Dolphins vs Bears Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Kmet Will Be More Involved on Sunday

Sunday sees the Miami Dolphins head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.

The Bears are 3-5, but the recent performances of Justin Fields are giving them some hope for the future. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are built to win immediately. Despite being 5-3, Miami is third in the AFC East and wants to challenge for a Super Bowl now.

Can the Bears beat the odds and tank Tua’s playoff chances? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears to find out.

Dolphins vs Bears best odds

Dolphins vs Bears picks and predictions

When the Dolphins face the Bears on Sunday, both teams will take the field knowing that they’re in very different places. The Dolphins finally know that they have their quarterback of the future, and with the brilliant receiving corps of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, they have the Super Bowl in their sights. 

Meanwhile, the Bears can’t be sure that they have their future QB just yet. Justin Fields was bad in his rookie season, and he started this one in a similar fashion. However, in the last few weeks, we’ve seen him improve. Last week’s defeat at the Cowboys showed his potential as Fields had 17 completions on 23 targets and continued to showcase his rushing ability.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of Fields’ improved performances will be tight end Cole Kmet. Big things have been expected of him since he was drafted in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The addition of Chase Claypool will add another big-bodied target that should help Kmet get open when he’s running routes.

Last week we saw the first touchdown of Kmet’s season, and he’s caught 14 of his 20 targets this season for 159 yards. His receiving line sits at 20.5 yards for this game, and it’s a line that he should go Over. He failed to get a reception in the first two weeks and was targeted just once each game. Since then, Kmet's seen more involvement in the passing game and has exceeded 20.5 receiving yards in three of the six following games.

While Miami's defense has been impressive at times this year, it's given up huge chunks of yardage to tight ends, even if the Dolphins allowed just three touchdowns to the position. They’ve given up 493 yards through the air to tight ends in eight games, with only three teams having allowed more.

With an improved Justin Fields against a Dolphins' defense that has allowed big games to tight ends, we can be confident in Cole Kmet surpassing 20.5 receiving yards this Sunday.

My best bet: Cole Kmet Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)

Dolphins vs Bears spread analysis

The Dolphins opened at 4.5-point favorites over the home team, and that line has held since opening. Miami has an incredible duo of receivers, and the addition of Bradley Chubb on defense will be a game-changer.

We may not be giving the Dolphins the respect that they deserve, given that we’ve seen them play a few games without Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are 4-4 against the spread, with the Bears 3-4-1 ATS, but I’d lean towards the Dolphins covering here.

The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two teams. Their quality on offense should be enough to cause serious problems for the Bears, who have now lost linebacker Roquan Smith.

In the last six against teams with a winning record, the Bears are 1-5 ATS, which probably says a lot about the period of transition that they’re currently in as they look to find out if Justin Fields is their future QB.

Dolphins vs Bears Over/Under analysis

I’ve got no strong lean on the points total, and it doesn’t look like the public money has been backing one side much, either. Since the line opened at 45, it’s only moved half a point to 45.5.

Given some of the talent on the Dolphins' offense, you can understand why people might expect a high-scoring game. But when I look at the Bears, I’m not sure that they’ll be able to hold up their end of the bargain.

For that reason, I’d lean towards the Under. The Under has gone 4-0 in the Dolphins' last four on grass and 5-1 in the Bears' past six on grass. It’s also worth noting that the Under is 11-5 in the Dolphins' past 16 games against teams with a losing record.

With question marks still hanging over Justin Fields, it’s smarter to expect the Bears to struggle finding the end zone, which is why a low-scoring game should be expected.

Dolphins vs Bears betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their past five games in November. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bears.

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