The Philadelphia Eagles gave their starters some rest during a Week 8 blowout win over the Steelers and have plenty to play for tonight against the Houston Texans.
The home side got trampled on the ground last week by Derrick Henry, but on a short week and an inflated rushing total, Miles Sanders’ rushing opportunities might not be abundant. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has also been spinning the deep ball lately.
Check out my best NFL prop picks for Thursday Night Football’s Week 9 matchup between the Eagles and Texans.
Also, be sure to read Jason Logan's full TNF betting preview.
Eagles vs Texans props
- Mills Under 234.5 passing yards
- Sanders Under 76.5 rushing yards
- Hurts longest completion Over 37.5 yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Eagles vs Texans TNF props
Survival Mills
Davis Mills finished with 152 passing yards last week but went into his last drive with just 64 passing yards to his name. That came against a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 10 spots worse than the Eagles’ in EPA/dropback.
His matchup on Thursday is exponentially more difficult, and if Nico Collins doesn’t suit up after missing last week and getting a DNP tag on Monday, Mills will be in real trouble. Brandin Cooks dealt with a wrist issue last week and finished with just six targets last week as well.
Last week, his offense had 12 total drives, with 10 of four or fewer plays. Mills was consistently targeting his tight ends and backs and finished with an average depth of target of 3.6 yards.
Games with 100+ Passer Rating for Davis Mills
— NFL on CBS ???? (@NFLonCBS) October 31, 2022
Starts
2021 4 11
2022 0 7 pic.twitter.com/Lc9Tfoj1BO
On the season, Mills ranks 29th in completion percentage with a clean pocket, 33rd in Comp% vs. zone, and 50th in expected points added, per PlayerProfiler. Now he faces the No. 2 pass defense in EPA/dropback (3rd in success rate), which allows just 183 passing yards per game (4th) and a 58% Comp% on a short week.
Mills' 234.5 passing yard total is also a three-week high which has me loving the Under. Just because he's a big underdog doesn't mean yards aren’t guaranteed. The game script is not in our favor here, but Kenny Pickett finished with less than 200 passing yards on 38 passes last week in a game with plenty of garbage time in Philly.
Davis Mills Prop: Under 234.5 passing yards (-125)
Table Sanders
The Titans and Derrick Henry didn't hide the fact that they were going to run the ball vs. the Texans, and Houston couldn't do anything to stop it. Henry finished with 219 rushing yards, and the Titans passed the ball just 10 times.
Enter the Eagles, who run the ball at the fifth-highest rate in football (51.36%) and have three solid running backs they can share the load with on a short week.
Philly blew out the Steelers last week as a double-digit favorite and rested its starters late in the game. That same issue should be a concern for bettors Thursday night after Miles Sanders saw just nine carries in Week 8.
Sanders’ rushing total sits at 76.5 this week, which is 11 yards over his average rushing total of 56.1 yards on the season. Many bettors will point to Henry’s big day last week vs. this defense, but I’m a little concerned about volume here and an inflated total.
The shorter week could also force Nick Sirianni to rotate his backs more, and with Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell healthy and combing for 51% of the snaps last week, that's a real possibility.
Sanders hasn’t been consistently breaking huge runs either on the season, as he has just four carries of 20-plus yards on the season and one of 30-plus yards. Fifteen other RBs have four or more carries of 20-plus yards.
With the Eagles being very concerned about conditioning ahead of the short week, rushing opportunities could be less concentrated for Sanders. Coupled with a high rushing total, I’m hitting the Under on his rushing total of 76.5.
In his two games with a short week last year under Sirianni, Sanders averaged eight carries for 50 yards.
Miles Sanders Prop: Under 76.5 rushing yards (+105)
Truth Hurts
Jalen Hurts has been showing off his long ball of late as the ultra-talented signal-caller had four touchdown passes of 27 yards or longer last week in a blowout win where he didn’t play much of the last quarter.
He’s also completed at least one pass of 31 yards in six of his seven games. What he lacks in passing volume, he makes up for in quality. He is completing a 30-plus yard pass every 17.66 attempts on the year, which is the second-best rate in football.
AJ Brown had a huge Week 8, which included four 27 yards or longer grabs. Houston rookie corner Derek Stingley has not adapted well to the NFL speed and ranks 93rd of 116 in coverage, per Pro Football Focus. If Stingley doesn't cover Brown, 5-foot-11 Steven Nelson will have a size disadvantage vs. Brown, who has over 30 pounds on the corner.
With Houston having to commit to stopping the run, Hurts and his deep threats will get their shots early in this game. Game script is not our friend here, but it wasn’t last week either when Hurts went downfield often and finished third in air yards per pass at 6.9 with the fifth-highest aDOT of 10.82.
Houston has accumulated the second most missed tackles this season. With few markets open early in the week for TNF, Hurts’ longest completion of Over 37.5 yards (-115) is projecting as one of the better props available.
Jalen Hurts Prop: Longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115)
