.5 receiving yards, B. Aiyuk o4.5 rec = +415
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best Divisional Round parlay pick
Gus Edwards Under 52.5 rushing yards
Jared Goff Under 1.5 passing TDs
Chiefs vs. Bills Under 45.5
The Gus Edwards odds on his rushing prop are highest at DraftKings and BetMGM, but the former clocks in at +685 for this three-leg parlay, while the latter is at +669 as of Thursday afternoon.
Edwards has gone below 52.5 rushing yards in 11 of 17 games this season, including his eight-rush, 32-yard effort vs. the Texans in Week 1. The Ravens tailback is in the midst of a down year, not only in touches but in yards per rush (4.1). He's recorded 11 or fewer rushes in six of his last nine games and has gone below this rushing mark in each of those instances. His peak of 68 yards on 16 carries (4.3 yards per rush) vs. the Dolphins isn't all that scary either.
Houston's defense knows how to hold tailbacks in check, as they rank second in yards allowed per rush (3.5), not including their authoritative Wild Card win over the Browns.
I like the Jared Goff odds for him to have an off-day through the air. The Under on 1.5 passing touchdowns is priced at +120, and he's gone below that mark in nine of 18 games played in both the regular season and postseason. He has exactly one throwing score to his credit in four of his last six contests.
The Buccaneers' relentless pass rush (third in blitz rate) is also an effective one (seventh in sacks) and dropped Jalen Hurts three times last Monday.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been an Under machine (four straight) of late thanks to an underrated defense that checks in fourth in passing yards allowed per game. The passing game is Buffalo's bread-and-butter, so Josh Allen and the Bills could be hard-pressed to move the chains on Sunday night.
Patrick Mahomes could also have a difficult night vs. a Bills defense that's persevered through injuries all year long and still ranks seventh in passing yards allowed per game. The average Bills total over their last six contests comes in a full FG below this line, with the Buffalo defense allowing more than 17 points only twice in that span.
Best Divisional Round SGP
Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing TDs
Dontayvion Wicks Over 32.5 receiving yards
Brandon Aiyuk Over 4.5 receptions
We're back at DraftKings for this three-leg same-game parlay as we're getting the best value and best Dontayvion Wicks odds. BetRivers is at +410 for this identical parlay, while FanDuel is at +410 with Wicks' receiving line at 33.5.
The Jordan Love odds for him to throw multiple scores still look low, as he's reached two passing touchdowns in five straight games. That includes his three passing scores in the Packers' pasting of the Cowboys last Sunday.
Love has done this even as his attempts per game have shrunk due to positive game scripts in recent weeks. But with the 49ers figuring to have their way with the Green Bay defense, Matt LaFleur may have to rely on Love's arm more often in this spot, giving our passing touchdown prop a helping hand.
Even as Love's pass attempts have dropped and targets like Christian Watson get healthy, Wicks has blossomed into another key contributor. He's been targeted at least four times in eight of his last 10 games, and even though he had just two targets last week, he hauled them both in and scored on one, making it three straight games with a touchdown.
Over 2.5 receptions seems like a natural fit, but the -160 odds are steep. The +290 touchdown scorer odds are tempting, but Over 32.5 receiving yards at -118 is the smart play for this parlay. He's averaged 49.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games, getting to 33 yards six times.
The Brandon Aiyuk odds look fairest when evaluating San Francisco's NFL player props, at least when it comes to his reception total.
Excluding his partial appearance in Week 18, Aiyuk has hit the five-reception plateau in nine of 16 games, with seven of those coming in his last 10 games. If Jaire Alexander sits out or is limited for Green Bay, that's all the better for this leg.
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