After 18 short and exciting weeks of NFL regular season football, the playoffs have arrived with Super Wild Card weekend!
This weekend gives us six games to immerse ourselves in, starting on Saturday when the Cleveland Browns head to Houston to take on the Texans. It all wraps up on Monday Night Football with a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This week's Wild Card odds are interesting, to say the least, and as teams start to get eliminated, you can be sure the Super Bowl odds will fluctuate.
Join me as I break down the NFL odds and offer my best free NFL picks for NFL Wild Card player props and specials.
NFL Wild Card player props
- C.J. Stroud Under 310.5 passing yards (+110)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 242.5 receiving yards (+100)
- Cowboys to progress further than Eagles (-140)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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C.J Stoud Under 310.5 passing yards (+110)
The Houston Texans may have won the AFC South and earned a home playoff game in the process, but the fact they come into Wild Card weekend as underdogs tells you all you need to know.
C.J. Stroud has been nothing short of solid all season long for the Texans, but rookie quarterbacks making their first postseason start tend to struggle. Throw in the fact the Cleveland Browns defense is elite, and you have yourself a number that's far too inflated.
The Browns defense ranks first in total yards allowed (290.7) and passing yards allowed (164.7). If the Texans are to have any chance of winning this game, they'll need to rely on their run game to help alleviate some of the pressure that Stroud will be under all game long.
While I know this is a "playoff" special, meaning accumulative yards count in subsequent rounds, I don't believe the Texans win this game, and I don't believe Stroud sniffs 300+ passing yards.
PICK: C.J. Stroud Under 310.5 passing yards (+110 at DraftKings)
CeeDee Lamb Over 242.5 receiving yards (+100)
Is this the year the Dallas Cowboys finally live up to expectations and at least reach the Super Bowl?
Well, this is likely their best shot at doing so with Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb enjoying a kind of chemistry that very few QB/WR duos achieve.
Lamb has been unconscious of late, posting 443 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Two of those games (118 yards and 227 yards) came against the Dolphins and Lions, both of whom are playoff teams.
Lamb should be the focal point this week against a Green Bay Packers side that's in the bottom half in terms of yards allowed per game. He'll have a favorable matchup against whichever DB the Packers choose to put on him, and a 100+ receiving-yard game is very much in play.
Should the Cowboys win the game, their next opponent will be one of the Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or Philadelphia Eagles, all of whom have been piss-poor at defending the pass this season.
The Cowboys will go as far as Prescott and Lamb take them, and I'm backing Lamb to deliver the goods.
PICK: CeeDee Lamb Over 242.5 receiving yards (+100 at DraftKings)
Dallas Cowboys to progress further than Philadelphia Eagles (-140)
As you can see from my CeeDee Lamb selection, I believe the Dallas Cowboys are sitting on a deep postseason run.
They've got a killer 1-2 punch with Prescott and Lamb and the running game can be effective with Tony Pollard.
The defense is a Top-5 defense, and with a very winnable game up first vs. the Packers, this gives us an edge.
As for the Philadelphia Eagles, well, they are limping into the postseason in the worst shape possible. They are just 1-4 over their last five games and now must hit the road for a Monday Night Football matchup against a Bucs side that may be getting hot at the right time.
Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are both questionable, and I'm not sure the Eagles should be laying three points in this game.
If the Eagles do win, I don't like their chances against San Francisco (assuming the Lions beat the Rams) or against the Cowboys (if the Rams upset the Lions).
Note: this is a three-way market, so if both teams are eliminated in the same round, the 'tie' option would be the winning side.
PICK: Dallas Cowboys to progress further than Philadelphia Eagles (-140 at DraftKings)
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