Ladies and gentlemen, for the final time this season in the NFL odds, it’s teaser time!
With four games to choose from in the Divisional Round odds, we don’t have a lot of those traditional teaser pairings where you get to cross the key numbers of three and the seven, but that approach blew up in my face with the Cowboys last week, so maybe that’s not a bad thing!
Thankfully, fewer games also allow us to spend a bit more time with each game, so let’s dig into our latest NFL picks as the Super Bowl odds continue to narrow down!
NFL Divisional Round teaser picks
6-point teaser
- 49ers (-3.5)
- Chiefs (+8.5)
Picks made on January 17 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Divisional Round Teaser
49ers (-9.5 to -5.5) vs Packers
I’d prefer to get inside the three on a teaser, but I’m comfortable with the San Francisco 49ers at this number because when they win, they tend to do so by a lengthy margin. Of their 12 wins this season, 11 of them came by double-digits, and it would have been 12-for-12 if not for a meaningless Rams’ field goal at the end of the game in Week 2. They’ve also destroyed a lot of teams at home over the past few seasons, as they’ve won 16 of their last 22 games by 12 or more points.
I think the path to victory for the 49ers will come on the ground against a Green Bay Packers defense that is 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt, with that ranking dropping to 27th on the road. The 49ers finished the regular season fourth in yards per rush, so expect a well-rested Christian McCaffrey to be unleashed.
While you can’t knock the Packers’ performance last week, San Francisco won’t collapse under the pressure of the moment like the Cowboys did. The 49ers came out flying in the playoffs last season, destroying the Seahawks by 18 on the back of 505 yards of offense.
Chiefs (+2.5 to +8.5) vs Bills
Since 2020, these teams have met six times, with the Kansas City Chiefs either prevailing or losing by less than one score in five of those matchups.
In the most recent clash on December 10, a controversial offside call against Kadarius Toney deprived Kansas City of a potential game-winning touchdown. Nevertheless, the Chiefs still outperformed the Buffalo Bills in yards per play, third-down conversions, and red-zone efficiency.
I don’t think it’s very debatable that the Chiefs are better defensively. During the regular season, their defense ranked better in yards per play allowed while also generating more QB pressure.
Kansas City averaged 4.6 yards per rush during the regular season matchup between the teams, and I expect the Chiefs to pick up where they left off there. That success also came without leading rusher Isiah Pacheco, who should be extremely active against a Bills defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed per rush.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Not intended for use in MA.
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