The Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown has been circled on the calendar since the 2023 NFL schedule dropped last spring.
NFL bettors are gifted a potential Super Bowl preview — and a reunion of Alabama Crimson Tide alums — when the Philadelphia Eagles host the high-octane Miami Dolphins in prime time.
The NFL odds for this colossal non-conference clash pit Philadelphia as a slight home favorite, and the Over/Under total is the tallest on the Week 7 odds board, with plenty of firepower taking the turf at Lincoln Financial Field.
I dissect the SNF odds and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Eagles on October 22.
Be sure to check out our SNF player prop picks and Jalen Hurts prop picks for even more winning wagers!
Dolphins vs Eagles odds
Dolphins vs Eagles predictions
In my eyes, the Sunday night game goes one of two ways: total shootout or total Eagles dominance. Either route, Philadelphia is putting up points.
The Eagles have been sputtering on offense this season, leaving a ton of tallies on the table with red-zone woes and miscues. Granted, they played some solid defenses and four of their first six games have come away from Philly.
The two games inside The Linc have produced scores of 33 and 34 points, respectively, in regulation, beating up bad defenses in Minnesota and Washington. And Week 7 sends another so-so stop unit the Eagles’ way.
Miami’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading. On the surface, you have a team that has allowed 21 or fewer points in four games. However, those low scores came against offensive opponents with less rigor than a pack of Twizzlers.
The Fins have fended off the likes of New England, Carolina, Denver, and the New York Giants. They’ve built big leads and made things easier on their defense, as those opponents are stuck with a one-dimensional playbook to catch up.
Conversely, the Dolphins have been busted open like a pinata for big points against capable offenses in the L.A. Chargers and Buffalo Bills. And when you dive into the advanced metrics – which account for the strength of those foes – Miami sinks to the bottom of the league.
The Dolphins are just 27th in Defensive DVOA at FTN and sit 23rd in EPA allowed per play, as well as 46.7% in success rate allowed down-to-down. That’s a dreadful forerunner heading to Philadelphia, where the Eagles are second in first downs per game and move the chains on key third-down possessions at an NFL-best 50.57%.
The biggest weakness for the Eagles has come when knocking on the door of the end zone. Philadelphia is just 10 for 22 in the red zone so far in 2023 but did make improvements last Sunday. Philly scored two touchdowns in three red-zone possessions against the Jets, who ranked third-best in RZ defense entering Week 6.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, come into primetime allowing foes to find pay dirt on 66.67% of red zone tries (26th) and watched as the Chargers and Bills finished a collective 9 for 11 inside their own 20-yard line in those two outings.
Adding to this advantage is some inside info on Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who served as a special consultant to the Eagles during their playoff run last winter.
While you would think that would give Fangio a window into Philly’s defensive schemes, both Fangio and Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni told reporters it was more of a one-way street with Fangio serving up insights rather than receiving.
"I was giving them more information than they were giving me," Fangio told the media of his time working with the Eagles. "If there is any advantage it’s in their favor."
Philadelphia has played Over its team total in both home games this season and is 8-4 O/U on team totals inside Lincoln Financial Field the past two seasons, averaging more than 30 points per contest in that span.
My best bet: Eagles team total Over 26.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Dolphins vs Eagles same-game parlay
Philadelphia Over Team Total 26.5
Jalen Hurts Over 46.5 Rushing Yards
Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
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The Eagles will expose a Dolphins defense that has crumbled against capable offenses this season.
Jalen Hurts faces a solid Dolphins pass rush and will break away from that pressure, with projections as high as 77.5 yards rushing.
Philly will focus on slowing down Tyreek Hill, which leaves Jaylen Waddle with wiggle room. He’s projected for 70-plus yards from many models while facing a dinged-up Eagles secondary.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dolphins vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
The offseason odds opened with Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite at home in Week 7, but that spread was tempered by the first six weeks of the season.
The look-ahead line, before last week’s results, listed Philly as a 2.5-point chalk, and even with Miami rolling over Carolina to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS and the Eagles getting upended by the New York Jets, the official Week 7 spread hit the board at -2.5.
From there, this line has slinked to as low as Philadelphia -1.5 with some early play coming in on the Dolphins, however, it has climbed back to its original spot and it wouldn’t surprise me to see some sportsbooks flirt with a field goal spread before kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night.
My NFL power ratings produced an unadjusted spread of Eagles -2.79 and Cover Consensus is showing 54% of picks taking the points with the Fins. Anchoring this spread under the field goal is several injuries on the defense for Philadelphia, most notably in the secondary.
The Dolphins have certainly made an argument for themselves in 2023, moving from 30/1 to 9/1 to win the Super Bowl after an electric start to the season. That said, the validity of this team is still unclear.
Miami has been able to rough up bottom-tier teams so far but has failed to answer the bell against tougher foes, such as Week 4’s drubbing against the Buffalo Bills. Going back to last season, we saw Mike McDaniel’s team come up short whenever stepping up in competition and this Week 7 date with the Eagles is a lofty step.
Philadelphia tasted defeat for the first time this season with a weird loss to the Jets last week – a game I’m sure the Dolphins wish Philly had won so as to not be refocused for this AFC encounter. Philadelphia is one of the best two-way teams in the NFL, ranking seventh in Total DVOA.
Despite that 5-1 SU record, the Eagles have yet to play a complete game on both sides of the ball and that’s led to a 3-2-1 ATS count and Philly bettors wanting more. The Eagles offense has puttered in recent games, most notably coming up short in the red zone. They’ve left points on the table with a 45.45% TD percentage inside the 20-yard line on the season (23rd).
Miami could be the cure to those scoring blues, considering Vic Fangio’s defense sits 23rd in EPA allowed per play. The Dolphins have taken on several dud offenses through six weeks, which has skewed their basic defensive stats. But the Fins are 27th in Defensive DVOA, which accounts for the strength of opponents, and allowing the 25th most points per play.
The Over/Under total for this Sunday night showcase hit the board at 51.5 points and has crept up to as high as 52.5 before getting bought back down to the original number. As of Thursday, Covers Consensus shows 67% of picks on the Over.
The outcome for the total could depend on how Philadelphia approaches things on offense. Should Miami come out quick and get up on the scoreboard, the Eagles will be forced to play much faster than they’d like. Philly has found a very methodical motor so far, ranked seventh slowest in tempo in terms of seconds per snap.
If the Eagles defense can contain Miami’s up-tempo offense, the offense will use up plenty of possession time with a dedicated ground game sitting third in EPA per handoff and facing a Dolphins defense ranked 25th in the mirror image of that advanced stat. Philly will take its time navigating down-field and keep Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and this explosive Miami offense on the sideline.
Miami enters Week 7 with a 4-2 Over/Under record on the season. Philadelphia sits at 3-3 O/U, but has gone Under in its last two outings.
The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for wind gusts up to 24 mph and game-time temperatures in the low 50s Sunday night.
Dolphins vs Eagles betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU and ATS when laying a field goal or less since 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Eagles.
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Dolphins vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, October 22, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Eagles -2.5, 51.5 O/U |
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