Even at 9-4, the Miami Dolphins can’t make any mistakes in the final two weeks if they want to punch their tickets to the playoffs. Standing in their way in Week 16 are the Las Vegas Raiders, who have lost four of their last five games and have just a 2 percent chance of making the postseason with a 7-7 record.
Las Vegas will be without starting QB David Carr (groin) for Saturday night’s showdown, as NFL odds had the Dolphins open as 2.5-point road favorites (47.5 O/U). NFL betting fans should take note of Miami’s success this year ATS, as it is a league-best 11-3 ATS on the season.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. Raiders on Saturday, December 26 (8:15 p.m. ET).
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview
Weather
Sunday’s game will be played indoors at Allegiant Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions of other Week 16 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Dolphins: Mike Gesicki TE (Probable), Jakeem Grant WR (Questionable), DeVante Parker WR (Out), Myles Gaskin RB (Probable), Jerome Baker LB (Questionable), Ereck Flowers OL (Questionable), Solomon Kindley G (Out), Shaq Lawson DE (Out), Bobby McCain S (Questionable), Kyle Van Noy LB (Questionable).
Raiders: Derrick Carr QB (Probable), Hunter Renfrow WR (Probable), Henry Ruggs WR (Probable), Jeff Heath S (Out), Jonathan Abram S (Questionable), Damon Arnette CB (Probable), Maliek Collins DT (Questionable), Clelin Ferrell DE (Out), Nick Kwiatkoski LB (Out), Takkarist McKinley DE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 7-0-1 in the Raiders’ last eight games as a home underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Raiders.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Miami rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa helped the Dolphins overcome a six-point halftime deficit to eliminate Bill Belichick and the Patriots from the playoffs last week. The feat is even more impressive as Tue was without his top two receivers, top tight end and No. 1 running back. It wasn’t a particularly pretty offensive showing, but the young QB got it done – and covered – against a coach who has a great record of dominating rookie signal-callers.
Getting receiver DeVante Parker back would be a huge boost for Miami as the Raiders are paper-thin in the secondary and made Justin Herbert look like an MVP last week. Parker was hopeful to play in Week 15 before being inactive but could be on the right side of playing this Saturday.
Starting at QB this week for the Silver and Black will be Marcus Mariota. The former Titan filled in well for the injured David Carr last week but cost his team the game with a fourth-quarter interception near the red zone in a 24-24 game. The defensive-minded Brian Flores will get a full week to game plan against a backup QB and an offense that suddenly can’t run the ball with its RBs.
With an 11-3 ATS record, Miami has been putting cash in backers’ pockets all year. Las Vegas is all but eliminated from the playoffs and may struggle to bounce back after last week’s overtime loss to a division rival.
PREDICTION: Miami -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Miami has the best ATS record, but Las Vegas owns the best Over record this year at 10-3-1 (tied with Tennessee). The Raiders haven’t seen a total this low since their weather-affected game in Cleveland on November 1. At home, Las Vegas is 5-1-1 O/U as games at Allegiant Stadium are averaging 59.8 total points.
A handful of injuries to Las Vegas’ defensive backs has the Raiders being a pushover for any opposing passing attack. If Miami gets healthier at receiver, returning Parker, Mike Gesicki or Jakeem Grant, we could see this total go up.
The step down from Carr to Mariota didn’t seem drastic last Thursday, as Mariota’s rushing ability gave the Raiders’ offense a new way to move the chains. Even if receivers Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow can’t suit up, TE Darren Waller and WR Nelson Agholor are enough to keep this offense going through the air. Vegas may have to pass the ball as its running backs are averaging 3.2 yards per carry over the last two weeks.
PREDICTION: Over 47.5 (-110)
First Quarter Spread Pick
The Dolphins have had plenty of success ATS this season, but a lot of that has to do with their performance in the first quarter: Miami leads the league in first-quarter points scored per game at 6.9 (8.7 1Q points per game on the road). The offense’s 1Q results have translated into a first-quarter ATS record of 9-5 on the year—for a 22.2 percent ROI.
The Raiders have failed to cover the first fifteen minutes in eight of their 14 games this year. Only four teams are allowing more first-quarter points at home than Jon Gruden’s club at 7.9 per contest.
Mariota could also struggle out of the gates against a Miami defense that is holding opposing QBs to the third-lowest passer rating.
PREDICTION: Miami Dolphins first quarter -0.5 (+124)
Dolphins vs Raiders Betting Card
- Miami -2.5 (-110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins first quarter -0.5 (+124)
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