Dolphins vs Chargers Week 1 Picks and Predictions: Miami Avenges Last Season's Defest

Two teams with aspirations of making deep playoff runs will open their seasons against each other when the Dolphins travel to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers. L.A. is favored by three points while NFL odds are expecting a lot of scoring, as this is one of just two Week 1 matchups with a total in the fifties. 

Two big storylines in this one will revolve around how the Chargers defense completely shut Miami’s offense down in their Week 14 matchup last season, while each team also has a flashy new coordinator – Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator for the Dolphins and Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator for the Chargers.

Let’s dig into the matchup and my free NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Chargers on September 10.

Dolphins vs Chargers odds

Dolphins vs Chargers predictions

These teams met in a Sunday Night Football game in Week 14 of last season that the Chargers won 23-17, but the game wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. LA outgained Miami by 213 yards and completely shut down Tua Tagovailoa, who was just 10 of 28 on pass attempts with 145 passing yards. The game was a bad look for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, who made no positive adjustments while the team continuously failed to move the ball through the air.

While the Chargers defense was the story of that game, I think it’s safe to say it was an outlier performance. This was a bad defense last season, finishing 29th in yards allowed per play despite playing a lot of bad offenses, so I think it’s unlikely that the performance from last season’s game carries over to this one. 

I think a lot of the blame for that performance vs. the Chargers falls on the shoulders of McDaniel, who failed to mix in enough rushing plays when the pass wasn’t working. A repeat performance for the offense would be surprising considering how strong it was when Tua Tagovailoa was on the field. Miami scored 29 or more points in half of the games that Tua started and finished. Despite Tua missing a chunk of games, it still finished third in yards per play.

Even if the Chargers can’t pull off another strong defensive performance, there’s still a strong case to be made for them. This is a team that was held back by its offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, last season. As a result, he got canned and the team happily brought on Kellen Moore who came over from Dallas. With Moore as their OC, Dallas was Top 6 in points per game in three of his four seasons and I think similar results could be in store for a talented Chargers offense.

The Dolphins defense could also be a unit on the rise with Vic Fangio coming in as defensive coordinator. His defenses are commonly among the best in the NFL and he has a lot of young talent to work with. Miami also might have an ace up its sleeve on the coaching staff, as defensive assistant Renaldo Hill was the defensive coordinator for the Chargers last season. Perhaps he’ll have some difference-making insights to help Miami’s offense.

Bottom line is that this one is close. In that case, I’ll happily take the Dolphins as a 3-point dog in an environment where the home team doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage. 

My best bet: Dolphins +3 (-110 at bet365)

Dolphins vs Chargers same-game parlay

Dolphins +3 
Chargers 2H points Under 13.5 

+181 at FanDuel

While the Chargers offense could look a lot different this season, it had a major flaw from last season that it’ll need to overcome. The Bolts fell off a cliff in the second half, where they ranked 28th in points at just 8.0 per second half — a drop-off of 7.2 points compared to the first half.

Justin Herbert also saw his QB rating drop 15.8 points from the first to second half, so maybe this is something Vic Fangio will be able to take advantage of. This is a nice correlated play that would also support the Dolphins on the spread, especially if they keep it tight in the first half.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dolphins vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

When these teams met in December of last season, it was Miami that was favored by three points. Now we have a six-point line move in favor of the Chargers, which I don’t think adds up. Yes, L.A. was a little banged up in that game, but what’s changed to warrant such a dramatic move? When looking at it like that, I think it’s fair to say Miami is being undervalued by a few points.

As for this total, it’s the second-highest of the week, but it’s worth considering that Chargers’ home games were relatively low-scoring in 2022 at an average combined score of 44.4 points. That said, this matchup closed with a total of 55 for last season’s game. Of course, it fell way Under, but it’s rare to see two of the exact same games, so it could be argued that we’re getting a few points of value on the Over.

Dolphins vs Chargers betting trend to know

L.A. is 6-12 on the 2nd half moneyline in its last 18 games. As pointed out, the Chargers failed to generate much offense in the second half of games last season. Meanwhile, Miami was sixth in second-half points in road games. The Dolphins come in at +106 on the second-half moneyline if this trend tickles your fancy. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Chargers.

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