Eagles vs Colts Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Gameplan and Matchup Favor Taylor's Rushing Output

The Philadelphia Eagles find themselves in a rare spot — coming off a loss — when they visit the Indianapolis Colts in Week 11.

Philadelphia was dealt its first defeat of the season this past Monday, losing outright as a big home favorite to Washington, and now travels on the short week to take on an Indianapolis squad in transition.

The Colts were the laughing stock of the league after abruptly replacing their head coach with former center Jeff Saturday ahead of Week 10’s trip to Las Vegas. But Indianapolis walked out of Sin City a winner and has drawn sharp action early this week, which pushed this spread through the key number of a touchdown.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Eagles vs. Colts on November 20.

Eagles vs Colts best odds

Eagles vs Colts picks and predictions

A big part of the Colts’ surprise win for Jeff Saturday in Week 10 was the return to glory for running back Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 147 yards on 22 carries — his biggest day since Week 1.

Taylor is expected to anchor this offense once again in Week 11, with promoted offensive play caller Parks Frazier rolling out a dumbed-down playbook and Saturday telling the media that he wants to get Taylor more touches.

Indianapolis was only handing off on 35.46% of snaps before last weekend, for an average of just 23.4 rushing attempts as a team. The Colts ran the ball 30 times against the Raiders, with Taylor getting the bulk of those carries.

A former center for the franchise, coach Saturday has spent the majority of his time working with the offense since accepting the job in Indy and told Pat McAfee he called out the offensive line and their run blocking ahead of Week 10, which worked with the Colts picking up 6.9 yards per carry.

The Eagles present a different defensive challenge than Las Vegas but are susceptible to the ground and pound. Philadelphia ranks 31st in EPA allowed per handoff and has given up big gains on the ground in recent weeks, with Dallas marching for 134 yards rushing, Pittsburgh posting 144, Houston rolling to 168, and most recently, Washington tallying 152 yards on 49 carries Monday.

Philadelphia’s defense enters Week 11 banged up in the front seven. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and linebacker Haason Reddick were limited in practice, and DT Marlon Tuipulotu hit the IR following Monday’s loss. The Eagles’ rush defense rank 22nd in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate (30%), and the defensive line sits dead last in run block rating at Football Outsiders.

Taylor was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week after his performance on Sunday, which will puff up his prop totals for Week 11. However, he is undoubtedly the Colts’ bell-cow back — especially after trading RB Nyheim Hines — and his 60 snaps last Sunday were his most since Week 1.

With a coaching staff trying to keep things simple and play keep-away from this high-powered Philly offense, Taylor will get his touches and then some in Week 11.

My best bet: Jonathan Taylor Over 85.5 rushing yards (-115)

Eagles vs Colts spread analysis

The look-ahead line before the events of Week 10 has Philadelphia laying 10.5 points on the road. However, following the Colts’ victory over Vegas and the Eagles' loss at home to Washington — as well as the injury to standout tight end Dallas Goedert — Philly reopened at -7.5 on Tuesday morning.

That opener drew early sharp play on Indianapolis, which pushed this spread through the key number of a touchdown and down as low as Colts +6.5 as of Thursday morning. However, there has been buyback on the Eagles at that point, and some online books are back up to Philly -7.

The Colts are outclassed on both sides of the ball, but given the short turnaround for this road trip and the Eagles’ weakness to the ground game, Indy could stick to the rushing attack and keep the ball away from Philadelphia’s high-octane offense. The Colts also do a good job slowing down opponents on the ground, owning the second-lowest EPA per handoff allowed in the league while giving up 3.8 yards per carry.

Philadelphia’s offense is rooted in the run, handing off on 50.51% of snaps, but can attack downfield as well. The Eagles hold the second-highest success rate per drop-back, but the loss of Goedert is bigger than the spread may equate for, as he’s been one of Jalen Hurts’ favorite targets, and his ability to pick up yards after the catch is among the league’s elite.

DraftKings is reporting 53% of bets on Philadelphia, but 79% of the early handle riding with the Colts and the points. Covers Consensus shows 56% of picks on the Eagles.

Eagles vs Colts Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under opened at 45 points on Tuesday morning and has slowly slimmed to 44 as of Thursday. Indianapolis made the move back to Matt Ryan at quarterback after a failed few weeks with Sam Ehlinger under center. Ryan has had mixed results in his first season in Indianapolis, and the Colts' offensive line will have their work cut out for them trying to keep their less-than-mobile passer clean in Week 11.

Philadelphia ranks seventh in pressure rate per dropback with 29 sacks on the season, despite blitzing only 24% of the time. The Eagles do have some injuries on the stop unit heading into Week 11, with Fletcher Cox and Haason Reddick listed as questionable and Marlon Tuipulotu on the IR.

There are injuries on the offense for the Eagles, besides Goedert, as WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were limited in practice this week. Center Jason Kelce is among the wounded as well, limited in his participation.

Philadelphia enters Week 11 as the No. 3 offense in EPA per play and boasts a 6-3 Over/Under mark, having played Over the total in four straight games.

The Colts, on the other hand, are 31st in EPA per play and own a 2-8 O/U count on the season. DraftKings is reporting 51% of bets on the Over but 71% of money riding on the Under.

Eagles vs Colts betting trend to know

Going back to 2015, the Eagles have gone 12-3 to the Over in non-conference road games, including 3-1 when visiting AFC foes the past two seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Colts.

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