Ezekiel Elliott MNF Spotlight: Player Props for Wild Card Round Monday Night Football

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be hosting the final game of Wild Card Weekend at Raymond James Stadium this Monday night, but the Dallas Cowboys boast the better record, and are deserving favorites on the road.

Part of the reason why the Cowboys went 12-5 in the regular season was another productive year from Ezekiel Elliott. I’m bullish on a trio of his NFL props in this spot, and feeling particularly good about one of those three wagers, which I’ll single out as my Best Bet.

Without further ado, here are my Ezekiel Elliott player prop picks for Monday night.

Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Buccaneers betting preview, as well as our best Monday Night Football prop picks. 

Ezekiel Elliott prop pick and same-game parlay

• Prop: Anytime touchdown (+115)
• SGP: Anytime TD + o13.5 rushing attempts + o50.5 rushing yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Ezekiel Elliott best bet

The Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott included, looked listless in a 26-6 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 18. As a result, Elliott — who rushed only eight times for a mere 10 yards in that defeat — saw a nine-game touchdown-scoring streak go up in smoke. However, he looks like a good bet to get back into the end zone on Monday night.

Elliott last faced the Buccaneers in the 2022 NFL season opener, and while he didn’t score a touchdown in that tilt, he did prove effective as he rushed for 52 yards on 10 carries. Dallas was forced to abandon the run to some extent in the second half, as they trailed on the scoreboard and lost Dak Prescott to injury. 

Zeke should get his share of carries in the red zone, where the Cowboys have paced the NFL in touchdown percentage (71.4%). The Buccaneers defense is a lackluster 26th in the corresponding category, allowing the opposition to find the end zone in 62.5% of their drives that reach the 20-yard line.

Tampa has often been beaten by teams that commit to the run game this year. For example, Nick Chubb and the Cleveland Browns — fifth in the league in rushing attempts per game — scored two rushing touchdowns when they conquered the Bucs in Week 12. The San Francisco 49ers (ninth in rushing attempts per game) ran it into the end zone three times in a 35-7 trouncing in Week 14.

The Cowboys rank sixth in rushing attempts per game, so expect them to feed Zeke early and often, especially in scoring range.

Prop: Anytime TD (+115)

Ezekiel Elliott SGP

Anytime TD

Over 13.5 rushing attempts

Over 50.5 rushing yards

+350 at PointsBet

As we mentioned above, the Cowboys’ commitment to the run game makes an Elliott anytime touchdown prop at plus-money very appealing on Monday night. Logically, prop bettors should also expect him to exceed both his rushing attempt and rushing yardage lines.

Elliott is listed at what seems like a generous line for Over bettors in the attempts department. He’s toted the rock at least 15 times in 12 of the 15 games he’s suited up for this season. Teams haven’t been afraid to test Tampa’s run-stuffing unit this year, as they’ve been run upon 26.9 times per game, 17th-most in football. 

The Bucs’ defense has proven accommodating against the run, as they’ve surrendered 120.7 rushing yards per game (15th in the NFL), and 4.5 yards per rush (19th). Bettors should trust in Elliott getting more than enough carries to clear a fairly low line. 

He’s reached the 51-yard plateau in all but four of the games he’s taken part in this season. Aside from Dallas’ Week 18 debacle, he came close to the 51-yard threshold in those other games, with 49 yards against the Commanders in Week 3, 42 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 (with two touchdowns in a blowout win), and 37 yards against the Tennessee Titans’ league-best run stoppers in Week 17, a game the Cowboys had well in hand. 

SGP odds: +350 at PointsBet

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