Eagles vs Texans Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Philly Soars Out of the Gate

While Philadelphia and Houston clash on the diamond, the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans also tangle on Thursday Night Football in the NFL's Week 9.

Undefeated Philadelphia is a beefy favorite for this midweek matchup, laying 13 points on the road — currently tied as the second-biggest spread of the 2022 campaign. That lofty line is earned, however, as the Eagles have flexed their muscles as one of the best two-way teams in football, en route to a 5-2 mark against the spread.

Houston, on the other hand, has just two wins on the year and has covered only once in the past five outings (1-3-1 ATS) thanks in part to an offense that ranks near the bottom of most statistical categories. 

I break down NFL odds for the spread and Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Eagles at Texans on November 3.

Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' favorite TNF player prop picks and Jared Hochman's A.J. Brown player props spotlight. 

Eagles vs Texans best odds

Eagles vs Texans picks and predictions

I highlighted this primetime game in my weekly “Bet Now, Bet Later” article when the Week 9 odds hit the board Sunday night, suggesting that if you did like the Eagles on Thursday you would want to get them quickly at -13 and avoid what could easily be a larger line come kickoff.

We saw early movement to -13.5 but as of Tuesday, I’m a little surprised most shops are still dealing Philadelphia as 13-point chalk. Part of the problem could be the short week to prep for a poor opponent but bettors could also be wary of the Eagles’ so-so second halves.

Philly is the best first-half team in the land, averaging 21 points in the opening 30 minutes and boasting a 1H DVOA that sits tops in the NFC at Football Outsiders. However, after amassing 147 total points in the first half of games, the Eagles mustered just 49 total points in second halves with that DVOA sinking to 13th in the closing two quarters.

That disappearing act in the final 30 minutes can be worrisome when laying the lumber with a road favorite on a quick turnaround, especially when visiting the likes of the Texans. Philly definitely has bigger fish to fry after its 7-0 start.

So, with that in mind, if you can’t stomach the near two-touchdown full-game spread, feel confident in taking the Eagles to at least cover the first-half line, which is as low as -6.5 at some shops.

Philadelphia followed suit in Week 8, jumping out to a 21-10 halftime lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, and showed up for a 14-3 edge in the second half for a 35-13 victory as an 11.5-point home favorite this weekend.

The quick turnaround for travel to Houston on Thursday night shouldn’t hamper the Eagles’ prep for the Texans, according to head coach Nick Sirianni. He told the media that the team did the bulk of game prep and strategy during their recent bye in Week 7 and will focus on just keeping the intensity high in their limited practice reps this week.

Philly already runs the second fastest pace per play in first halves (26.05 seconds per play) and some speculate the short week could have Sirianni opting for a slimmed-down play sheet, meaning a simple yet quicker approach with the football.

Beating up on Houston shouldn’t be too tall a task, considering how strong this Eagles offense has been — namely the rushing attack. Philadelphia sits Top 5 in the major advanced rushing metrics, including No. 1 in success rate per handoff, and faces a Texans’ run defense allowing 6.3 yards per carry over the last three games and ranks out dead last in Run Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders.

Offensively, Houston is just as toothless. It sits 27th in 1H DVOA and averages only eight points per first half on the season, with that slimming to 6.3 points over the last three outings. Against Tennessee on Sunday, the Texans managed a lonely field goal before the break.

This Philly stop unit is easily the best defense the Texans have tangled with this season. Houston has some injury concerns across the offensive line heading into the short week, and pass protection is a major issue as QB Davis Mills has been pressured on 26.4% of dropbacks — the sixth-highest pressure rate for quarterbacks.

Not only are the Eagles a perfect 7-0 SU heading into Week 9 but they also boast a 7-0 ATS mark in the first half. You can find Philadelphia as low as -6.5 with some push protection baked into that derivative at -137 while many shops are at -7 -115.

My best bet: Eagles first half -6.5 (-137 at UniBet)

Eagles vs Texans spread analysis

The look-ahead line for this non-conference clash was sitting at Eagles -9 last week but with Philadelphia crushing Pittsburgh as 11.5-point home chalk and Houston losing 17-10 to Tennessee, the official Week 9 opening spread hit the board at Philly -13 on Sunday night.

Some books quickly jumped to Eagles -13.5 in those first few hours of action but buyback on the Texans has an industry consensus of -13 settling in as of Tuesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of picks are backing Philadelphia.

The quirks of mid-week football and the Eagles’ second-half power outages have tethered this spread below two touchdowns, as these opponents sit on opposite ends of most major analytical categories. However, any potential trade deadline moves (including rumors of Houston shopping WR1 Brandin Cooks) could help bump this spread from its current perch.

The big spread is warranted considering the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, and I expect this to flirt with two touchdowns by kickoff on Thursday night as the public pounds the undefeated road team. Philadelphia has seen many of its 2022 spreads rise closer to game time. 

Eagles vs Texans Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under number hit the board at 44 points on Sunday night and has stayed put for the most part. Some shops are down to 43.5 points as of Tuesday afternoon.

The Eagles offense is one of the most dynamic in the league, backed by a relentless rushing attack and a dual-threat QB in Jalen Hurts. The Philadelphia passing game has become just as dangerous, thanks to Houston’s old AFC South rival A.J. Brown. He’s coming off a three-TD performance against Pittsburgh and the Eagles' air attack owns the third-best EPA per dropback in the land.

Heading into this short week, Sirianni has already laid the foundation for schemes and play calling thanks to a Week 7 bye, which some speculate could lead to a short call sheet and simple-yet-faster offense from the Eagles. Philadelphia sits third in plays per game and runs a very fast pace out of the gate in first halves.

Houston, on the other hand, ranks 26th in points per play and has scored more than 20 points in a game only once in 2022. The Texans haven’t had much success throwing the ball (29th in DVOA) and Cooks’ availability is up in the air. On the year, Houston is averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. Running the ball has been a bit better, with rookie Dameon Pierce leading the way, but the Texans are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry over the last three contests.

Philadelphia enters Thursday Night Football with a 4-3 O/U mark while Houston is 3-4 O/U on the year.

Eagles vs Texans betting trend to know

Houston is 5-13 SU and 4-11-3 ATS in non-conference games since 2018, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against NFC competition in 2021. The Texans lost but pushed with the spread in their lone non-conference clash so far in 2022, losing 23-20 to Chicago as 3-point underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Texans.

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