Dolphins vs Colts Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Offensive Slogfest Hits Lucas Oil Stadium

If you're expecting explosive plays in Indianapolis, think again. With Anthony Richardson and Tyler Huntley starting under center, Jeremy Jones breaks down why Sunday’s matchup will be dominated by the defenses.

Jeremy Jones - Betting Analyst at Covers
Jeremy Jones • Betting Analyst
Oct 19, 2024 • 18:39 ET • 4 min read
Anthony Richardson Indianapolis Colts NFL
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A couple of banged-up AFC squads will meet on Sunday when the Miami Dolphins take on the Indianapolis Colts.

Both teams' offenses are struggling to begin the season, and my Dolphins vs. Colts predictions believe this game is setting up for another low-scoring affair. 

Read more in my NFL picks for October 20.

Dolphins vs Colts prediction

My best bet
Under 43.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Although the Indianapolis Colts will be getting Anthony Richardson back for Sunday's matchup against the Miami Dolphins, that is not necessarily a great thing for the offense.

Veteran backup Joe Flacco has arguably looked better under center during A-Rich's absence, boasting a 102.2 passer rating in three appearances this season. Meanwhile, Richardson was a turnover machine before getting injured in Week 4, sporting a dismal 3/6 TD-INT ratio.

Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa is out again for the Dolphins and likely leaves Tyler Huntley to start again. The Dolphins have averaged only 253.7 total yards over their last three games with Tua at quarterback, and they've managed just 12.0 points per game this season, including 10.0 points per game without Tua.

On the other end, the Dolphins defense ranks fifth in yards allowed in the NFL. They also rank third in passing defense and have only allowed three passing touchdowns all season. Considering star running back Jonathon Taylor is still injured, it will be very tough for the Colts to find the end zone in this contest.

With both offenses set to falter, bank on low-scoring output in this one.

Dolphins vs Colts same-game parlay

Under 43.5

Josh Downs Under 4.5 receptions

Anthony Richardson Under 198.5 passing yards

With Richardson at quarterback, there is one wide receiver that is a clear fade.

Josh Downs has developed much better chemistry with Flacco under center, as was the case with Gardner Minshew when he was the Colts' starter last season. The former Tar Heel is averaging 5.22 targets and 3.6 catches per game with Richardson, compared to 6.6 targets and 4.8 catches with any other Colts QB.

While Richardson eclipsed 198.5 passing yards in the first two games of the season, he barely surpassed it. Now he faces a much tougher pass defense, as the Dolphins have kept four of the five quarterbacks they have faced below 200 passing yards.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Dolphins vs Colts odds

Dolphins vs Colts live odds

Dolphins vs Colts opening odds

  • Spread: Miami +4.5 (-110) | Indianapolis -4.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Miami +175 | Indianapolis -210
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110)| Under 42.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Dolphins vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The line opened at Indianapolis -4.5 before falling to 3.5 as of Friday afternoon. 
  • The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last six meetings and seven of the last eight.  
  • The total opened at 42.5 before climbing to 44.5 and settling at 43.5.
  • Four of the last six matchups between these two teams have gone Under the total.

Dolphins vs Colts betting trend to know

Miami has only hit the game total Over in seven of its last 19 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Colts.

Dolphins vs Colts game info

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Sunday, 10-20, 2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Dolphins vs Colts latest injuries

Dolphins vs Colts weather

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Jeremy Jones - Covers
Betting Analyst

Jeremy Jones was born and raised in Lexington, Kentucky and has been a massive Wildcats fans since the moment he came into the world. He wrote his first sports article at the tender age of 11 after attending a local AHL hockey game, and a few years later was writing professionally for sites such as Sports Rants, BetAmerica, and TwinSpires.

Jeremy holds a Masters in Sports Administration from Eastern Kentucky University and utilizes all seven betting options available in Kentucky to shop for odds and promos and find the greatest EV in every wager he places.

His best piece of sports betting advice is to stick to consistent unit sizes for every wager. He acknowledges there will occasionally be a bet that has a huge EV and you can play multiple units in one bet, but cautions against raising your unit size, because you can quickly lose all your winnings if you hit a minor cold streak.

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